Preakness - I don't think I like anyone

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I feel the exact same way about the race as you do. One additional factor is that Street Sense may regress by a couple of lengths just based on the fact that the race is not at Churchill. He seems to move way up at Churchill. I think that the top 3 horses are vulnerable but I don't see a legitimate alternative.

How can the top three be vulnerable if there are no legitimate alternatives?
Doesn't that kinda make them invulnerable?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

How can the top three be vulnerable if there are no legitimate alternatives?
Doesn't that kinda make them invulnerable?

maybe each is vulnerable to the other two, but as a whole, not to the rest of the field?

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Danzig

maybe each is vulnerable to the other two, but as a whole, not to the rest of the field?

vulnerable to each other I can go with. I was going with the premise of the thread that these are all bounces candidates with nothing to like in the Preakness. I don't see it. I would rate their odds the same as the order of finish in the derby. The newcomers I don't see as an exacta threat, maybe third.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

How can the top three be vulnerable if there are no legitimate alternatives?
Doesn't that kinda make them invulnerable?

What I meant by vulnerable is that these horses may not run nearly as well this time. If there are no other good horses in the race, then there is still a good chance that one of the favorites will win. But I only look to bet on a horse that I think is going to run a big race. If I think that there is a good chance that a horse won't fire, I'm not going to bet that horse any way and hope that his "B" or "C" game will be good enough to win.

If you think that a horse is not going to fire, I think it's dangerous to bet the horse regardless of the competition. The reason being that it is too hard to predict the extent to which a horse won't fire. Scat Daddy is a perfect example. If you thought that he wasn't going to fire in the Derby, there was still no way to know whether he would get beaten by 8 lengths or 35 lengths. He ended up getting beaten by 35 lengths.

Anyway, we all have different methods of handicapping. The first thing that I personally look for is a horse that I think will run a big race. If I don't think that a horse is going to run something near his best, I won't bet him even if the competition is sub-par.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

What I meant by vulnerable is that these horses may not run nearly as well this time. If there are no other good horses in the race, then there is still a good chance that one of the favorites will win. But I only look to bet on a horse that I think is going to run a big race. If I think that there is a good chance that a horse won't fire, I'm not going to bet that horse any way and hope that his "B" or "C" game will be good enough to win.

If you think that a horse is not going to fire, I think it's dangerous to bet the horse regardless of the competition. The reason being that it is too hard to predict the extent to which a horse won't fire. Scat Daddy is a perfect example. If you thought that he wasn't going to fire in the Derby, there was still no way to know whether he would get beaten by 8 lengths or 35 lengths. He ended up getting beaten by 35 lengths.

Anyway, we all have different methods of handicapping. The first thing that I personally look for is a horse that I think will run a big race. If I don't think that a horse is going to run something near his best, I won't bet him even if the competition is sub-par.

I don't expect Street Sense, Hard Spun, or Curlin to 'not fire". I'm expecting good efforts from all of them. None of them have shown me the type of signals that they are inconsistent, over-raced, over-the-top etc.
It's not a race that I'm interested in betting. I just don't get all the expectations of bouncing and not firing. These horses have nearly spotless records and always have shown up when the gates open.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I don't expect Street Sense, Hard Spun, or Curlin to 'not fire". I'm expecting good efforts from all of them. None of them have shown me the type of signals that they are inconsistent, over-raced, over-the-top etc.
It's not a race that I'm interested in betting. I just don't get all the expectations of bouncing and not firing. These horses have nearly spotless records and always have shown up when the gates open.

This is a totally different situation. These horses have never come back on only two weeks rest.

Not that horses who run well in the Derby don't often come back and run well in the Preakness. They often times run well. Derby winners have done exceptionally well in the Preakness in recent years. It just depends on the situation and the horse. I didn't expect Barbaro, Giacamo, or Smarty Jones to bounce in the Preakness. It just depends on the situation. I judge every horse as an individual.