Hall of Fame? Yes or No

[Cannon Shell]

[quote=RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Assuming they finish as expected.

Ichiro YES

Vlad Guerrero YES

Jim Thome NO

John Smoltz NO

Johnny Damon NO

Trevor Hoffman NO

Todd Helton NO

Chipper Jones NO

Bobby Abreu LOLOL

Gary Sheffield NO

Miguel Tejada NO

Andy Pettite YES

I guess this as good a place as any to point out the merits of John Smoltz.
His lifetime record is 213 - 155 but considering he lost a year to injury and was a full time closer the following 4 years afterwards it looks a lot more impressive. Had he just pitched normally during those 5 years he would be at around 285-290 right now. The fact that he was able to mid-career become the best relief pitcher in the NL and record 154 saves in 3 1.2 years then go back to the rotation and become one of the leagues best starters at age 37-40 is unparalleled in baseball history. When you look at the other stats like k's, era, whip, k/9, Innings, saves, h/9, bb/9, k/bb, he is clearly HoF caliber. He twice led the league in wins and win%, led the league in k's, Innings pitched and saves. Think about that, led the league in innings pitched and also led in saves. Smoltz won a Cy Young as a starter and finished third as a closer. He also won a silver slugger award.

But what seals the deal is his post season performance. His record was 15-4 with a 2.67 era and 4 saves in 41 games. He was 7-0 with 3 saves in the NLDS. 6-2 with a 2.83 era in the NLCS and 2-2 with a 2.47 era in the WS.

Of the 4 losses one was 2-1 to the Phils in 93, Smoltz gave up both runs unearned.
The 96 loss in the WS was a 1-0 loss when the run was again unearned.
The loss in the 99 series was a 4-1 loss where he gave up 3 runs, all earned.
The 97 loss was the only one where he didnt pitch well, giving up 5 runs in 6 innings in a 5-2 loss.
So in his 4 postseason losses the Braves scored 5 runs while he gave up 8.

He also got a ND in the famous Jack Morris 10 inning series clincher in 1991, going into the 8th and not allowing a run.

He not only is a lock, he is quite deserving.

[King Glorious]

[quote=Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I guess this as good a place as any to point out the merits of John Smoltz.
His lifetime record is 213 - 155 but considering he lost a year to injury and was a full time closer the following 4 years afterwards it looks a lot more impressive. Had he just pitched normally during those 5 years he would be at around 285-290 right now. The fact that he was able to mid-career become the best relief pitcher in the NL and record 154 saves in 3 1.2 years then go back to the rotation and become one of the leagues best starters at age 37-40 is unparalleled in baseball history. When you look at the other stats like k's, era, whip, k/9, Innings, saves, h/9, bb/9, k/bb, he is clearly HoF caliber. He twice led the league in wins and win%, led the league in k's, Innings pitched and saves. Think about that, led the league in innings pitched and also led in saves. Smoltz won a Cy Young as a starter and finished third as a closer. He also won a silver slugger award.

But what seals the deal is his post season performance. His record was 15-4 with a 2.67 era and 4 saves in 41 games. He was 7-0 with 3 saves in the NLDS. 6-2 with a 2.83 era in the NLCS and 2-2 with a 2.47 era in the WS.

Of the 4 losses one was 2-1 to the Phils in 93, Smoltz gave up both runs unearned.
The 96 loss in the WS was a 1-0 loss when the run was again unearned.
The loss in the 99 series was a 4-1 loss where he gave up 3 runs, all earned.
The 97 loss was the only one where he didnt pitch well, giving up 5 runs in 6 innings in a 5-2 loss.
So in his 4 postseason losses the Braves scored 5 runs while he gave up 8.

He also got a ND in the famous Jack Morris 10 inning series clincher in 1991, going into the 8th and not allowing a run.

He not only is a lock, he is quite deserving.

