What are they waiting for? Nominate her to the Matriarch

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I think my question is clear. I will word it differently. If you were told right before the race that the half will go in :47. First Dude will have the lead by a length. He will be followed by Quality Road, Espoir City, and Haynesfield who will be laying 2nd, 3rd, and 4th. If you were told that right before the race, I highly doubt that you would have said that those fractions are way too fast and all of the front-runners will collapse badly.

Yet in your post race analysis, you basically say that the pace was way too fast and it favored the come-from-behinders. That is a circular argument. You are basically saying that "they must have gone way too fast since the come-from-behinders won. It must have been a good thing to be 20 lengths back." Unless you would have said that before the race, then I think it's a circular argument. That is why I asked you to honestly answer whether you would have predicted the front-runners would have collapsed if you knew exactly what the fractions were going to be (:47) right before the race.

Did you read what he wrote? He bet closers, which obviously means he anticipated a strong pace that would favor late runners.

Is the crusade you're embarking on to get BTW or any other "hater" to admit that Zenyatta ran a better race than we might believe?

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Did you read what he wrote? He bet closers, which obviously means he anticipated a strong pace that would favor late runners.

Is the crusade you're embarking on to get BTW or any other "hater" to admit that Zenyatta ran a better race than we might believe?

You have some people acting like the :47 half was some kind of suicide pace and that suicide pace is one of the main reasons that Zenyatta almost won. Yet right before the race, if I would have told these people that the half will go in :47, I doubt any of thse people would have said, "Wow, they're going to run the half in :47! That is death for the front-runners. That will greatly favor Zenyatta. If she's 20 lengths back, she will be in the garden spot."

But after the race, these people claim that :47 was a suicide pace and Zenyata was in the "garden spot" being 20 lengths back. It's ridiculous.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

You have some people acting like the :47 half was some kind of suicide pace and that suicide pace is one of the main reasons that Zenyatta almost won. Yet right before the race, if I would have told these people that the half will go in :47, I doubt any of thse people would have said, "Wow, they're going to run the half in :47! That is death for the front-runners. That will greatly favor Zenyatta. If she's 20 lengths back, she will be in the garden spot."

But after the race, these people claim that :47 was a suicide pace and Zenyata was in the "garden spot" being 20 lengths back. It's ridiculous.

Oy vey. I don't think anyone is acting like it was a suicide pace, but the race collapsed right?

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

You have some people acting like the :47 half was some kind of suicide pace and that suicide pace is one of the main reasons that Zenyatta almost won. Yet right before the race, if I would have told these people that the half will go in :47, I doubt any of thse people would have said, "Wow, they're going to run the half in :47! That is death for the front-runners. That will greatly favor Zenyatta. If she's 20 lengths back, she will be in the garden spot."

But after the race, these people claim that :47 was a suicide pace and Zenyata was in the "garden spot" being 20 lengths back. It's ridiculous.

You're illustrating a great reason why simply analyzing pace numerically is a futile exercise that will lead to losing wagers. A lot of them.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

You're illustrating a great reason why simply analyzing pace numerically is a futile exercise that will lead to losing wagers. A lot of them.

I strongly disagree. Once you know how fast the track is and how it is playing, I think you will know what a reasonable pace is. I think it a huge mistake and a circular argument to say that "the front-runners must have gone way too fast, since they quit, even though they didn't appear to go that fast and even though the pace was only moderate based on the way the track is playing today."

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I strongly disagree. Once you know how fast the track is and how it is playing, I think you will know what a reasonable pace is. I think it a huge mistake and a circular argument to say that "the front-runners must have gone way too fast, since they quit, even though they didn't appear to go that fast and even though the pace was only moderate based on the way the track is playing today."

Make no mistake, :47 is a solid half for a 10f race at CD, even for the BC Classic.

The mistake that you're making is assuming that a simple analysis of the numerics is going to lead you to a conclusion on the outcome of the race. Have you looked at the pace figures for the Classic? It was a strong pace. It also completely collapsed. Even if you don't think the half-mile time itself was fast you can't deny that the pace took a mighty toll on the horses contesting it. When you have a pace, specifically in a route race that collapses, the late runners are going to benefit.

[DaTruth]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Make no mistake, :47 is a solid half for a 10f race at CD, even for the BC Classic.

Of the six BC Classics run at CD, it was the third fastest half mile split. There was a tie for the fastest, 46 3/5 by the pacesetters in the Invasor and Concern wins.

[DaTruth]

In Tiznow's Classic at CD, the half was in 47 2/5. The remaining splits were
24 3/5, 24, 24 3/5.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Make no mistake, :47 is a solid half for a 10f race at CD, even for the BC Classic.

