2/2 (GP): Gr. I Donn; Gr. II Swale

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by CSC

Why are you ignoring his last 3 races, if you saw them no one can say the pace would have affected him to the point of being beaten 20 lengths or so by Spring At Last and more so being outpaced or outstayed by Kiss The kid. Anyway I hope there are many that share this opinion, the better the odds on Daaher the next time he races.

I'm not ignoring them at all. Why would you say "if you saw them" as if to suggest that I didn't? I did and I don't come to the same conclusion as you do. If anyone is ignoring anything, it's you. That's not meant to be critical of you at all though. But think about it. Which of his last three races presented circumstances anywhere close to what he faced today? None of them. Go look at Kiss the Kid's record. He's shown a couple of wins at 8.5f and one at 1m, 70 yds. He's also shown on several occasions that, while he did weaken late, he held up decently well at distances well over a mile. Daaher, for any number of reasons, the fact is that he's now run three two-turn stakes races and hasn't come close to being effective.

In any case, the opinion that I'm giving is NOT that this was a true indication of how Daaher would perform under today's circumstances. There could very well be something wrong with him. I was only saying that before automatically assuming there is and writing this race off, consider that there might not be.

[Independent George]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I think it's a mistake to discount his performance today. We don't know how good Daaher is in two-turn races when he's facing some pace pressure. Perhaps today's race is indicative of how he'd run everytime he is faced with a scenario like today. When you say he's obviously better than we saw today, you are basing that assumption on having seen him run under totally different conditions today. Before automatically assuming it was just an off day, consider that it might not have been.

I don't get this entire post, and I've read it 5 times.Talk about speaking from both sides of one's mouth !! "Perhaps its indicative.....perhaps its not". "Maybe it was an off day.....maybe it was not." Really took a stand here....no matter how Daaher runs in his next race you can say that you had it covered !!!!
And as far as the bolded sentence, didn't we find out how good Daaher is when faced with some pace pressure, today??????

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

That's a very convenient response but frankly flat out unfair and an odd cheap shot from you. While obviously I am wrong a fair share of the time, overall the advice I give here is pretty strong, and over time my opinions have proven pretty strong. I take the opposite view of people because I believe they are wrong....and they usually are when I challenge them.

As regards today's races I told people that Fairbanks and Einstein had no chance and I literally begged a poster not to bet heavily favored Wincat in the Swale. I also endorsed the winner of the Whirlaway. Please, regale us with your plethora of pre-race opinions that have come to fruition recently.

I take a stand. And I'll take my chances with my overall record. In fact, I do in a pretty big way on a daily basis.

Ok, so let me get this right. You say that luckily for me, you know why I post what I do and that's ok. I say that luckily for you, I know why you post what you do and I'm taking a cheap shot? Classic.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Independent George

I don't get this entire post, and I've read it 5 times.Talk about speaking from both sides of one's mouth !! "Perhaps its indicative.....perhaps its not". "Maybe it was an off day.....maybe it was not." Really took a stand here....no matter how Daaher runs in his next race you can say that you had it covered !!!!
And as far as the bolded sentence, didn't we find out how good Daaher is when faced with some pace pressure, today??????

I took my stand when after the Cigar Mile, I said that I didn't think there was anything to take from the race and that I thought Daaher was not nearly as good as that performance indicated. I'm not trying to be covered at all with the horse. I'll evaluate what I think are his chances in his next race when I see the conditions of that race.

The point of the post was just to say that it's not automatic that something was wrong with him because he didn't run to expectations that may have been unrealistic. When a horse that's proven at a certain game, take Smokey Stover in the BC Sprint for instance, runs completely off form, it makes sense to suggest that something was wrong. When a horse that hasn't established ANY form under the circumstances that he faced today comes out and fails miserably, I don't think it's wise to make the same assumption.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Luckily for you, I know you just post the opposite of what I say just because you don't want to agree with me for fear that it would make you have to acknowledge that other people could be right sometimes.

Here is what you said. It is untrue...and there are plenty of examples to prove that. That is why this is a cheap shot.

