The case for why Pyro is the most likely Derby winner right now

[horseofcourse]

IT's just so early. Last year, we knew about Street Sense...Curlin had yet to run a race...and Hard Spun we had questions...and after the Southwest later in the month we had way more. Two years ago Barbaro had yet to run on dirt and had Bernardini even run a race yet??

It's way too hard this year especially in California...even if El Gato Malo becomes a monster...his first race on dirt will be the Derby. We will know nothing. I have to think there's more than Pyro and War Pass out there. Something else is going to pop up big time other than those two between now and then.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

I think uncontested leads happen more often than you think. Wasn't Hard Spun even last year uncontested pretty much?? Lion Heart not too long ago?? You mentioned War Emblem. Spend a Buck, Bold Forbes, all come to mind as well. Yeah, it doesn't happen much but it certainly is not out of the question. Best BC Juvy Beyer for Pyro without aid of smoke and mirrors??

There's a long way to go yet before this Derby. I have yet to see War Pass this year, and he could stink for all we know. I saw zero today that told me Pyro could beat War Pass at 8.5 or even 9 furlongs however. Pyro could be the horse this year...but on February 9th and what I saw today...I'll reserve final judgment. AT this point I still prefer War Pass.

I don't have their PPs handy, but I don't think Lion Heart or Hard Spun ever ran as fast early and won routing as War Pass did in his last two starts.

Also, it seems that people are quicker to predict that War Pass will have trouble routing than they normally would be with a son of Cheroke Run. Really, is the bredding THAT terrible?

I'm starting to warm up to this whole War Pass idea.

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by justindew

I don't have their PPs handy, but I don't think Lion Heart or Hard Spun ever ran as fast early and won routing as War Pass did in his last two starts.

Also, it seems that people are quicker to predict that War Pass will have trouble routing than they normally would be with a son of Cheroke Run. Really, is the bredding THAT terrible?

I'm starting to warm up to this whole War Pass idea.

Of course they didn't...I was just stating they got loose on the lead in the KY Derby.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

Of course they didn't...I was just stating they got loose on the lead in the KY Derby.

I wasn't arguing with you.

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by justindew

I wasn't arguing with you.

...sorry. I like to argue on these!!

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

Of course they didn't...I was just stating they got loose on the lead in the KY Derby.

Hard Spun had a 1 length lead after a half....though that was mostly due to Stormello being spun about 5 or 6 wide on the first turn while Kent D. had a full nelson on him.

War Pass will come into the race much more feared than Hard Spun did - and in last years race...Kent very likely doesn't put Stormello to hard rating.

Hard Spun was 7-5-2-0 lifetime when he made the lead after the first call - his only two losses a 2nd in the KY Derby and a 2nd in the BC Classic.

He had a BIG stamina pedigree - and never seemed relaxed at all unless he made the lead.

[Linny]

Hard Spun was 7-5-2-0 lifetime when he made the lead after the first call - his only two losses a 2nd in the KY Derby and a 2nd in the BC Classic.

[/quote]

What? I'd have to check but at Derby time I though HS had one loss, at Oaklawn. If you are talking Classic, by then he'd lost the Derby, Preakness, Belmont and Haskell.

[Bobby Fischer]

1. war pass isn't even a consideration for winning the derby. Come on guys. I put him on my vulture list the second he staggered in the lane that time.
A sprinter breed, who runs like a sprinter... wins some 8.5 furlong races and you think he gets 10 furlongs in a 15 horse+ field? WTF? Is anyone who considers themselves beyond a "fan" actually touting warpass? War Pass will be lucky if he wins his 9 furlong prep(s).


2. Beyers have nothing to do with the kentucky derby. Speed figures in general are going to mislead you in comparison with visually evaluating a horse and a race. The only good a speed figure does is when they give a bad horse a big number , or a good horse a low number.

3. Pyro is one of many who at this time have a chance to compete for the roses. It is very early. His risen star was good in that it allowed him to carry form forward. He showed that he can gallop for 7 or 8 furlongs and then sprint home. He showed that he is in shape and has a kick, and the fairgrounds stretch distance isn't going to make him flatten out. Churchill is nearly as long as fair grounds. It was the type of form that wins the derby lately, which tends to have a horse carry the speed or emerge to the top of the stretch and then another (winner) run by in the lane. Pyro is a little bit small but he is very well proportioned. The final time for the risen star was OBVIOUSLY sub maximal for pyro.- Pyro could have obviously ran a faster final time had the jockey asked him sooner, but the purse money and record goes to the horse who beats zfortune, and not to the horse who runs faster than some girl ran a totally unrelated race that happened to be the same day and distance. It is foolish to say "slow race" blah blah blah without looking at the performance of the specific animal as an individual, outside the context of his opponents. You can not draw conclusions with a track variant and a final time from a silverbulletday and a risen star. To even suggest that Indian Blessing ran a better race is misleading and incorrect. Final time and beyers mean sooooooooo much less than than style and form and the manner in which the race was run.

All you can say now is that pyro looks like he could compete in the derby if he isn't a victim of a bad trip.