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#1
06-09-2006, 10:02 PM
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Belmont Stakes Day Analysis (r1-13)
The 138th running of the Belmont Stakes may lack some star power this year, but a solid undercard featuring five more graded stakesand a spirited wagering menu should make for an enjoyable afternoon at America's Ascot...
R1: EX, TRI, DD R2: EX, QUI, TRI, P3 (2-3-4), P4 (2-3-4-5) R3: EX, TRI, P3 (3-4-5) R4: EX, QUI, TRI, P3 (4-5-6) R5: EX, TRI, P3 (5-6-7) R6: EX, TRI, P3 (6-7-8), P6 (6-11) R7: EX, TRI, P3 (7-8-9), Grand Slam (7-8-9-10) R8: EX, TRI, P4 (8-9-10-11) R9: EX, TRI, Super, P3 (9-10-11), DD R10: EX, TRI, Super, P4 (10-13), DD R11: EX, TRI, Super, P3 (11-12-13), DD R12: EX, TRI, DD R13: EX, TRI, Super Note that the track should be fast the majority of the day and the turf likely good at best, yielding at worst.. SELECTIONS--Belmont Park, 6/10/06 R1: Clm, 8.5f, 4+ 1. #1 Neon Magic 5-2: Lake bay 4/2-1-1 BEL; just missed last 2. #7 Dual Jewels 6-1: Contessa on roll; Velasquez took photo with this one A. #5 Light Night 8-1 B. #8 Sir Tyler T 7-2 R2: MSW, 6.5f, 3+ 1. #1 Spring at Last 5-1: Well meant Pletcvher firster 2. #6 Fly Now 7-2: Zito's Toga trainees running well A. #7 Calculated Risk 3-1: Phipps homebred working well for return B. #2 Sandy's Blitz 30-1: Serpe Forestry faced toughies; gets Leparoux R3: OC/N2x, 7f, 3+ 1. #6 Freedom Isn't Free 7-2: Just missed this level in '06 debut 2. #3 Satsoof 5-2: Godolphin bay solid in NA debut A. #7 Lieutenant Danz 12-1: Toss previous and Contessa adds Bejarano B. #5 Aristocrat 4-1: Frankel-Stronach bay overcame KEE bias last R4: Alw/N1x, 7f, NYB-3+ 1. #9 He's a Lumberjack 9-5: Faced open stakes company credibly 2. #8 Precise Action 2-1: Violette hot and red always fires A. #3 Long Lost Pal 8-1 B. #1a Unconcerned 10-1 R5: OC/N1x, 6f, 3+ 1. #2 Cool Springs Saint 4-1: Away since Nov., but tough if ready 2. #9 Lively Yourself Up 12-1: Gelding regularly earns smaller checks A. #1 Saratoga Jet 8-1: Dutrow state-bred on 4 race tear; tries open B. #3 Afrashad 5-2: Smoke Glacken red gone 23 months; gets Lasix R6: 28th True North H. (Gr. II), $200k, 6f, 3+ 1. #5 Spanish Chestnut 4-1: Square number on solid comeback player 2. #1e Tiger/Voodoo: 6-5: Jerkens doublely eligible with these 3. #4 Celtic Innis 12-1 Scored with this Ritvo gelding Preakness Day R7: 13th Just a Game (Gr. II), $300k, 1m-T, F&M-3+ 1. #2 Gorella 6-5: Imposing chestnut faces males gamely; should cruise 2. #5 Mirabilis 5-1: Derby Day Gr. III winner gets GoGo; stalks 3. #4 Bright Abundance 15-1: Adding exotic value with Clement Gr. III winner R8: 1st Woody Stephens (or 22nd Riva Ridge) Gr. II, $250k, 7f, 3 yo's 1. #9 Songster 3-1: Right back after monster Hirsch Jacobs 2. #2 Likely 6-1: Biancone listed winner gets plus pace scenario A. #4 Fabulous Strike 12-1: Sharp gelding from savvy Philly helmsman B. ##6 Doc Cheney 12-1: Red was cut out to be nice; Chased Bernardini R9: 76th Acorn, Gr. I, $250,000, Fillies-3 yo, 1m 1. #8 Hello Liberty 6-1: Clever Jones prepped with Gr. II Nassau win 2. #9 Ermine 4-1: Wiseguy KY Oaks runner-up found world of trouble A. #2 Adieu 2-1: No shame finishing between Joint Effort/Smart n Pretty last B. #7 Teammate 6-1: Jerkens' Bonnie Miss winner missed earlier target race R10: 105th Manhattan, Gr. I, $400,000, 3+, 10f-IT 1. #4 Cacique 3-1: .5 length behind 'Channel' in Turf Classic 2. #8 English Channel 5-2: Tough to seperate these 2 classy grassys A. #3 Sabre d'Argent 20-1: Over head, but Albertrani must think he's ready B. #2 Relaxed Gesture 5-1: Desert flop aside, a consistent performer R11: 138th Belmont Stakes, Gr. I, $1,000,000, 12f, 3 yo 1. #7 DEPUTY GLITTERS 15-1: Unique opportunity for heartbroken rider of Barbero Prado and under-lauded Bernardini trainer Albertrani to combine on pair of Classic Double wins. Had better-than-it looked try in Derby and adds winner of 2 "test of the Champion". Owns speed AND tactical option while being one of the few proven commodities available at a price. 2. #11 STEPPENWOLFER 9-2: Show of morning speed an eye-opener last week, and Dan Pietz' Aptitude grey certain to be striding when most others are begging for the line. Has been expertly handled all spring. Horse most likely to hit board. 