I didn't take a cheap shot....I called it like I see it. I would be happy to tell you I am wrong when you produce a few examples of strong opinions you have had that came to fruition. For instance, when Indian Blessing wins the KY Derby I will bow to your greatness. In fact, I will do that when she even runs in the KY Derby.....provided she isn't eased.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I'm not ignoring them at all. Why would you say "if you saw them" as if to suggest that I didn't? I did and I don't come to the same conclusion as you do. If anyone is ignoring anything, it's you. That's not meant to be critical of you at all though. But think about it. Which of his last three races presented circumstances anywhere close to what he faced today? None of them. Go look at Kiss the Kid's record. He's shown a couple of wins at 8.5f and one at 1m, 70 yds. He's also shown on several occasions that, while he did weaken late, he held up decently well at distances well over a mile. Daaher, for any number of reasons, the fact is that he's now run three two-turn stakes races and hasn't come close to being effective.

In any case, the opinion that I'm giving is NOT that this was a true indication of how Daaher would perform under today's circumstances. There could very well be something wrong with him. I was only saying that before automatically assuming there is and writing this race off, consider that there might not be.

I hope you don't take this the wrong way, but the bases seem to be loaded(covered)with this post. True his races in Canada were not overly impressive it is also fair to say at that stage of his career he was not the horse he is today. While I agree to a point he still has to prove he can run at as well at a mile to a mile and an eighth, today was not the day to make that determination.

[Smooth Operator]

Throat, we gonna see back-to-back BC Juvy/KY Derby winners?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Smooth Operator

Throat, we gonna see back-to-back BC Juvy/KY Derby winners?

I hope so....but we'll have to see how far War Pass can carry his speed. He's a very terrific horse, but, obviously he has to answer the ultimate question of stamina.

I'll easily take his talent against any 3YO out there. But, sometimes that isn't enough.

[justindew]

THE END!

Great thread guys. I laughed. I cried. I laughed some more.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by CSC

I hope you don't take this the wrong way, but the bases seem to be loaded(covered)with this post. True his races in Canada were not overly impressive it is also fair to say at that stage of his career he was not the horse he is today. While I agree to a point he still has to prove he can run at as well at a mile to a mile and an eighth, today was not the day to make that determination.

One question. How do you know it wasn't? If it's because he didn't run to expectations, I'd like to know how those expectations were reached. Were they expectations or assumptions? I had seen no reason going into the race that he would be able to handle the conditions today and therefore, I had no expectation of him winning. I will admit that I didn't think he'd finish as bad as he did but to be honest, and I realize that this won't be believed, his finish today surprised me less than a win would have. I went in thinking one of two things would happen:

-he'd vastly improved, would take on the challengers, run them off of their feet and would dominate the race and prove his recent form was not just due to circumstances being in his favor but that he was really that good.

-he still was the same horse that had had previous troubles trying stakes company and going two turns and would be nowhere to be found at the end.

I was betting on the latter scenario. I didn't figure on anything in between. It was inconceivable to me that he could handle the conditions and still get beaten by a better horse.

When I handicap, or at least try to, what I try to always go against is a horse that's favored to do something because it's assumed he can do it when facing other horses that have proven they can.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by justindew

THE END!

Great thread guys. I laughed. I cried. I laughed some more.

A similar reaction to what most have to your Derby blog.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Here is what you said. It is untrue...and there are plenty of examples to prove that. That is why this is a cheap shot.

I didn't take a cheap shot....I called it like I see it. I would be happy to tell you I am wrong when you produce a few examples of strong opinions you have had that came to fruition. For instance, when Indian Blessing wins the KY Derby I will bow to your greatness. In fact, I will do that when she even runs in the KY Derby.....provided she isn't eased.

Again, you return to Indian Blessing. It's not even worth mentioning that I said I think she's got NO SHOT to win it. You obviously want to keep suggesting that I said she does.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

A similar reaction to what most have to your Derby blog.

Dammit!

Ersatz!