I really like Smoltz and he was the toughest one for me to leave out. Even though I think he will make it, if I had a vote, he wouldn't get it. He was a really, really good pitcher and he was great in the post-season. But that's just it. He was consistently good and was so for a long time. But except for one season, he was never great. He did win the Cy Young once but that was his only 20-win season. Only three times did he finish in the top five of the Cy Young voting. Tom Glavine won two and finished in the top five six times. Maddux won four and finished in the top five nine times. Smoltz was in the top three of the voting only twice (Glavine six times, Maddux seven times). Those guys were the dominant pitchers and the no-brainers here. Smoltz was a cut below. I think that at the same time a player like Helton's numbers should be examined closer because of where he played, I think Smoltz' should be examined closer because of where he played. Not because it was IN Atlanta but because it was FOR Atlanta. Those teams were always among the best in baseball. If you look at the stretch of his career starting in 1991 when they won their first division title until 2005 when they won their last in their great run, you find something that I think is kind of interesting. Here's his winning % per season against the teams winning %:

Year.........Smoltz..........Braves.......Glavine. .....Maddux
91..............519.............580..........645.. .........na
92..............556.............605..........714.. .........na
93..............577.............642..........786.. .........667
94..............375.............596..........591.. .........727
95..............632.............625..........696.. .........905
96..............750.............593..........600.. .........577
97..............556.............623..........667.. .........826
98..............850.............654..........769.. .........667
99..............579.............636..........560.. .........679
00...............na..............586..........700. ..........679
01...............na..............543..........696. ..........607
02...............na..............630..........621. ..........727
03...............na..............623...........na. ...........593
04...............na..............593...........na. ............na
05..............667.............556...........na.. ...........na

In 2000, Smoltz was hurt and didn't pitch and from 2000-04, he was a reliever. That leaves 10 seasons as a starting pitcher and in those 10 seasons, only four times did he finish with a higher winning % than the team did. Glavine was better than the team in nine of his 12 years and Maddux was better than the team in nine of his 11. It makes me wonder what his record would look like if he was playing for more average teams during that span? Was he more a product of his environment that people want to admit? His post-season success pushes him closer to being in and I wouldn't have any problem with anyone that felt like he deserves it. It's that close. But I wouldn't vote close. I'd only vote those guys that made me say yes as soon as you mentioned their names.

[timmgirvan]

[quote=Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I guess this as good a place as any to point out the merits of John Smoltz.
His lifetime record is 213 - 155 but considering he lost a year to injury and was a full time closer the following 4 years afterwards it looks a lot more impressive. Had he just pitched normally during those 5 years he would be at around 285-290 right now. The fact that he was able to mid-career become the best relief pitcher in the NL and record 154 saves in 3 1.2 years then go back to the rotation and become one of the leagues best starters at age 37-40 is unparalleled in baseball history. When you look at the other stats like k's, era, whip, k/9, Innings, saves, h/9, bb/9, k/bb, he is clearly HoF caliber. He twice led the league in wins and win%, led the league in k's, Innings pitched and saves. Think about that, led the league in innings pitched and also led in saves. Smoltz won a Cy Young as a starter and finished third as a closer. He also won a silver slugger award.

But what seals the deal is his post season performance. His record was 15-4 with a 2.67 era and 4 saves in 41 games. He was 7-0 with 3 saves in the NLDS. 6-2 with a 2.83 era in the NLCS and 2-2 with a 2.47 era in the WS.

Of the 4 losses one was 2-1 to the Phils in 93, Smoltz gave up both runs unearned.
The 96 loss in the WS was a 1-0 loss when the run was again unearned.
The loss in the 99 series was a 4-1 loss where he gave up 3 runs, all earned.
The 97 loss was the only one where he didnt pitch well, giving up 5 runs in 6 innings in a 5-2 loss.
So in his 4 postseason losses the Braves scored 5 runs while he gave up 8.

He also got a ND in the famous Jack Morris 10 inning series clincher in 1991, going into the 8th and not allowing a run.

He not only is a lock, he is quite deserving.

I'm tired today so I just put up this....

[pgiaco]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Assuming they finish as expected.

