#1
|
||||
|
||||
2/12-14 (CD): Derby Future Wager (Pool 3)
Kentucky Derby Future Wagering Pool 3
1 Caddo River 12-1 2 Candy Man Rocket 20-1 3 Concert Tour 20-1 4 Dream Shake 20-1 5 Essential Quality 8-1 6 Fire At Will 50-1 7 Freedom Fighter 20-1 8 Greatest Honour 15-1 9 Highly Motivated 20-1 10 Hot Rod Charlie 20-1 11 Jackie's Warrior 30-1 12 Keepmeinmind 20-1 13 Life Is Good 8-1 14 Mandaloun 30-1 15 Medina Spirit 20-1 16 Midnight Bourbon 30-1 17 Nova Rags 30-1 18 Prevalence 20-1 19 Risk Taking 15-1 20 Roman Centurian 30-1 21 Senor Buscador 30-1 22 Swiftsure 30-1 23 The Great One 20-1 24 "All Other 3-Year-Olds" 9-5
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans |
#2
|
||||
|
||||
There are nine new wagering interests compared to pool 2, which was staged Jan. 22-24: Frank Fletcher Racing Operation's Candy Man Rocket and Michael Shanley's Nova Rags, the top two finishers in the $200,000 Sam F. Davis (G3); Exline-Border Racing, SAF Racing, and Richard Hausman's 4 3/4-length debut winner Dream Shake; Freedom Fighter; Godolphin's 8 1/2-length debut winner Prevalence; Klaravich Stables' $200,000 Withers Stakes (G3) winner Risk Taking; Don Alberto Stable and Qatar Racing Limited's Robert B. Lewis runner-up Roman Centurian; Siena Farms and Asmussenequine.com's undefeated Swiftsure; and ERJ Racing, Train Wreck AI Racing Stables, Niall Brennan, Tom Fitz, and William Strauss' 14-length maiden winner The Great One..
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans |
#3
|
||||
|
||||
Gone from the previous Future Wager Pool are:
Bezos Capo Kane Mutasaabeq Olympiad Prate Prime Factor Proxy Spielberg Wipe the Slate Prime Factor at 21-1 and Bezos at 26-1 were the lowest odds of the group in the previous Future Wager Pool three weeks ago.
__________________
Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson |
#4
|
||||
|
||||
Kinda curious to see if Prevalence or Dream Shake will be above that 20/1 figure or if they'll get a good chunk of money since they won impressively and are newcomers to the pool.
|
#5
|
||||
|
||||
confused why Proxy was dropped. His last race he came in 2nd,, and the horse that finished 1st and 3rd are in ???
__________________
Arrogate is the best horse since The Bid, and The Bid was better than Secretariat!!!! |
#6
|
||||
|
||||
Quote:
I noticed that at some point in the evening, All Others dropped from 6-1 to 7-2, before settling at 4-1. It looked like someone had popped $10K onto All Others. (I'd looked when there was $11K on All Others, and a relatively short time later there was $23K.) https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/...r/derby-pool-3
__________________
Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson Last edited by Dunbar : 02-14-2021 at 07:41 AM. Reason: clarity |
#7
|
||||
|
||||
Quote:
Concert Tour remains around 16/1 so it looks like I’ll be putting some money on him again. I’m not sure I like the All Others bet for Pool 3. How many horses not listed have a strong chance to win the Derby? If that horse emerges, I’d rather just wait to bet it in Pool 4 or on Derby day than to take the field at 4/1. |
#8
|
||||
|
||||
Quote:
In the 3 weeks since Pool 2, 9 horses were replaced. Similarly, many of the horses from Pool 3 will not get into the starting gate on May 1. If the 6-12 horses from Pool 3's All Others that do get into the starting gate have a combined chance of at least 25% to win the Derby, then the All Others bet was a good one at 3.3-1. 2020 was weird timing-wise, so let's look at 2019. Pool 2 in 2019 was held Feb 8-10. Compared to this year's Pool 3, that's an extra week before the Derby was run. Only 7 horses from the 2019 Pool 2 made it to the starting gate. There were 12 horses from All Others, including the first 2 to cross the finish line.
__________________
Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson |
#9
|
||||
|
||||
Here are the final odds, to the right of the ML:
Quote:
__________________
Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson |
#10
|
||||
|
||||
Quote:
|