"Spaced" Races And "Fresh" Horses Are Killing The Sport

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Most horseplayers are much more excited about when a horse on their "watch list" is going to run, than when Bernardini is going to run. I'm not going to make any money betting on a 2-5 shot. It's nice to have fans like you but the sport doesn't make money from fans like you since you are not a bettor. The sport needs more bettors, not fans who don't bet.

I think the 2 are correlated. A good number of serious bettors get into the game by first becoming fans.

Also, if there were enough fans, TV deals could funnel more significant money into the industry.

--Dunbar

[Rupert Pupkin]

While I accept (reluctantly) Rupert’s contention that contemporary horses need more time than horses racing just 20 years ago, I don’t think it necessarily follows that the scheduling now in favor is the optimal one. It may no longer be optimal to bring horses back on 2-3 weeks rest, but it may be as good or better to bring them back on 4 weeks rest than to let them sit out for 5-8 weeks. I expect that the spacing will continue to be adjusted in the future, just as it has been adjusted over the last half-century.



--Dunbar[/quote]

In general, to give a horse 8 weeks between each race is definitely too much time. It obviously depends on the circumstances. If you're shipping a horse all over the place, the horse will need more rest between races. But for your typical horse, 4-5 weeks between races is fine. If the horse had a really hard race, you may want to give a little more time. In general, 4-6 weeks is a good amount of time between races.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Most horseplayers are much more excited about when a horse on their "watch list" is going to run, than when Bernardini is going to run. I'm not going to make any money betting on a 2-5 shot. It's nice to have fans like you but the sport doesn't make money from fans like you since you are not a bettor. The sport needs more bettors, not fans who don't bet.

I'm certainly more a fan than a bettor as I only bet around $2-3,000 a year. That may hardly be a blip on the radar of the tracks in terms of handle but when you have thousands of fans like me it certainly adds up. In my case the betting comes from being a fan of the game. If the game gets to the point where it no longer interests me then my betting will dwindle. This is part of the reason why it is important to cater to the fans as well as the bettors.

The other aspect is that the true bettors are looking to make money off their betting. Considering the large takeouts, the best way to beat the system is for there to be casual fans that go to the track and bet the horses that have no shot. Otherwise every horse is going to have realistic odds minus the takeout and isn't worth a bet. The more fans that are drawn to the track a couple times a year and are willing to blow $100 without really caring (like you see all the time in casinos) the better for the bettors.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I'm certainly more a fan than a bettor as I only bet around $2-3,000 a year. That may hardly be a blip on the radar of the tracks in terms of handle but when you have thousands of fans like me it certainly adds up. In my case the betting comes from being a fan of the game. If the game gets to the point where it no longer interests me then my betting will dwindle. This is part of the reason why it is important to cater to the fans as well as the bettors.

The other aspect is that the true bettors are looking to make money off their betting. Considering the large takeouts, the best way to beat the system is for there to be casual fans that go to the track and bet the horses that have no shot. Otherwise every horse is going to have realistic odds minus the takeout and isn't worth a bet. The more fans that are drawn to the track a couple times a year and are willing to blow $100 without really caring (like you see all the time in casinos) the better for the bettors.

Yes, that's true. You guys make some good points. I was sort of thinking of fans like Bold Brooklynite that are long-term fans that don't bet. He is probably the exception to the rule. There are probably a lot of fans like yourself out there who do bet and who are more likely to go to the track if a superstar is running. Such fans may not be big bettors but every bit counts.

[Pedigree Ann]

This is my first post in this thread because I've been fighting a bug.

First thing I'd like to point out is that horses like Cigar (10 races at 4, 7 at 5) was racing only 10 years ago, not 20. It was not that long ago that we could count on seeing our champions run most of the year, coast to coast. Holy Bull (11 races at 3, last race in Sept). Silver Charm (7 at 3, 9 at 4, just 8 years ago). The trend has been downward for a couple of decades, but the "fresh horse" argument is quite a recent development. Winning a major stakes race without a prep race within 2-3 weeks was considered a training feat of no small merit, because your competition would be racing fit from such preps.

