5/7 (CD): 148th Kentucky Derby Day

[LITF]

Serious question. How are we supposed to play this game with any confidence moving forward? I mean, what? I get upsets happen. And I get they make little sense at times but I can't even think of a comparison in any sport to explain to my non horse racing friends what just happened. This is not St. Peter's. This is a team that didn't even make the NCAA tournament somehow WINNNING the NCAA tournament. (I get the pace was hot but there were plenty of closes that didn't close like him). Come on...

[King Glorious]

I think you don’t change up your normal way of handicapping races because something crazy happened. Don’t let “anything can happen” make you start throwing money at what you think is illogical.

They could run this race 100 more times and tell me in advance that he is going to win and I STILL wouldn’t bet him.

[LITF]

Isn't that the problem? We'll see how he runs back but come on. I heard Randy Moss say that this is what happens when you have a pace like we had today but we had some of the best closers in recent Derby memory not close like he closed. He out closed Mo Donegal? Really? I haven't watched the replay yet but that seems far fetched unless Mo got stopped somewhere along the way. This was just one of those moments that makes you question (with all of your being) why you've chosen this to be your hobby.

And if I have to hear about that ride one more freaking time...that ride should not have mattered. That ride should have gotten him 10th, which would've been an outstanding run from him.

I hope they test this horse like he was a Baffert winning his 100th Derby. At least they would make sense. Otherwise...

[OldDog]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I think you don’t change up your normal way of handicapping races because something crazy happened. Don’t let “anything can happen” make you start throwing money at what you think is illogical.

They could run this race 100 more times and tell me in advance that he is going to win and I STILL wouldn’t bet him.

Agree. The two horses that I thought had the best chances at winning would have been 1-2 but for a freaky run from Rich Strike, a run that I will be shocked if he ever repeats it.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by LITF

Serious question. How are we supposed to play this game with any confidence moving forward? I mean, what? I get upsets happen. And I get they make little sense at times but I can't even think of a comparison in any sport to explain to my non horse racing friends what just happened. This is not St. Peter's. This is a team that didn't even make the NCAA tournament somehow WINNNING the NCAA tournament. (I get the pace was hot but there were plenty of closes that didn't close like him). Come on...

The main closers were Zandon and Mo Donegal.

Ahead of the race, much was made of the former laying closer than he had in the Blue Grass. That proved to be a somewhat faulty strategy as they went :45+ and 1:10+ and that horse was only 5-6 lengths or so away. Prat also starting advancing a bit early (with a 1/2 mile still left to go). Shades of Point Given perhaps.

Mo Donegal didn't make a move until the top of the stretch (the winner was already advancing and awaiting room while saving ground) and when he did he got the patented 15-wide run that's always good for a "split the field" effort. The minor closer Barber Road chartered a similar course.

[moses]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

The main closers were Zandon and Mo Donegal.

Ahead of the race, much was made of the former laying closer than he had in the Blue Grass. That proved to be a somewhat faulty strategy as they went :45+ and 1:10+ and that horse was only 5-6 lengths or so away. Prat also starting advancing a bit early (with a 1/2 mile still left to go). Shades of Point Given perhaps.

Mo Donegal didn't make a move until the top of the stretch (the winner was already advancing and awaiting room while saving ground) and when he did he got the patented 15-wide run that's always good for a "split the field" effort. The minor closer Barber Road chartered a similar course.

As someone who bet Mo Donegal, I keep wondering - would Mo Donegal have won if Sonny Leon was riding him instead of Irad? At one point in time, those two horses were basically at the same spot on the track. They took different approaches/routes and we see what happened. Not sure Irad really gave him a shot to win.

I’m still in shock from that race.

[Kitan]

Originally Posted by moses

As someone who bet Mo Donegal, I keep wondering - would Mo Donegal have won if Sonny Leon was riding him instead of Irad? At one point in time, those two horses were basically at the same spot on the track. They took different approaches/routes and we see what happened. Not sure Irad really gave him a shot to win.

I’m still in shock from that race.

Reverse is true too. Rich Strike also doesn't win with Irad riding him.

[OldDog]

BloodHorse reports that Rich Strike is the first Derby winner to have been claimed. Has any Derby winner ever come into the race off AE status?

[Dahoss]

As head scratching a result in a big race as I have ever seen. I just watched the replay a few times.

The winner ran. He really ran. Sure, he got a fantastic ride, but he somehow managed to run the race of his life when he needed it.

Epicenter got a perfect ride as well and ran his eyeballs out. To be that close and still be there, he did everything but win.

