The worst pedigree wins the Derby

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by Danzig

oh come now somer, quit displaying your lack of knowledge!


lol, i surely hope you know i'm just kidding you!!

I know Mrs Z, I stopped posting a lot of pedigree stuff a few years ago cause frankly most folks aren't that interested and unless you study the stuff, it makes little sense. Besides, folks can go to Dr Roman's site or read other real experts and get a better explanation than I can give. Back when Brock, Dragon and others were here (actually at ESPN) a lot, we had some good threads but there are always those who just don't want to hear it and I respect that...still, I'm not gonna sit back when someone makes a statement that is simply wrong. I believe that stamina does come primarily from the dam side but Street Sense certainly is not suffering in that regard.

[Bobby Fischer]

pedigree in order - Running style

SS - late
HS - Early
NOBIZ - early
Liquidity - early
BwanaBull - nonexistant

No one is going to wire the derby this year. A speed horse always takes the lead into the lane and then is passed mid-stretch by the winner. The Speed horse finishes at least 3rd. Toss Liquidity and BwanaBull from all tickets. Nobiz shows that he flattens out, not fast enough. Leaves speed (HardSpun=maybe,curlin-maybe,Stormello-longshot,Scatdaddy-longshot) winner(SS-maybe,Curlin-maybe,CQ-longshot,Tiago-longshot)

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Whoever the guy was that thought Street Sense had the worst pedigree in the race---either he, or his numerical system, is nuts.

The mother was a very solid horse, the sire had an OUTSTANDING freshman crop, and certainly the horse is bred to get a distance.

From a pedigree standpoint, the worst horse in the race to see out the 10 furlong distance was Stormello. And the horse with the worst overall pedigree in the race was I'mawildandcrazy guy...who was by Wild Event out of an unraced Top Account mare.

[Danzig]

yeah, i went to check on imawild's pedigree after he finished fourth....thought well i'd have never seen that coming!
always a long shot to come in near the top, the trick is figuring out which one.

This pedigree analysis is slanted as well. If a horse that is not supposed to get the distance and does, then one goes back and reanalayzes and finds that a distant relative did fine at distance. Yea, thats the ticket, that explains it.

And if a horse that by whoevers method, is supposed to get distance and turns out to be a sprinter, some go back, and find a sprinter somewhere in the line... ahhh yes, there it is, his great grandmother.

The really good tools to analyze this stuff with some degree of certainty are not here yet.

Every advertisment I look at for breeding in the DRF boasts about Grade I winner. Then the foals run poorly and the "new" horse now advertised by the breeder(farm) is one that had progeny that are grade 1 winners. Nothing about how many broke down, % that never even made it to the track, just the success stories. Quite amazing and so inexact. On most of these horses we have no idea what the rest of their foals have done

For those of you who remember Alvin Robertson, a very good basketball player, defensive allstar, apparently often in trouble with the law. His daughter plays on my daughters HS basketball team. Alvin was 6'3", a fantastic athlete. His daughter is 5'5". My daughter is 5'7", taller than my wife and I. Alldistrict as a 10th and 11th grader. Alvins daughter has not made it to the varsity yet. Genetics is a crazy thing.

I have read Dr. Romans site and it is a very noble attempt to put some rigorous statistical data together to try and make sense of a very difficult thing. So climbing on each others pedigree experts seems like a tenuous duty.

I have beat this to death in the past so I will stop. I will go with Somer's breed the best with the best (and I will add hope they have as little genetic background in common as possible) and hope for the best. The trouble is determing the best.

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Whoever the guy was that thought Street Sense had the worst pedigree in the race---either he, or his numerical system, is nuts.

The mother was a very solid horse, the sire had an OUTSTANDING freshman crop, and certainly the horse is bred to get a distance.

From a pedigree standpoint, the worst horse in the race to see out the 10 furlong distance was Stormello. And the horse with the worst overall pedigree in the race was I'mawildandcrazy guy...who was by Wild Event out of an unraced Top Account mare.

I won't argue that Stormello was among those most likely to be calling a taxi at the eighth-pole, but Teufelsberg gets a special award for being inbred to the family of Johannesburg, Minardi, Tale of the Cat, Pulpit, none of which could last out the 10f. Then he goes out in 1:16 for the 6f in the Blue Grass and STILL couldn't hold on. Imagine what Hard Spun could have done with a 1:16+?

As to 'crazy guy', his sire Wild Event won a G1 on turf, winning from 8f to 12f, and is already the sire of a Derby winner, Eu Tambem, winner of the 2006/7 Argentine Derby at 2500m (12.5f) on dirt; he is by top sire Wild Again and a half-brother to G1 winners Paradise Creek and Forbidden Apple. Top Account won the King's Bishop at Saratoga when it was G2, placed in the Jerome and NYRA Mile (G1), by Private Account out of G2 winner Up the Flagpole and a half-brother to 3 G1 winners plus 3 other SWs. Crazy Guy's female family isn't fashionable but is solid - lots of runners and winners, with a sprinkling of SWs (Din's Dancer, G1-placed SW of over $1/2 million, e.g.). I wouldn't call this a bad pedigree at all.

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Veitch didn't exactly say he has the worst pedigree, I saw what he said. He's a pedigree "expert", whatever that entails, but he does do some writing in the DRF on pedigree so he must know a bit of what he speaks of. It was a number system, and on his system SS somehow came out last. He was referring to SS's dam, whom he thought was sprinter influenced.

He may have been 'Bedazzled' by the fact that all 4 of mum's wins were at less than a mile. But guess what? She only ran at 8f or more on dirt once and was second. They tried her 8 times on turf (APR doesn't give distances) and was placed only twice, but that could be because she didn't like turf. These days, if a midlevel horse is sprinting well, there is no incentive to try them longer because purses are the same and training for distance is harder.

He should have done more than scratched the surface. Bedazzled's SW half-sister Binalegend was by a sprinter Binalong and was able to win a stakes race around two turns, and the second dam was a SW at 9f.

[MisterB]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Veitch didn't exactly say he has the worst pedigree, I saw what he said. He's a pedigree "expert", whatever that entails, but he does do some writing in the DRF on pedigree so he must know a bit of what he speaks of. It was a number system, and on his system SS somehow came out last. He was referring to SS's dam, whom he thought was sprinter influenced.

So if he came up last, and he put all these Numbers together, he was the worst of them all.

EOM

Thank you

[sumitas]

it would have been fun to have a ped analysis thread prior to the derby...maybe for the preakness.

Originally Posted by sumitas

it would have been fun to have a ped analysis thread prior to the derby...maybe for the preakness.

I would love that.