Place Vs. Fave/Long Exacta Running Tab

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Grits

Dream on darlin', and let's see how many of those I pine over.

You are the best....I pm'd you. Check it. Good luck my dear.

[ArlJim78]

If all this brainpower could somehow be harnessed to benefit mankind, Al Gore could rest at night.

[Grits]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

If all this brainpower could somehow be harnessed to benefit mankind, Al Gore could rest at night.

Al's sleeping with his Oscar and Tipper. So Al's happy.

[brianwspencer]

I'm bored.

I looked at all of the available charts on Equibase, between Santa Anita, Gulfstream and Aqueduct. It only comprised eighteen race days total, but I went through them.

I used Randall's original idea, of 10-1+ shot running in the top two versus a 10-1+ shot running behind the favorite (any favorite, lukewarm or odds-on) in the race. With that, it presumes that regardless of how you played it, that 10-1+ horse was the one you liked.

The totals I got were:

Aqueduct:
Place Wagers: $139.20
Exacta: $222.40

Gulfstream:
Place Wagers: $292.40
Exacta: $440.80

Santa Anita:
Place Wagers: $335.20 (may I add, just ONE of the exactas was worth $302.80 for a deuce, almost entirely negating the other sixteen double-digit place horses all by itself)
Exacta:$593.00

Total for published race days on Equibase:
Place Wagers: $766.80
Exacta: $1,256.20

Not even close so far.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

I'm bored.

I looked at all of the available charts on Equibase, between Santa Anita, Gulfstream and Aqueduct. It only comprised eighteen race days total, but I went through them.

I used Randall's original idea, of 10-1+ shot running in the top two versus a 10-1+ shot running behind the favorite (any favorite, lukewarm or odds-on) in the race. With that, it presumes that regardless of how you played it, that 10-1+ horse was the one you liked.

The totals I got were:

Aqueduct:
Place Wagers: $139.20
Exacta: $222.40

Gulfstream:
Place Wagers: $292.40
Exacta: $440.80

Santa Anita:
Place Wagers: $335.20 (may I add, just ONE of the exactas was worth $302.80 for a deuce, almost entirely negating the other sixteen double-digit place horses all by itself)
Exacta:$593.00

Total for published race days on Equibase:
Place Wagers: $766.80
Exacta: $1,256.20

Not even close so far.

Apparently you missed Andy's post from before. You have short changed my side by quite a bit. You missed all the win bets when those longshots won...If you do it again, you'll find me on top.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Apparently you missed Andy's post from before. You have short changed my side by quite a bit. You missed all the win bets when those longshots won...If you do it again, you'll find me on top.

I'm not sure he did....he said a 10-1+ running in the top two.

I would like to know the total number of examples.

I just asked the smartest statistical person I know, who knows little to nothing about racing, and he is going to think about it. He did suggest using pools that are larger as they will have little to no random skew. I said we were.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm not sure he did....he said a 10-1+ running in the top two.

I would like to know the total number of examples.

I just asked the smartest statistical person I know, who knows little to nothing about racing, and he is going to think about it. He did suggest using pools that are larger as they will have little to no random skew. I said we were.

GOOD ENOUGH. its fixed now. 1st or second on the place side vs. exacta on bottom for the other side. It will be reasonably close on second thought. But I'd say 60/40 in my direction at the end.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm not sure he did....he said a 10-1+ running in the top two.

I would like to know the total number of examples.

I just asked the smartest statistical person I know, who knows little to nothing about racing, and he is going to think about it. He did suggest using pools that are larger as they will have little to no random skew. I said we were.

You know what it is also Andy, I'm at the mercy of some of those longshots WINNING the race as simply finishing second will not do it for me...But the combo will vs. the exacta.

[randallscott35]

Also, with the addendum that Andy pointed out, this will go much faster. Could be done within two weeks.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

You know what it is also Andy, I'm at the mercy of some of those longshots WINNING the race as simply finishing second will not do it for me...But the combo will vs. the exacta.

No, the ones winning help you, as you get the place money and can't have a positive exacta result. Y must equal zero in that variation. In other words, you have two possible positive results and the exacta has only one.

The reason Brian's " outlyer " ( the $300 exacta ) has to count is there will be outlyers of HUGE prices that run first or second and beef up the place result where there is zero cash in the exacta. You should hit the exacta somewhere close to 40% of the time WHEN YOU FINISH SECOND.