I think the decision to have Zandon more involved early cost them a Derby win. Easy to say it now, but he did not have the same kick and not going by Epicenter when he looked loaded around the turn tells me he used too much energy early.

The other closers have no real excuse. Simplification ran well but is a cut below the best. Mo Donegal had no excuse. I thought his ride was fine. Heading into the turn, Rich Strike quickened faster than he did. Around the turn, Irad had the choice to follow him or go around. He went around and maybe in hindsight had he followed him he could have found room, but he also might not have. Either way, I'm not sure it mattered.

I thought Tawny Port ran huge. He got a perfect ride as well and while I'm not sure he wants to go this far, is much better than I thought.

Fun race where the winner was impossible to come up with. Happens everyday. Just not usually in our biggest races.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

As head scratching a result in a big race as I have ever seen. I just watched the replay a few times.

The winner ran. He really ran. Sure, he got a fantastic ride, but he somehow managed to run the race of his life when he needed it.

Epicenter got a perfect ride as well and ran his eyeballs out. To be that close and still be there, he did everything but win.

I think the decision to have Zandon more involved early cost them a Derby win. Easy to say it now, but he did not have the same kick and not going by Epicenter when he looked loaded around the turn tells me he used too much energy early.

The other closers have no real excuse. Simplification ran well but is a cut below the best. Mo Donegal had no excuse. I thought his ride was fine. Heading into the turn, Rich Strike quickened faster than he did. Around the turn, Irad had the choice to follow him or go around. He went around and maybe in hindsight had he followed him he could have found room, but he also might not have. Either way, I'm not sure it mattered.

I thought Tawny Port ran huge. He got a perfect ride as well and while I'm not sure he wants to go this far, is much better than I thought.

Fun race where the winner was impossible to come up with. Happens everyday. Just not usually in our biggest races.

Yeah and you can't fault the ride on Zandon. You make the decision to be close to the pace before the race and are already committed when the insane fractions are registered.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

As head scratching a result in a big race as I have ever seen. I just watched the replay a few times.

The winner ran. He really ran. Sure, he got a fantastic ride, but he somehow managed to run the race of his life when he needed it.

Epicenter got a perfect ride as well and ran his eyeballs out. To be that close and still be there, he did everything but win.

I think the decision to have Zandon more involved early cost them a Derby win. Easy to say it now, but he did not have the same kick and not going by Epicenter when he looked loaded around the turn tells me he used too much energy early.

The other closers have no real excuse. Simplification ran well but is a cut below the best. Mo Donegal had no excuse. I thought his ride was fine. Heading into the turn, Rich Strike quickened faster than he did. Around the turn, Irad had the choice to follow him or go around. He went around and maybe in hindsight had he followed him he could have found room, but he also might not have. Either way, I'm not sure it mattered.

I thought Tawny Port ran huge. He got a perfect ride as well and while I'm not sure he wants to go this far, is much better than I thought.

Fun race where the winner was impossible to come up with. Happens everyday. Just not usually in our biggest races.

I thought Zozos ran really well also. 30 grand becomes 5 million in 9 months for the connections, somebody hit the horsey lottery.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

The main closers were Zandon and Mo Donegal.

Ahead of the race, much was made of the former laying closer than he had in the Blue Grass. That proved to be a somewhat faulty strategy as they went :45+ and 1:10+ and that horse was only 5-6 lengths or so away. Prat also starting advancing a bit early (with a 1/2 mile still left to go). Shades of Point Given perhaps.

Mo Donegal didn't make a move until the top of the stretch (the winner was already advancing and awaiting room while saving ground) and when he did he got the patented 15-wide run that's always good for a "split the field" effort. The minor closer Barber Road chartered a similar course.

I've been thinking all night that if Zandon couldn't win with that setup he never could beat this bunch. After reading your post I concede that it was because he was closer to the pace that cost him. Mid stretch it looked like he was going to put Epicenter away and just flattened.

[Hoblin]

Originally Posted by LITF

Serious question. How are we supposed to play this game with any confidence moving forward? I mean, what? I get upsets happen. And I get they make little sense at times but I can't even think of a comparison in any sport to explain to my non horse racing friends what just happened. This is not St. Peter's. This is a team that didn't even make the NCAA tournament somehow WINNNING the NCAA tournament. (I get the pace was hot but there were plenty of closes that didn't close like him). Come on...

Rich Strike had a BRIS late pace figure of 89 three races back at a mile, 93 two races back at 1 1/16, and 107 last race going 1 1/8 (finishing ahead of undercard winner Stolen Base), so it made sense that he could move forward at 1 1/4 miles, especially if there was a hot pace up front. Being the second-youngest horse in the race, a case could also be made that he would catch up in figures to those who matured before him.

