2/12-14 (CD): Derby Future Wager (Pool 3)

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by moses

Kinda curious to see if Prevalence or Dream Shake will be above that 20/1 figure or if they'll get a good chunk of money since they won impressively and are newcomers to the pool.

Going into the final day, with almost 150K in the pool, Dream Shake is 32-1 while Prevalence is 12-1.

I noticed that at some point in the evening, All Others dropped from 6-1 to 7-2, before settling at 4-1. It looked like someone had popped $10K onto All Others. (I'd looked when there was $11K on All Others, and a relatively short time later there was $23K.)

https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/...r/derby-pool-3

[moses]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Going into the final day, with almost 150K in the pool, Dream Shake is 32-1 while Prevalence is 12-1.

I noticed that at some point in the evening, All Others dropped from 6-1 to 7-2, before settling at 4-1. It looked like someone had popped $10K onto All Others. (I'd looked when there was $11K on All Others, and a relatively short time later there was $23K.)

https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/...r/derby-pool-3

Interesting as I like Dream Shake more than Prevalence.

Concert Tour remains around 16/1 so it looks like I’ll be putting some money on him again. I’m not sure I like the All Others bet for Pool 3. How many horses not listed have a strong chance to win the Derby? If that horse emerges, I’d rather just wait to bet it in Pool 4 or on Derby day than to take the field at 4/1.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by moses

... I’m not sure I like the All Others bet for Pool 3. How many horses not listed have a strong chance to win the Derby? If that horse emerges, I’d rather just wait to bet it in Pool 4 or on Derby day than to take the field at 4/1.

I don't bet on All Others with some specific horses in mind. It's a bet that new contenders will emerge from the remaining preps, and also that there is usually some attrition from the current leading contenders.

In the 3 weeks since Pool 2, 9 horses were replaced. Similarly, many of the horses from Pool 3 will not get into the starting gate on May 1. If the 6-12 horses from Pool 3's All Others that do get into the starting gate have a combined chance of at least 25% to win the Derby, then the All Others bet was a good one at 3.3-1.

2020 was weird timing-wise, so let's look at 2019. Pool 2 in 2019 was held Feb 8-10. Compared to this year's Pool 3, that's an extra week before the Derby was run. Only 7 horses from the 2019 Pool 2 made it to the starting gate. There were 12 horses from All Others, including the first 2 to cross the finish line.

[moses]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I don't bet on All Others with some specific horses in mind. It's a bet that new contenders will emerge from the remaining preps, and also that there is usually some attrition from the current leading contenders.

In the 3 weeks since Pool 2, 9 horses were replaced. Similarly, many of the horses from Pool 3 will not get into the starting gate on May 1. If the 6-12 horses from Pool 3's All Others that do get into the starting gate have a combined chance of at least 25% to win the Derby, then the All Others bet was a good one at 3.3-1.

2020 was weird timing-wise, so let's look at 2019. Pool 2 in 2019 was held Feb 8-10. Compared to this year's Pool 3, that's an extra week before the Derby was run. Only 7 horses from the 2019 Pool 2 made it to the starting gate. There were 12 horses from All Others, including the first 2 to cross the finish line.

Good points. I’m typically not putting enough money down for 7/2 odds to be appealing in February (not that 17/1 on Concert Tour is great odds either). Makes sense though.