3. #2 SUNRIVER 4-1: Given circumstances of M/M Jones' homebred being denied Derby saddlecloth, have to believe Pletcher has this Peter Pan winner ready to explode in this spot. Simple as that.. 4. #8 JAZIL 10-1: McLaughlin thrilled with progress of pocket rocket that quashed the naysayers in Derby DH 4th, and no reason to think Seeking the Gold bay doesn't at least finish as well at 12f as he did 10. As sweet a colt as you'll ever meet, and another that can jazz the gimmicks. R12: MSW, 9f-IT, 3+ 1. #3 Mantle 7-2: $400k Grand Slam from Pletcher just missed last 2. #6 Ace on the River 12-1: Toner's TGulch bay looks like he's catching on A. #5 Carson's Band 5-1: Possible lone speed under good Mig B. #7 Tiz Stormin 15-1: Hough tough 2nd career effort (23% W, 59 % ITM) R13: MSW, 6f, NYB-3+ 1. #6 First Expression 8-1: Take shot that Leparoux makes the difference 2. #9 Crafty Drive 3-1: Tries 2nd career for NYRA exec Duncker, Hauswald A. #3 Peconic Bay 6-1: B. #2 Midtown South 7-2: Best of luck to all.. Enjoy Belmont Day! Steve Byk 
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#3
06-11-2006, 05:01 PM
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#4
06-12-2006, 05:01 PM
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#5
06-10-2006, 12:35 AM
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A generous compliment and the sentiment is greatly appreciated.. Am equally glad you've 'signed' on to DT.. Good luck tomorrow.. SB
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#6
06-10-2006, 02:47 PM
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Dix- I think Cacique hangs. Hoss is plutonium for me when it comes to win bets. One of us will be under the bed after the race.
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#7
06-10-2006, 06:01 PM
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A lot of cat hair under here. I really should try to vacume.
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#8
06-10-2006, 07:49 PM
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Get To Know Dixie
As usual ... Dixie takes it to the bank.
Hey folks ... those of you who are unfamiliar with the fabulous Mr. Dixie ... here's my word of advice --- Get familiar ... fast! Quote:
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#9
06-10-2006, 08:23 PM
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#10
06-10-2006, 08:25 PM
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I liked Jazil, but have never made a bet in my life!!!!! Maybe I can learn though.
Do you pronounce his name Jaz*i*l or Jaz*ee*l, though? I'm confused!
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#11
06-11-2006, 09:11 AM
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#12
06-10-2006, 03:56 AM
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Steve, Wish you good luck tomorrow. I seem to agree with most accept, I really Like Steppen alot tomorrow. Taking a big shot on him. I wouldn't listen to anyone else except you or Andy S. Keep up the great work. Oh and we had another fun night last night Down Under "IAA" .
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#13
06-10-2006, 10:09 AM
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way to go stevo..very nice .....sacred light gets in the top 3 in mine and the 11/1 in race 12...pulpiteer is ready to back up his breedeing..i hope..
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#14
06-10-2006, 10:24 AM
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Thanks Steve and we're pretty much looking at the same horses.
Good Luck All Hooves give me a call your cell is blocking My pic 4 starting out of the 8th and it's cheap is 9/2389/248/27
__________________
“To compel a man to furnish funds for the propagation of ideas he disbelieves and abhors is sinful and tyrannical.” Thomas Jefferson
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#16
06-10-2006, 06:06 PM
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Good luck Dell, geter done
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#17
06-13-2006, 09:03 AM
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DELAWARE PARK: Tuesday 6/13 (R5-9)
The Belmont card was a mixed bag at best Saturday, as two horses in particular destroyed any chance we all had at making money...