Yep, and 1:11 is even stronger than that.

The one-turn races at CD always yield crazy fast pace and fast final times in relation to the routes because of the run-up. There have been several instances over the years of horses running 20 and change first quarters at CD.

For whatever reason - and I'm sure it's possibly mostly "run-up" related - you don't get the same kind of pin-action with the paces in routes there.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Make no mistake, :47 is a solid half for a 10f race at CD, even for the BC Classic.

The mistake that you're making is assuming that a simple analysis of the numerics is going to lead you to a conclusion on the outcome of the race. Have you looked at the pace figures for the Classic? It was a strong pace. It also completely collapsed. Even if you don't think the half-mile time itself was fast you can't deny that the pace took a mighty toll on the horses contesting it. When you have a pace, specifically in a route race that collapses, the late runners are going to benefit.

Don't get me wrong. I think that :47 was a good, solid pace. I just don't think it was a suicide pace that gave Zenyatta a big advantage.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Don't get me wrong. I think that :47 was a good, solid pace. I just don't think it was a suicide pace that gave Zenyatta a big advantage.

The dynamics of the race were in her favor. That much is indisputable. Does it take away from her overall performance? Not really in my opinion but it's still a fact.

[dalakhani]

Rupert-

Certainly not taking sides here but couldn't his reasoning for betting against the speed have been more because of quality and have less to do with pace? And if that were the case, wouldn't the reasonable fractions be of little importance?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

The 4th quarter mile - of the five quarters in that race - was in 26.11 seconds.

Considering the speed of the track and the quality of the four speeds - they all would have performed significantly better through that stage if the pace wasn't very solid and contested.

The speeds who chased First Dude (who refused to settle) - were all out of horse after six furlongs.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Rupert-

Certainly not taking sides here but couldn't his reasoning for betting against the speed have been more because of quality and have less to do with pace? And if that were the case, wouldn't the reasonable fractions be of little importance?

Andy was on Steve's show this week talking about the race. He was asked about the race and he basically said that Zenyatta's performance was a little better than he expected but that it was not that big of a surprise based on the way the race was run and that people should not be that impressed that she came from so far back because it was actually an advantage for her to be over 20 lengths back.

So I was simply asking him if he would have predicted the speed horses would totally quit and Zenyatta would come flying if he knew that First Dude would be leading by a length in :47. I think it was a fair question but he obviously didn't because he refuses to answer it.

[richard]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

You have some people acting like the :47 half was some kind of suicide pace and that suicide pace is one of the main reasons that Zenyatta almost won. Yet right before the race, if I would have told these people that the half will go in :47, I doubt any of thse people would have said, "Wow, they're going to run the half in :47! That is death for the front-runners. That will greatly favor Zenyatta. If she's 20 lengths back, she will be in the garden spot."

But after the race, these people claim that :47 was a suicide pace and Zenyata was in the "garden spot" being 20 lengths back. It's ridiculous.

My take is that 47 on any fast track plays to closers . It is not a guarantee a closer will win but it brings them right into the game . Just my two cents .

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Did you read what he wrote? He bet closers, which obviously means he anticipated a strong pace that would favor late runners.

Is the crusade you're embarking on to get BTW or any other "hater" to admit that Zenyatta ran a better race than we might believe?

Of course that's what he's doing.

He is only making himself look more foolish. Not easy....but he's succeeding.

It's good stuff for sure.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Did you read what he wrote? He bet closers, which obviously means he anticipated a strong pace that would favor late runners.

Is the crusade you're embarking on to get BTW or any other "hater" to admit that Zenyatta ran a better race than we might believe?

How exactly does one bet 'closers' in that race and leave Z out? I thought Fly Down would run a huge race. (I even suspected he'd change leads. ) I also thought that Blame was suspect going 10F and would get run down late by a 10F horse. I certainly didn't think that any of the speed would hold on OR that Looking at Lucky qualified as a 10F 'closer'.
Which doesn't really leave much else for the tri.

I ask the question again: how does one bet 'closers' and not include Z? Would that 'hater' thing come into play here?

I know one thing, BRO. If I'd have shot my mouth off for 6 months and it came down to my horse getting it done by a HEAD, I'd STFU. A HEAD, the (fortuitous) difference between SITTING on a DUNCE CAP or continuing on that Napoleonic path.

I'll be back tomorrow, maybe, for the 'coherent' reply. And I thought it couldn't get any worse than the POTN Derby SPIN.

ha ha ha

[Dahoss]

What a difference a head makes. When certain horses get beat a head they are getting bent over. Zenyatta is beat a head and those that correctly predicted the race are supposed to act like they were wrong? Interesting logic....even for a psycho.