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

One question. How do you know it wasn't? If it's because he didn't run to expectations, I'd like to know how those expectations were reached. Were they expectations or assumptions? I had seen no reason going into the race that he would be able to handle the conditions today and therefore, I had no expectation of him winning. I will admit that I didn't think he'd finish as bad as he did but to be honest, and I realize that this won't be believed, his finish today surprised me less than a win would have. I went in thinking one of two things would happen:

-he'd vastly improved, would take on the challengers, run them off of their feet and would dominate the race and prove his recent form was not just due to circumstances being in his favor but that he was really that good.

-he still was the same horse that had had previous troubles trying stakes company and going two turns and would be nowhere to be found at the end.

I was betting on the latter scenario. I didn't figure on anything in between. It was inconceivable to me that he could handle the conditions and still get beaten by a better horse.

When I handicap, or at least try to, what I try to always go against is a horse that's favored to do something because it's assumed he can do it when facing other horses that have proven they can.

Funny, you didn't make one post regarding this horse, and your assessment of his chances in the Donn, before the race. But, apparently, you had the whole thing figured out.....after the race.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

One question. How do you know it wasn't? If it's because he didn't run to expectations, I'd like to know how those expectations were reached. Were they expectations or assumptions? I had seen no reason going into the race that he would be able to handle the conditions today and therefore, I had no expectation of him winning. I will admit that I didn't think he'd finish as bad as he did but to be honest, and I realize that this won't be believed, his finish today surprised me less than a win would have. I went in thinking one of two things would happen:

-he'd vastly improved, would take on the challengers, run them off of their feet and would dominate the race and prove his recent form was not just due to circumstances being in his favor but that he was really that good.

-he still was the same horse that had had previous troubles trying stakes company and going two turns and would be nowhere to be found at the end.

I was betting on the latter scenario. I didn't figure on anything in between. It was inconceivable to me that he could handle the conditions and still get beaten by a better horse.

When I handicap, or at least try to, what I try to always go against is a horse that's favored to do something because it's assumed he can do it when facing other horses that have proven they can.

You seriously want us to believe, looking at the past performances and you did say you saw his last 3 races that you didn't even entertain the thought that Daaher could win this *coughing* Gr.1 race. If Curlin was in the field I might just believe you. Thanks for the conversation tonight I think...

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by CSC

You seriously want us to believe, looking at the past performances and you did say you saw his last 3 races that you didn't even entertain the thought that Daaher could win this *coughing* Gr.1 race. If Curlin was in the field I might just believe you. Thanks for the conversation tonight I think...

That is not AT ALL what I said. I said I figured one of two things would happen. Either he'd romp or be nowhere to be found and I said I was betting on the latter. So of course I entertained the thought that he could win and win easily.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Funny, you didn't make one post regarding this horse, and your assessment of his chances in the Donn, before the race. But, apparently, you had the whole thing figured out.....after the race.

I apologize that I had to go to work and there were no computers for me to put in all of my pre-race thoughts for your approval. I know it's not the same but if you were to look on the thread discussing the Cigar Mile, it's pretty clear where I stood on this horse. I totally attributed that win to the conditions (pace, small field, huge weight break, and the fact that ML was over the top) rather than to his being that good. Again, I know that probably means nothing to you but after that race, I couldn't wait to bet against him in a race like this.

[hurricanefrank]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Funny, you didn't make one post regarding this horse, and your assessment of his chances in the Donn, before the race. But, apparently, you had the whole thing figured out.....after the race.

I don't know what King Glorious said about the Donn prior to the running but your point is well taken as it regards handicapping in general. It's very easy do post-mortems, but entirely another to foretell same in a pre-race analysis.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

That is not AT ALL what I said. I said I figured one of two things would happen. Either he'd romp or be nowhere to be found and I said I was betting on the latter. So of course I entertained the thought that he could win and win easily.

I had seen no reason going into the race that he would be able to handle the conditions today and therefore, I had no expectation of him winning.

Again confused, anyway goodnight.

[King Glorious]

I'm not sure what's confusing. Having no reason to believe it would happen and betting that it wouldn't happen doesn't mean that I can't understand that it could happen. So I did entertain the thought that it could happen. Just didn't entertain it too much.