Can a consistent long-term profit be acheived in horseracing markets?

[Bobby Fischer]

In this thread I will attempt to make wagers that show a consistent long-term profit. I will show the math behind my plays.


rules:
$1,000 bankroll

goals:
+0.15 ROI
$2,000 bankroll

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

yes play what byk puts out..

[XIIPointStables]

Just play Dutrow off the claim and you're all set.

[Bobby Fischer]

I can't get a value play I like at Belmont all day!

[Bobby Fischer]

woodrunner just went from unbettable to completely unbettable...

[Bobby Fischer]

Belmont Race7 $89 to show on #7 Giant Storm

Estimated $2 price=2.8
est. hit%=.8
Value=1.12
edgefactor=.896
wager amount=89.6

[sdjcom]

Sounds good, even MIT programs such as this hit short term losing streak and ended up roi profit so low not worth trouble. I will tell you a secret that everybody knows in horse racing how to make a profit, but very few can sit and wait for the chance. It,s a secret yet everyone KNOWS it . in one word
the secret is..... WINDFALL THE ONLY WAY TO STAY AHEAD OF GAME, IS BY HITTING WINDFALLS PAYOFFS, PERIOD. But 99.999 % of horseplayers want to bet tickets not win money. wagering is 75%- handicapping 25%. and you have to be bankrolled .

[blackthroatedwind]

Well, at least Fischer's off the hook.

[sdjcom]

anwser is in thread 215

[hi_im_god]

if i were moving this thread, i'd chose esoteric.

that's just me.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

if i were moving this thread, i'd chose esoteric.

that's just me.

I was thinking Myanmar.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I was thinking Myanmar.

The junta won't let foreign aid in when there's a cyclone, what on earth makes you think they'd even for a second entertain the idea of taking this?!

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

The junta won't let foreign aid in when there's a cyclone, what on earth makes you think they'd even for a second entertain the idea of taking this?!

Are you somehow equating this to foreign aid?

[Bobby Fischer]

Race2 Belmont $2 place #5

very small wager here on the 2yo race , 4 entries , assymetrical win/place pools

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

Race2 Belmont $2 place #5

win, return $3.00
new bankroll = $1112.25


Comments: seemed like a great value play. Expected $3 back in the place pool on the 6/5 shot. #5 was full of juice, recently gelded and well bet and faced 4 entries. His main rival was not recieving lasix. Didn't want to invest in a 2yo first time starter race, hence the "fun" size wager.

[ArlJim78]

i'm on the edge of my seat.

[Bobby Fischer]

Belmont Race4 $10 to win on #3 Polonui
estimated $2 price=7
est. hit%=.3
Value=1.05
edgefactor=.315
wager amount=10

+

Belmont Race4 $24 to show on #3 Polonui
estimated $2 price=3
est. hit%=.7
Value=1.05
edgefactor=.735
wager amount=24

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

Belmont Race4 $10 to win on #3 Polonui


Belmont Race4 $24 to show on #3 Polonui

lose, loss = $34
new bankroll = $1077.25



Comments: Clemente layoff horse didn't fire. Did not appear to enjoy slow pace on slow turf, was well held & rank through traffic for most. May not be much horse, or could surprise in a future weak turf sprint.

[Bobby Fischer]

Belmont Race9 $1ex bx 1,2,3,9 =$12