Derby Trail Forums

Go Back   Derby Trail Forums > Stakes Archive
Reload this Page 4/12-14 (OP): AR Derby, Apple Blossom (G1's) ~ Racing Festival
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Today's Posts

Reply
Page 1 of 2 1 2 >
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 04-10-2019, 01:59 PM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
  
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 43,256
Default 4/12-14 (OP): AR Derby, Apple Blossom (G1's) ~ Racing Festival
FRIDAY



SATURDAY





__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
Last edited by Kasept : 04-10-2019 at 05:10 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 04-10-2019, 02:19 PM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
Jerome Park
  
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 9,935
Default
Quite a pot for Tikhvin Flew. He should have been in the Bay Shore if they wanted to be ambitious.
__________________
Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 04-10-2019, 02:36 PM
moses's Avatar
moses moses is offline
Oriental Park
  
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 3,622
Default
With the ML for Improbable set at 8-5 and Omaha Beach set at 2-1, might be some nice value if you like a horse other than those two.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 04-10-2019, 02:54 PM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
Jerome Park
  
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 9,935
Default
Quote:
Originally Posted by moses View Post
With the ML for Improbable set at 8-5 and Omaha Beach set at 2-1, might be some nice value if you like a horse other than those two.
Why, you think those two are underlays?
__________________
Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 04-10-2019, 03:29 PM
moses's Avatar
moses moses is offline
Oriental Park
  
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 3,622
Default
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind View Post
Why, you think those two are underlays?
At those odds, no. But there is a lot of hype around Improbable and Omaha Beach...so...I’m imagining a situation where people get wrapped up in those two, we see them at even money and something-to-5, and maybe the odds on another horse like Long Range Toddy or Country House rise enough where it’s worth it to take a chance on them.

On top of that, both favorites like to be close to the pace, and it seems like it might be crowded up front or perhaps they stalk well but get boxed in on the rail a bit. So I could see the race setting up for a horse other than those two.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 04-10-2019, 09:31 PM
cakes44's Avatar
cakes44 cakes44 is offline
The Curragh
  
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 2,744
Default
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind View Post
Why, you think those two are underlays?
Well what odds do you have LRT at if those hold up?
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 04-11-2019, 07:34 PM
cakes44's Avatar
cakes44 cakes44 is offline
The Curragh
  
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 2,744
Default
Not much talk about the Apple Blossom. Wow what a race!
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 04-12-2019, 07:46 AM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
  
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 43,256
Default
SUNDAY



__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 04-13-2019, 07:31 AM
herkhorse's Avatar
herkhorse herkhorse is offline
Flemington
  
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Gonesville
Posts: 11,422
Default
Chris and Dave in the handicap. 20-1 ml, should handle the slop.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 04-13-2019, 08:35 AM
RHT2004 RHT2004 is offline
Atlantic City Race Course
  
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 4,829
Default
Quote:
Originally Posted by herkhorse View Post
Chris and Dave in the handicap. 20-1 ml, should handle the slop.
That whole field seems like it can handle the slop.
Is is going to be sloppy?
Reply With Quote
  #11  
Old 04-13-2019, 08:48 AM
casp0555's Avatar
casp0555 casp0555 is offline
Saratoga
  
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: Humble,Texas
Posts: 18,884
Default
Quote:
Originally Posted by RHT2004 View Post
That whole field seems like it can handle the slop.
Is is going to be sloppy?
well its raining right now and there is a 100% chance of precipitation, they will be lucky if the severe weather doesn't shut them down during the course of the day...so yes, its going to be sloppy

https://www.wunderground.com/weather...prings-village
__________________
"Wise men talk because they have something to say, fools talk because they have to say something" - Plato
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 04-13-2019, 09:26 AM
herkhorse's Avatar
herkhorse herkhorse is offline
Flemington
  
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Gonesville
Posts: 11,422
Default
Santana’s horse looks live in the derby at a big price.
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 04-13-2019, 09:42 AM
Alabama Stakes Alabama Stakes is offline
Havre de Grace
  
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: suffolk downs
Posts: 5,811
Default
Quote:
Originally Posted by RHT2004 View Post
That whole field seems like it can handle the slop.
Is is going to be sloppy?
I remember Lone Sailor galloping in the mud at Saratoga. I like him. It is a good race though, anyone could win.
Reply With Quote
  #14  
Old 04-13-2019, 09:44 AM
Alabama Stakes Alabama Stakes is offline
Havre de Grace
  
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: suffolk downs
Posts: 5,811
Default
Quote:
Originally Posted by cakes44 View Post
Not much talk about the Apple Blossom. Wow what a race!
Remember Zenyatta winning the Apple Blossom when Rachel didn't show?
Reply With Quote
  #15  
Old 04-13-2019, 09:59 AM
RHT2004 RHT2004 is offline
Atlantic City Race Course
  
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 4,829
Default
I'm using 1 2 4 8
Reply With Quote
  #16  
Old 04-13-2019, 10:34 AM
RHT2004 RHT2004 is offline
Atlantic City Race Course
  
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 4,829
Default
Hoping Mitole jogs today. I think he can win the Met Mile.
Reply With Quote
  #17  
Old 04-13-2019, 11:50 AM
moses's Avatar
moses moses is offline
Oriental Park
  
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 3,622
Default
Quote:
Originally Posted by herkhorse View Post
Santana’s horse looks live in the derby at a big price.
He’s the wildcard for me. I’ll be backing Country House once again...hopefully it finally pays off. I’m out on Omaha Beach. Have it ranked:

#1 Improbable
#8 Country House
#7 Galilean
#11 Long Range Toddy
#5 Laughing Fox
Reply With Quote
  #18  
Old 04-13-2019, 11:51 AM
moses's Avatar
moses moses is offline
Oriental Park
  
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 3,622
Default
Quote:
Originally Posted by RHT2004 View Post
Hoping Mitole jogs today. I think he can win the Met Mile.
He’ll win. My biggest issue is figuring out how to maximize winnings off of him.
Reply With Quote
  #19  
Old 04-13-2019, 03:28 PM
RHT2004 RHT2004 is offline
Atlantic City Race Course
  
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 4,829
Default
Quote:
Originally Posted by moses View Post
He’s the wildcard for me. I’ll be backing Country House once again...hopefully it finally pays off. I’m out on Omaha Beach. Have it ranked:

#1 Improbable
#8 Country House
#7 Galilean
#11 Long Range Toddy
#5 Laughing Fox
I ended all bets with 8,11 while acknowledging that Improbable is the horse to beat.
Reply With Quote
  #20  
Old 04-13-2019, 05:15 PM
moses's Avatar
moses moses is offline
Oriental Park
  
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 3,622
Default
Quote:
Originally Posted by RHT2004 View Post
I ended all bets with 8,11 while acknowledging that Improbable is the horse to beat.
I like that. Good luck.
Reply With Quote
Reply
Page 1 of 2 1 2 >

« Previous Thread | Next Thread »


Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 02:40 PM.

Contact Us - Derby Trail Steve Byk Steve’s Notes DT Stables DT Shoppe Gallery Contact Links Archive - Top

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.