Secondly, the top horses of yore would run their more races in a much more concetrated period of time. After Saratoga, fall Belmont, and fall Aqueduct, the NY horses would get anywhere from 2 to 4 months off - 2, if they were running at Hialeah, 4 if they were coming back when Aqueuct (previously Jamaica) opened in March. Then they would run every couple of weeks (or more closely) until they got another break. Today, a horse may run as many races as a 3yo before the Derby as Secretariat did (3), but he did it in 6 weeks, not 3-4 months. There was no first-class racing in Southern California after Hollywood Park ended (Del Mar was a lesser meet then and the best stables went east for Saratoga and the big fall races) and Santa Anita started in December. The Australians still run this way, with their champions running every week or two thru Sept and October, then often taking a couple of months off (a 'spell') before returning after New Year's. IMHO, spacing races 6-8 weeks apart and doing it all year is harder on a horse than a campaign of races 2-3 weeks apart, with a rest period until the next campaign, so I am not surprised that such horses break down more.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Prepping a horse for a 2 year old sale and racing it as a 2 year old not only has a different goal, but a different approach. I don't think you can use the one to discredit the other.

That is not true. The preparation for a 2 year old sale is almost identical to the way they would prepare a horse for a race. They train the horses exactly the same way that they would prepare him if they were going to run him and try to win first-time out.

For the consignor, the preview( the under-tack workout for prospective buyers) is like a regular race. The consignor prepares the horse so that they will peak on the preview day. The faster the works at the preview, the more money the horse will go for. In addition, the consignor has all the same concerns as a trainer preparing a horse to run. Both the trainer and the consignor have to walk the fine line of working the horse hard to enough to get it ready for a peak performance, but not working the horse so hard that the horse will get injured. If a consignor gets a horse to work a quarter of mile in :21 1/5 at the preivew, that won't do the consignor any good if the horse doesn't come out of the work in one piece. Even if the horse works great, nobody will pay top dollar if the horse comes out of the work with an injury. A trainer preparing a 2 year old to race has the same concerns. It does him no good for the horse to win has debut by 5 lengths if the horse is going to come out of the race hurt and need 6 months off.

but i've seen comments from many regarding buying two year olds at those sales...that they essentially have to re-train the horse. that all they've been taught is go go go so as to get that fast furlong work. then you have to break them of that, teach them to take their cues from the rider...

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Actually, they do train them for two year old sales just as they would for a race. What you have to understand (you probably do know) is that they breeze/(warm them up) them before they make them gun down the stretch in a two year old in training sale, just as in a race. They gallop around for a bit, and then come blazing down the stretch, just as you would do in a race. You rate, and then you run as fast as you can down. It's not like they just go out there and run for 1/8 of a mile and then they're done in a two year old training sale. Sure more speed is utilized in the two year old in training sales because the faster the horses go, the more that they sell for. The reason the horses are able to run so fast is that it is not the same as being in a five and a half or six furlong race...they don't have to utilize their speed that far. Is it hard on the young horses..absolutely..

[Cannon Shell]

If you trained your 2 year old racehorses like a 2 year old sales horse, you would not have very many left to be three year old racehorses.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Danzig2

but i've seen comments from many regarding buying two year olds at those sales...that they essentially have to re-train the horse. that all they've been taught is go go go so as to get that fast furlong work. then you have to break them of that, teach them to take their cues from the rider...

That doesn't happen very often. We've bought alot of horses out of 2 year old sales and I can only think of one who always wanted to "go go go", and it took a long time to get him over that. But even with this horse, I can't say that his bevavior was necessarily a result of what he was taught training for the sale. We sent the horse to the farm for 3 months after the sale. Then we started him in very light training and he bucked his shins. To make a long story short, he didn't really do any serious training until he was a 3 year old so it was a full year after the 2 year old sale. The problem was when we would work him. He was fine galloping but when we would work him he wanted to go full-speed. He only knew two speeds, slow gallops or full-speed. He didn't know how to something in between. You could argue that this was a result of what he learned aat the 2 year old sale but I'm not so sure. It was a year later and he was the only horse that would do this. So it may not have had anything to do with what he learned at the 2 year old sale.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

If you trained your 2 year old racehorses like a 2 year old sales horse, you would not have very many left to be three year old racehorses.

