The Tin Man

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Pops it was extremely arrogant of Prado/Frankel and Johnny V/Pletcher to took the tactics they took. Trust me, both of those jocks do their pre race homework as do the trainers they ride for. Johhny, Edgar, Todd, and Frankel are very astute at asessing a race beforehand and handicapping how it should flow.
Prado treated that horse(The Tin Man) like he was a reformed cheap claimer that he could reel in at any time. 1:15? Are you kidding me? I don't want to knock the Tin Man in any way, shape, or form. Hes a gutsy warrior!!! But I'm not so sure that if Edgar or Johnny don't at least stay lapped onto him that they don't run him down.

There's no chance that Cacique or EC would have beaten The Tin Man even if the pace was faster. The Tin Man does not need to run the half in :50 to win. That made his job easier but I think he could have gone :48 3/5 and still won. He doesn't even need the lead to win. In the San Marcos at Santa Anita, they went the half in :47 1/5. The Tin Man sat 1 1/2 lengths off the lead and won the race race pretty easily. You know who he beat that day? He beat Milk It Mick. Milk It Milk came back in his next race and barely lost to English Channel and Cacique. Milk It Milk had a lot of trouble that day too. He had nowhere to run the final 1/16th of a mile. He may have actually beaten Cacique with a clean trip that day. It would have deinfitely been a photo.

So The Tin Man beat Milk It Mick a lot easier than Cacique did and that was even when The Tin Man rated in 2nd off a :47 1/5 half.

Cacique and EC were not going to beat The Tin Man no matter what today. Letting him run the half in :50, made it much easier on him but hey weren't going to beat him any way. Neither one of them were closing any ground. Don't get me wrong, I wouldn't have expected them to be closing too much ground with those fractions. However, I would have expected them to close a little bit. EC was actually losing ground in the stretch. Cacique was actually losing ground too. If you watch the replay, you will see that Cacique was actually within a length of The Tin Man at the head of the stretch. By the time they got to the 1/16th pole, The Tin Man had pulled away by 3 lengths. You can't use the pace as an excuse when your horses are losing ground in the stretch. That's ridiculous.

[Pedigree Ann]

I want to second the above post. Tin Man doesn't need to loaf on the lead to win, especially not at his favorite distance of 10f. He was my pick in all of the contests yesterday; lone speed, weight-for-age, best distance, better than ever since return - 11/2 was a gift.

Where are all you Ace people? A hint for the future - form at the distance and current form matter. And I love Phoenix Reach but a race of this sort off of such a long layoff was an absurd place to put him. Nice little listed race at York would have made much more sense.

[goingtothewhip]

Respect due to R. Pupkin for calling this one perfectly and then, rather than gloating, taking the very nice score in stride.

Thats what winners do....they act like they've been there before and they'll be there again.

Congrats. and keep 'em coming.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

There's no chance that Cacique or EC would have beaten The Tin Man even if the pace was faster. The Tin Man does not need to run the half in :50 to win. That made his job easier but I think he could have gone :48 3/5 and still won. He doesn't even need the lead to win. In the San Marcos at Santa Anita, they went the half in :47 1/5. The Tin Man sat 1 1/2 lengths off the lead and won the race race pretty easily. You know who he beat that day? He beat Milk It Mick. Milk It Milk came back in his next race and barely lost to English Channel and Cacique. Milk It Milk had a lot of trouble that day too. He had nowhere to run the final 1/16th of a mile. He may have actually beaten Cacique with a clean trip that day. It would have deinfitely been a photo.

So The Tin Man beat Milk It Mick a lot easier than Cacique did and that was even when The Tin Man rated in 2nd off a :47 1/5 half.

Cacique and EC were not going to beat The Tin Man no matter what today. Letting him run the half in :50, made it much easier on him but hey weren't going to beat him any way. Neither one of them were closing any ground. Don't get me wrong, I wouldn't have expected them to be closing too much ground with those fractions. However, I would have expected them to close a little bit. EC was actually losing ground in the stretch. Cacique was actually losing ground too. If you watch the replay, you will see that Cacique was actually within a length of The Tin Man at the head of the stretch. By the time they got to the 1/16th pole, The Tin Man had pulled away by 3 lengths. You can't use the pace as an excuse when your horses are losing ground in the stretch. That's ridiculous.

I think you can use the fact that racing a minimum of 3 wide the whole way around vs right on the rail....how many lengths does that equate to in a race of that distance?

[Gander]

I cant say I was surprised EC got that sort of trip. I think Pletcher was bluffing when he said he was okay with that post. At the very least he needed some others to put pace pressure on Tin Man, and that obviously did not happen. I dont think anyone was beating him anyways, he looked fit for a fight on the track before the race. I got on him.