Was he on my tickets? No. But looking back at the PPs (which I do after every losing wager), it wasn’t an impossible result by any stretch.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Hoblin

Rich Strike had a BRIS late pace figure of 89 three races back at a mile, 93 two races back at 1 1/16, and 107 last race going 1 1/8 (finishing ahead of undercard winner Stolen Base), so it made sense that he could move forward at 1 1/4 miles, especially if there was a hot pace up front. Being the second-youngest horse in the race, a case could also be made that he would catch up in figures to those who matured before him.

Was he on my tickets? No. But looking back at the PPs (which I do after every losing wager), it wasn’t an impossible result by any stretch.

Of course it was impossible. The horse ran and he was well prepared and got an incredible ride.

But he was impossible. I don't care when he was born, he was completely outclassed going into the race and had been soundly beaten by these same horses before.

[Alabama Stakes]

Came home in 37 last time on poly and freaked on the local surface in second start. I was hoping he got in. Didn’t do me any good.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Came home in 37 last time on poly and freaked on the local surface in second start. I was hoping he got in. Didn’t do me any good.

Yeah he really "freaked" in that 30k claimer.

It's like you're allergic to saying intelligent things.

[Kitan]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Of course it was impossible. The horse ran and he was well prepared and got an incredible ride.

But he was impossible. I don't care when he was born, he was completely outclassed going into the race and had been soundly beaten by these same horses before.

Won by 17 lengths over the track and 59.3 final work over the surface, excuses his two other dirt races, 107 BRIS LP last time when galloping out in front, Keen Ice x Smart Strike stretching to 10f, dam a G1 winner at 9f and G1 placed at 10f, etc.

Likely? Of course not. But solely on the synopsis above? I've seen more "impossible" horses win.

[moses]

Originally Posted by Kitan

Won by 17 lengths over the track and 59.3 final work over the surface, excuses his two other dirt races, 107 BRIS LP last time when galloping out in front, Keen Ice x Smart Strike stretching to 10f, dam a G1 winner at 9f and G1 placed at 10f, etc.

Likely? Of course not. But solely on the synopsis above? I've seen more "impossible" horses win.

My cousin and I have been discussing if we could have included him in our combined Pick 5 bet. We were alive going into the Derby and I had ended up convinced the pace would be hot.

We only used 4 horses in the Derby: Mo Donegal, Zandon, Messier, and White Abarrio. We could have easily scrapped Messier. We both soured on him late.

As one of the few deep closers in the field, could we have used Rich Strike instead? We looked at everything you’re saying and obviously there are things to like. But there are things to like about every horse.

Based on the figures, him only finishing 3rd in the Jeff Ruby, and him only having one win which was a maiden claimer, I don’t see how we could have possibly included him. His figures were improving but he needed to take a massive jump up.

Two people at our party had him though. One person just wanted the longest shot on the board. The other person is 6 years old. I’m going to guess that’s about 90% of people who had him.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by moses

My cousin and I have been discussing if we could have included him in our combined Pick 5 bet. We were alive going into the Derby and I had ended up convinced the pace would be hot.

We only used 4 horses in the Derby: Mo Donegal, Zandon, Messier, and White Abarrio. We could have easily scrapped Messier. We both soured on him late.

As one of the few deep closers in the field, could we have used Rich Strike instead? We looked at everything you’re saying and obviously there are things to like. But there are things to like about every horse.

Based on the figures, him only finishing 3rd in the Jeff Ruby, and him only having one win which was a maiden claimer, I don’t see how we could have possibly included him. His figures were improving but he needed to take a massive jump up.

Two people at our party had him though. One person just wanted the longest shot on the board. The other person is 6 years old. I’m going to guess that’s about 90% of people who had him.

Yeah it’s always easy AFTER an 80-1 wins to show reasons why he could win. Things like a gallop out, workout with no real context, Keen Ice as his sire (not sure that was a good thing but I digress).

The reality was all of the things mentioned could make him an interesting horse to spice up the super…maybe triple. He was 80-1 (and 99-1 earlier in the day) for a reason. It took a perfect storm of events for him to win.

Credit to the horse, the connections and a ride that will go down as one of the best Derby rides in history. Let’s see what happens in Baltimore.

[Kitan]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Yeah it’s always easy AFTER an 80-1 wins to show reasons why he could win. Things like a gallop out, workout with no real context, Keen Ice as his sire (not sure that was a good thing but I digress).

Sometimes you guys forget that this is supposed to be a forum for open discussion, not just a place to bicker and troll. I gave my opinion on how the horse might have been possible to some, which you may not agree on, but that's the point of a discussion