That's not true. Most of the good consignors do not push their horses in the workouts before the preview. Most of the horse only have 1-2 workouts before the preview. If we are talking about a horse who works :10 1/5 at the preview, he probably only worked in :11 breezing before that. The consignors want the horses to peak at the preview. If they give them a really hard work before the preview, the horse might get hurt. The good consignors are not going to take that chance. They basically prepare the horse the same way they would prepare him for a race. If they were going to prepare the horse for a 5 furlong race, if they gave the horse any 5 furlong workouts, the workouts would probaly be in 1:01 even though the horse would run the race much faster than that. The horse may run the race in :58 2/5 but the trainer isn't going to work him that fast in preparation.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

That's not true. Most of the good consignors do not push their horses in the workouts before the preview. Most of the horse only have 1-2 workouts before the preview. If we are talking about a horse who works :10 1/5 at the preview, he probably only worked in :11 breezing before that. The consignors want the horses to peak at the preview. If they give them a really hard work before the preview, the horse might get hurt. The good consignors are not going to take that chance. They basically prepare the horse the same way they would prepare him for a race. If they were going to prepare the horse for a 5 furlong race, if they gave the horse any 5 furlong workouts, the workouts would probaly be in 1:01 even though the horse would run the race much faster than that. The horse may run the race in :58 2/5 but the trainer isn't going to work him that fast in preparation.

Rupe baby you are way off on this one. Remember that once entered in a sale they have a d-day that things have to be right on. They dont stop on them or back off if they have issues, they plow through and make them work. Just the amount of vet work alone done on these babies in jan/Feb/March is enough to give pause before buying one of these used cars. There is a big difference in how you get a baby ready to sell or to race.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Rupe baby you are way off on this one. Remember that once entered in a sale they have a d-day that things have to be right on. They dont stop on them or back off if they have issues, they plow through and make them work. Just the amount of vet work alone done on these babies in jan/Feb/March is enough to give pause before buying one of these used cars. There is a big difference in how you get a baby ready to sell or to race.

I'm not way off here. Not only do I buy horses at these sales but we sell them too. If a horse has an injury, we will back of and withdraw him from the sale.

They will often times back off if the horse has issues. If the horse has sore shins they will go on with him. But if the horse has a serious problem, they will back off. Nobody is going to buy a horse with a serious problem.

[Linny]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Nowadays if you try to run a good horse 15 times a year, you will not be successful.

The definition of successful has changed. When a top handicap horse (when there were real handicaps) ran 12-15 times a season and lost 5 or 6 times, he still had a decent shot at a title. Now you can win all year, lose the Breeders' Cup by a neck and your a "phony."

In 1942 Whirlaway ran 22 times between April 9th and Dec 12. He won 11 (one was a walkover) and never finished off the board. He won races like the Clark H, the Brooklyn, and the JCGC and the Dixie H. He placed in the Suburban and the Arlington H among others. He raced from 6f to 2 miles. A season like that today would never happen because top horses are held out for all but 4 or 5 top engagements, all geared to having his A game for the Breeders' Cup.

Trainers can and will do what they want with their stock but my disgreement is with not running a fit healthy horse. They skip races with a fit horse then cry and moan when horsey gets hurt in training and has to miss the big dance.

[Linny]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

That is not true. The preparation for a 2 year old sale is almost identical to the way they would prepare a horse for a race. They train the horses exactly the same way that they would prepare him if they were going to run him and try to win first-time out.

For the consignor, the preview( the under-tack workout for prospective buyers) is like a regular race. The consignor prepares the horse so that they will peak on the preview day. The faster the works at the preview, the more money the horse will go for. In addition, the consignor has all the same concerns as a trainer preparing a horse to run. Both the trainer and the consignor have to walk the fine line of working the horse hard to enough to get it ready for a peak performance, but not working the horse so hard that the horse will get injured. If a consignor gets a horse to work a quarter of mile in :21 1/5 at the preivew, that won't do the consignor any good if the horse doesn't come out of the work in one piece. Even if the horse works great, nobody will pay top dollar if the horse comes out of the work with an injury. A trainer preparing a 2 year old to race has the same concerns. It does him no good for the horse to win has debut by 5 lengths if the horse is going to come out of the race hurt and need 6 months off.

