Two at Toga (2023)

[moses]

Nice call with Printrack.

[theguarantee]

Thanks Moses - lets be on our game the next few days to both close out in the black - good luck.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Antares was game in defeat. Just missing. I had the wrong Chad Brown horse in race 8.

$280.00 wagered
$286.00 returned

Well, I’m back in the red after being shut out yesterday. $288.00 wagered, $286.00 returned. Let’s try to change that today.

Friday picks.

First bet: Race 4 - #4 Yacowlef 12/1. I am not hugely against Carl Spackler here but he comes back on short rest and I think this Euro import faced some pretty tough competition in his own right overseas. Jack Sisterson has had some nice success in limited attempts with shippers to the US, though notably is not very good off long layoffs. Still, this one should be a good value play at 12/1 and has shown the ability to run well off the layoff. I’m not sure how the pace plays out here but this one should have some versatility to run near the front or come from off the pace a bit.

Second bet: Race 5 - #10 Tornado Road 12/1. I know that Lukas is horrible with first time starters but I can’t ignore that the 3 most recent workouts are lightning for this 2YO. The 5 Locked will be the rightful favorite here but I don’t want to take a short price on a horse that had early trouble last out (and who, for a Pletcher horse was suspiciously not relevant on the tote board at 12/1.) Locked and his 3/2 stablemate Be You were both beaten in that race by…you guessed it…a Wayne Lukas 2YO (though not a FTS.) Tornado Road worked recently with that horse and put in a 47.80 workout that day. This horse is a half-brother to Carribean Caper, who won 5 of 8 lifetime starts including the G3 Dogwood (all of his non-wins are in stakes races.) Tornado Road also gets the outside post, which I love for these young horses. Yes, they can veer off but they also tend to avoid trouble at the start. This race has some interesting entries, including Locked, Cox’s Drum Roll Please, a Chad, a couple McPeeks, a couple Weavers, and even a rare Irad Mount aboard a Bill Mott horse. But for me, I’m going to take a shot on this one, who I think is very talented.

[moses]

Ok. Now that the 2 stays up, really rooting for the 4 here as I’m alive to a not insignificant double payout and have the 4 in other bets.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

And of course Race 8 is OFF now. I toyed with the thought of going with Daily Grind in race 6…which was my original pick. But I think Dahoss is right that the race is loaded so I’m going to take a shot instead with #7 Going the Distance in race 10. Good luck all.

Posting Saturday picks as well.

Race 10 - #2 Matareya 6/1.
Race 12 - #2 Arcangelo 5/2.

I’m going to switch things up. Sticking with Arcangelo but I’m going to change my first bet (Matareya) and instead go Race 8 - #2 Monet Never 6/1.

[theguarantee]

Best Bet: Race 11 - #1 Soldier Rising 5/1 - I know he's not exactly the winning type but he ran well in this race last year and this years edition looks pretty weak. I thought the prep was an easy toss as he was all types of impacted by the Rebels Romance incident. The rest of his form stacks up with any of these and I think he's found the right spot today.

Best Value: Race 10 - #3 Maryquitecontrary 15/1 - More of a place play as I think Echo Zulu is likely going to win but I think there are some things to like with her. The last was too short as she's a bigger long striding type that takes some time to wind up. She appears to have gone a bit off form but I think its more muddled up. I don't understand why there isn't a new jockey today but I suppose that will boost the price. Needs things to really heat up but I think will be gobbling up ground late so if they're all gasping for breath late maybe she has an outsiders chance and I feel is at least the right one to try to get into cold exactas or tris.

Wanted to make a play in the Travers and maybe there's some value getting against Forte, at least in my opinion, but I can't really decide if I prefer Arcangelo or Mage and just hoping one of the two gets it done for all of my multis.

Good luck.