Ichiro Yes

Vlad Guerrero Yes

Jim Thome NFW

John Smoltz Yes

Johnny Damon No

Trevor Hoffman NO

Todd Helton No

Chipper Jones Only because he tormented the Mets

Bobby Abreu No

Gary Sheffield No

Miguel Tejada No

Andy Pettite A favoriteof mine, but No

My 2 cents

[golfer]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Assuming they finish as expected.

Ichiro YES

Vlad Guerrero MAYBE

Jim Thome YES

John Smoltz YES

Johnny Damon NO

Trevor Hoffman YES

Todd Helton NO

Chipper Jones YES

Bobby Abreu NO

Gary Sheffield NO

Miguel Tejada NO

Andy Pettite NO

My 3 cents

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Assuming they finish as expected.

Ichiro yes

Vlad Guerrero yes

Jim Thome yes

John Smoltz yes

Johnny Damon not even close

Trevor Hoffman yes

Todd Helton yes

Chipper Jones yes

Bobby Abreu no

Gary Sheffield no

Miguel Tejada no

Andy Pettite no

First the yes's:
Ichiro: somewhat marginal because his BA is 28th in baseball history, but his lack of power and OBP (consequently OPS) is so low but I think his impact as the greatest Asian player pushes him in. Also a stunning defender with 8 straight Gold Gloves.

Guerrero: anybody saying no, have you actually seen this guy play? he can hit any pitch anywhere. he's 22nd in the history of baseball in OPS and every player in front of him is in the Hall (or will be). A 188 James Hall of Fame Monitor score (140 is considered a "cinch").

Thome: tough call because of the steroid rumors but 564 home runs and 20th overall in OPS is tough to ignore.

Smoltz: he's been a top 5-10 pitcher for 20 years in both starting and relief roles. enough said

Hoffman: he's the career leader in saves by a longshot. how could that not be enough when saves are so important in this era?

Helton: He ranks 10th in all-time OPS. the players in front of him? Ruth, Williams, Gehrig, Pujols, Bonds, Foxx, Greenberg, Hornsby, Ramirez. Enough said. Say what you want about Colorado but his road stats are pretty amazing too. 162 JHoFM score

Jones: 25th all time in OPS- see above cases, a 162 James Hall of Fame Monitor score. A cinch (even though I hate him)

no's:

Damon: Not even close on any measure.

Abreu: Never had more than 31 homers in a season and his best accomplishment is leading the league in doubles 2002. not even close

Sheffield: Close on some measures, like the 500 home run mark, but was never a good postseason player, and the steriod issue looms large.

Tejada: same as above

Pettite: tough to exclude but I feel like he's missing a few wins given the black cloud. If he gets to 250 I'd reconsider.

[3kings]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Assuming they finish as expected.

Ichiro

Vlad Guerrero

Jim Thome

John Smoltz

Johnny Damon

Trevor Hoffman

Todd Helton

Chipper Jones

Bobby Abreu

Gary Sheffield

Miguel Tejada

Andy Pettite

Ichero-----Guerrero---smoltz-----Pettite

[somerfrost]

[quote=Cannon Shell]Assuming they finish as expected.

Ichiro...absolute lock

Vlad Guerrero...yes

Jim Thome...no

John Smoltz...yes

Johnny Damon...no

Trevor Hoffman...yes

Todd Helton...no

Chipper Jones...maybe

Bobby Abreu...no

Gary Sheffield...no

Miguel Tejada...no

Andy Pettite...possibly


Amazed that Ichiro isn't 100%, leaving him out of the Hall would be the biggest crime since Pete Rose!

[SniperSB23]

Ichiro YES

Vlad Guerrero YES

Jim Thome YES but barely

John Smoltz YES

Johnny Damon NO

Trevor Hoffman NO but he'll probably get in

Todd Helton NO

Chipper Jones YES

Bobby Abreu NO

Gary Sheffield YES

Miguel Tejada NO, steroids will cost him votes

Andy Pettite NO