As long as any injury (bucked shins etc) shows up after the sale the seller is only concerned with 1 fast workout. Many top trainers have told me that sale 2yo's are often poor propsects because they are so rushed and need several months off after the sales. The trainer preparing a baby to race is not only looking to the debut but to races beyond. They want to win, but they also want to teach the horse, to help him develop. They want to have a horse left the next day and the next week. The seller at the 2yo sale wants the fast work and wants to sell him before any issues occur. They don't have that "allowance in the next condition book" or "the stake at the end of the meet" in mind.
I receive several catalogs a year from vaious partnerships. They cost thousands to produce. I get gorgeous photos, pedigree analysis and comments from top trainers. I also get notes from the general manager saying "Filly X is currently at Aiken, recovering from bucked shins..." proudly offered a $XXX/share."

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I'm not way off here. Not only do I buy horses at these sales but we sell them too. If a horse has an injury, we will back of and withdraw him from the sale.

They will often times back off if the horse has issues. If the horse has sore shins they will go on with him. But if the horse has a serious problem, they will back off. Nobody is going to buy a horse with a serious problem.

YOU may do these things but the vast majority of sales trainers dont.

Define serious problem.

If you are selling then let me ask you a question. Have you ever seen vet work done on a 2 year old at the sale that would not been done if that horse was not in a sale?

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Linny

The definition of successful has changed. When a top handicap horse (when there were real handicaps) ran 12-15 times a season and lost 5 or 6 times, he still had a decent shot at a title. Now you can win all year, lose the Breeders' Cup by a neck and your a "phony."

In 1942 Whirlaway ran 22 times between April 9th and Dec 12. He won 11 (one was a walkover) and never finished off the board. He won races like the Clark H, the Brooklyn, and the JCGC and the Dixie H. He placed in the Suburban and the Arlington H among others. He raced from 6f to 2 miles. A season like that today would never happen because top horses are held out for all but 4 or 5 top engagements, all geared to having his A game for the Breeders' Cup.

Trainers can and will do what they want with their stock but my disgreement is with not running a fit healthy horse. They skip races with a fit horse then cry and moan when horsey gets hurt in training and has to miss the big dance.

As I've said before, I don't know anything about what happened in 1942. I know a lot about racing from about 1982 to the present. I can tell you that one of the first things I noticed as a handicapper was that horses that ran every 2-3 weeks usually did not stay in form for very long. These horses would usually run a few good races and that would be the end of them. The good trainers know this and that is why they don't run their hores every 2-3 weeks. I'm not saying that horses can't run every 4 weeks. I think every 4 weeks is fine. If you have a relatively sound horse and run him all year every 4 weeks or so, you could probably get 10-11 races out of him. Races are not going to always come up when you want them to, so you probably couldn't run the horse 12 times. Not only that, if you're going to run the horse for a year straight, it's probably a good idea to send him out to the farm for a month at the end of the year. Then would end up costing you a few months because a horse loses his conditioning when he's out orf training for a month.

If I had a horse that I thought could win the Breeder's Cup, I wouldn't try to run him too many times that year. I'd probably give him a break and start up with him in March. I think it is a little too conservative to only run him 3 times before the Breeder's Cup. There's a lot of money out there and I'd feel pretty stupid if we skipped a ton of god races that we could have won and then ended up losing in the BC. So I would probably plan a campaign where the BC ends up being the horse's 6th race of the year or something like that. Competing at the highest level like that, I would probabl give the horse a little more time between racs than an average horse. I'd tried to run him every 4-6 weeks.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

YOU may do these things but the vast majority of sales trainers dont.

Define serious problem.

If you are selling then let me ask you a question. Have you ever seen vet work done on a 2 year old at the sale that would not been done if that horse was not in a sale?

As I said before, the main physical issue that they will push a horse with is sore shins. That would be the one physical issue that they treat differently with a sales horse. If you have a 2 year old that you are keeping and he has sore shins, you stop on him. But consignors will usually not stop on a horse because of sore shins. They might stop on them. It obviously depends how sore the shins are.

With all of these things, it obviously depends on the consignor and it depends on how valuable the horse is. The good consignors that have a lot of credibility are not desperate. They think nothing of putting a $300,000 reserve on a horse that they only paid $150,00 for if they really like the horse. With a good consignor, the sale is not their last chance to sell the horse. If they have a good reputation and have a lot of credibilty, they will be able to find a buyer for the horse even if they have to wait for a few months.