Our Pick Four play featured Gorella (Just a Game). Songster (Stephens), Hello Liberty (Acorn) and Jazil (Belmont), and Bushfire's gutty performance against Liberty dashed the $900+ return. In the Belmont itself, my obstinance regarding Bluegrass Cat AGAIN cost the trifecta. Running 1-3-4 with my Derby and Belmont tri boxes was a tad frustrating. Hope you did well... More on the Belmont later today on Derby Trail and on "At the Races and Beyond" this evening when Steve Haskin offers his Triple Crown retrospective and Andy Serling delivers his insights on the big weekend at Big Sandy... SELECTIONS -- Delaware Park (6/13/06) Races 5-9 (P4, P3's) A really good set of races at Delaware Park today including the 7th which may as well be a Gr. III sprint with 4 of 7 being black type earners.. 5th: MSW, 1m, F&M-3+ 1. #3 Strong Vows 2-1: Sharp Jones barn goes Pino to Dominguez 3RD 2. #4 Golden Opportunity 3-1: Klesaris firster working well WON 3. #5 Coupled 4-1: Point Given gal tows bullets to debut 2ND Ex: $13.30 Tri: $31.80 6th: Alw/N1x, 3+, 9f-T 1. #4 Fin Addict 8-1: Gelding close regularly; 3rd off break 5TH? 2. #6 Enroute 7-2: Ramon nice addition to 3/1-1-1 grey WON A. #5 Agent Danseur 10-1: 2 for 23 but ITM 10 more times 2ND B. #7 I'm a Fax 10-1: Constant visitor to exotics bottom 6th? Ex: $13.20 7th: OC/N$Y, 3+, 6f 1. #1 The Student 6-1: Slick Lake sprinter doesn't need lead WON 2. #5 Forest Park 4-1: Another that could press, stalk 3RD A. #6 Crafty Schemer 2-1: Didn't respond to Ramon in last 2ND B. #3 Saay Mi Name 8-1: Check-casher owns plenty of back class Ex: $6.50 Tri: $13.00 8th: OC/N4x, F&M-3+, 9f-T 1. #2 Go Robin 4-1: One of 2 from Hennig; Day's top play WON 2. #7 Missmaybe 20-1: Draw line through slop flop ? A. #8 Frost Princess 6-1: Takes logical next step 4TH? B. #4 Patriots Image 12-1: High % Alfano's mare an exotics must 3RD (Include favorite #5 Bend a Little in multi-race wagers) 9th: Clm, 3 yo, 8.5f 1. #3 Harbor Worker 10-1: Stevedore gets pace set up 5TH 2. #2 Stormy Fellow 6-1: Allen took grey gelding; raises tag 3RD A. #5 Padua's Gift 7-2: Claim box star 2-2 DEL, tough at trip WON B. #4 Behind Enemy Lines 6-1: 3rd off break; ITM 13-18 distance 2ND Ex: $14.80 Tri: $88.40 $1 Pick Four: 5: 3 6: 4-6 7: 1-3-5-6 8: 2-5-7 1x2x4x3 = $24 Late $2 Pick Three: PAID $63 7: 1-5-6 8: 2 9: 2-3-4-5 3x1x4 x $2 = $24 Day's wagers: $204 Day's return: $244 A good day though the prices didn't really get in where we wanted them to... Hitting the P4 would have made the difference with a $160+ return... Needed to have gone three deep in the first leg to get it which would have pushed the wagers to $276 and the return to $410.. Good luck.. Steve Last edited by Kasept : 06-13-2006 at 08:01 PM.
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#18
06-13-2006, 05:47 PM
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nice pick in the 8th with Go Robin
sp
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#19
06-13-2006, 08:09 PM
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I hit that Pick-4! I did go 3- deep in the first leg and only used The Student and Crafty Schemer in the 7th. --I really like The Student today(man, her just got up!!).
Nice picks Steve!
__________________
Alcohol, the cause and solution to all of life's problems. -Homer Simpson
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#20
06-13-2006, 09:58 PM
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Zip, Good job.. I thought the firsters would be "there", but was surprised they were "so there"... Had I suggested a different single, it would have been Go Robin who i absolutely LOVED today... But I wanted to cover with the prices there. Today could have been monsterous, but the faves came to run...
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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