[VOL JACK]

My standard play is $50 to win and $25 ex. box with my key horse and my second choice in the race. Or $25 ex. keying my horse over 2 horses. I have never understood the bet to win then turn around and key my horse in second only! A place bet is a hedge, i prefer to hedge with an exacta. I am kinda like Andy Beyer in that if am right I want to be really right and if my opion was wrong I didn't deserve to cash, anyhow. Perfect example is today in the last race @G.P my key horse #4 @ 7-1 paid only $7.40 to place, even with a 56-1 winning the race. One more example is my friend @ the OTB I attend is a $200 WP guy. He refuses to play an exacta. There are alot times that my $100 cashes for alot more than his $200 place bets. P.S. I'm really looking forward to the Youbet shows Andy!!

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

mrs btw..is a m.i t grad..congrats andy..

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

mrs btw..is a m.i t grad..congrats andy..

There aint no " mrs ", how do you think I am able to live my ridiculous life, but the person I ask is, in fact, an MIT grad coincidentally.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Apparently you missed Andy's post from before. You have short changed my side by quite a bit. You missed all the win bets when those longshots won...If you do it again, you'll find me on top.

Ok if I factor in the win bets, then that doubles the exacta bets, as the original premise was bet $50WP, or $100 on the exacta.

So these totals reflect $2 WP on each race with a 10-1+ shot in the top two, versus a $4 cold exacta with the favorite over said 10-1+ shot.

$4 Exacta: $2,512.40
$2WP: $1,576.70

I'm not trying to say that it's not possible that the numbers wouldn't even out over time, but over these 18 race days -- when factoring in the win money gained from a $2 WP bet, it closed the gap only by a miniscule percentage.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Ok if I factor in the win bets, then that doubles the exacta bets, as the original premise was bet $50WP, or $100 on the exacta.

So these totals reflect $2 WP on each race with a 10-1+ shot in the top two, versus a $4 cold exacta with the favorite over said 10-1+ shot.

$4 Exacta: $2,512.40
$2WP: $1,576.70

I'm not trying to say that it's not possible that the numbers wouldn't even out over time, but over these 18 race days -- when factoring in the win money gained from a $2 WP bet, it closed the gap only by a miniscule percentage.

Buzz, you did it wrong again. You are doubling the exacta.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Buzz, you did it wrong again. You are doubling the exacta.

He's doubling it because you are doubling the money bet on the other side. However, it is not at all what we are looking at.

The closer argument to his last numbers is $2 WP or a $2 exacta box.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Ok if I factor in the win bets, then that doubles the exacta bets, as the original premise was bet $50WP, or $100 on the exacta.

So these totals reflect $2 WP on each race with a 10-1+ shot in the top two, versus a $4 cold exacta with the favorite over said 10-1+ shot.

$4 Exacta: $2,512.40
$2WP: $1,576.70

I'm not trying to say that it's not possible that the numbers wouldn't even out over time, but over these 18 race days -- when factoring in the win money gained from a $2 WP bet, it closed the gap only by a miniscule percentage.

We are only looking at one part of the total wager.....$2 to place versus $2 below the favorite in the exacta. We are trying to determine which is a better hedge.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

We are only looking at one part of the total wager.....$2 to place versus $2 below the favorite in the exacta. We are trying to determine which is a better hedge.

That was the first set of numbers I did, with no regard to anything else.

Sorry if I misunderstood the original premise that created the question to begin with, I thought it was the $50 WP vs $100 Exacta that started the whole thing...

Ho-hum.

[Grits]

[quote=brianwspencer]Ok if I factor in the win bets, then that doubles the exacta bets, as the original premise was bet $50WP, or $100 on the exacta.

BINGO, and that's why this is troubling me. Thank you Bryan. We're getting away from my original statement. Far away.

So these totals reflect $2 WP on each race with a 10-1+ shot in the top two, versus a $4 cold exacta with the favorite over said 10-1+ shot.

$4 Exacta: $2,512.40
$2WP: $1,576.70

I'm not trying to say that it's not possible that the numbers wouldn't even out over time, but over these 18 race days -- when factoring in the win money gained from a $2 WP bet, it closed the gap only by a miniscule percentage.

This bet was not about win betting, this was about place betting. Go back to my original post, where I told you to look at today's 6th at GP. If you want to look at a $50 place bet, etc, .....something's not jiving with my original point. I've got to refer back.

[randallscott35]

[quote=Grits]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Ok if I factor in the win bets, then that doubles the exacta bets, as the original premise was bet $50WP, or $100 on the exacta.

BINGO, and that's why this is troubling me. Thank you Bryan. We're getting away from my original statement. Far away.



This bet was not about win betting, this was about place betting. Go back to my original post, where I told you to look at today's 6th at GP. If you want to look at a $50 place bet, etc, .....something's not jiving with my original point. I've got to refer back.

WHAT? It's pretty clear how this works. If we do this on a 2 dollar bet, essentially I have 2$ win and place on a horse. You have 2$ to win and 2$ with the favorite over top in the exacta. That is exactly what it is!!