[LARHAGE]

Originally Posted by Danzig188

there are many reasons why horses don't run as much as in the 'good old days'.

breeding practices for one--commercial breeders imo are hurting the breed, going after speed regardless of the horse who carries that speed. way back when, breeders were in the sport due to love of the horse, and love of sport. they bred looking for the best representatives of the breed, now it's who will fetch the biggest price at auction. it's the equivalent of puppy mills anymore. many aren't in it to improve the breed, but only to improve their bottom line. it's why i have respect for dinny phipps, and the few others like him. they are in it for love of the horse, and for the horse.

also, regarding tracks..i've always seen that the tracks today are deeper, slower, and safer than in the past. it explains why horses may have gotten faster, yet records don't fall.

as for running more often.... no one wants to take a chance anymore on a loss, so the horses are brought along easily until in peak condition when they're at their very best, ready to fire big. of course there are so many tracks with top races, it's a lot easier to find a good, lucrative, and no doubt easier spot to go after big bucks and a graded race. a lot more tracks than in the past, easy to avoid other top comp--don't like the weight assigned? threated to pull out, or pull out...next track down the road will hook you right up.
also, everyone wants a bull lea now--not the citation. don't run often, you may not be at your best and might lose and cost some stud fees.....

it's a breeding game right now. not a racing game.

it's funny, back then, horses got a lot of respect when they carried a mound of weight and still fought hard. might get nipped at the wire by some pretender, but everyone knew they had seen a true champ--horses like citation for example.

look at dr fager. set a mile record that stood for years while carrying weight no horse sees these days. najran tied it. you think anyone gives a rats butt about najran? nope. the good dr is the one who will be revered for years to come, he was the real racehorse.

so, you want to place blame? put it squarely on the breeders shoulders. that's where it belongs. owners pretty much want to buy the best looking one out there. the breeders are the ones who are supposed to be the knowledgable people, selecting the best to breed. they call all the shots, from beginning to end.

it's a breeders sport. they need to change the title from thoroughbred racehorse to breedhorse. that's all anyone seems interested in anymore. big fees, big syndication deals.

I agree, and this is why I hope The Green Monkey runs as fast as a green monkey, this ridiculous price for this horse is just another nail in the coffin of the sport that used to be horse racing.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Linny

As long as any injury (bucked shins etc) shows up after the sale the seller is only concerned with 1 fast workout. Many top trainers have told me that sale 2yo's are often poor propsects because they are so rushed and need several months off after the sales. The trainer preparing a baby to race is not only looking to the debut but to races beyond. They want to win, but they also want to teach the horse, to help him develop. They want to have a horse left the next day and the next week. The seller at the 2yo sale wants the fast work and wants to sell him before any issues occur. They don't have that "allowance in the next condition book" or "the stake at the end of the meet" in mind.
I receive several catalogs a year from vaious partnerships. They cost thousands to produce. I get gorgeous photos, pedigree analysis and comments from top trainers. I also get notes from the general manager saying "Filly X is currently at Aiken, recovering from bucked shins..." proudly offered a $XXX/share."

You are forgetting about what the original debate was about. Phalaris was saying that the best way to keep horses sound and to make them last is by running them 10-12 times as a 2 year old including racing them in February and March of their 2 year old year. That would be much harder on them than what they go through at a 2 year old sale. Don't get me wrong, I think they are very hard on these horses at the 2 year old sales. I think the horses are forced to do far more than they are ready for. Whenever we buy a horse out of a 2 year old sale, we send them straight to the farm. They need a good rest after the sale. But when we buy a horse that we deem to be relatively sound at a 2 year olds sale, I think he will have a good chance of lasting and having a good, long career. If you told me you were going to buy a yearling and try to run him 10-12 times as a 2 year old including races in February and March, I would tell you that your horse has practically no chance of lasting and no chance to be a good older horse.

A fairly sound horse who comes out of a 2 year old sale who is given a nice rest after the sale, has a far greater chance of having a good career than a horse who runs 10-12 races as a 2 year old. It's not even close.