Revisiting SNS - Saturday

[Scav]

I just saw his TG for Saturday. I absolutely love him. Right now I have him 5 lengths better then EVERYONE but Papi Chullo. Papi Chullo is fast enough and will get the trip, but Mike Smith is on him, nuff said. The only horse that worries me is Summer Book.....He is a horse that will get a good trip and has the number power to compete.

Honestly, I think this is a great situation to actually play SNS and play him hard, and here is why. The media is going nuts about his post and yadda yadda, people are going to spread in this race thus making the pick three payouts more 'uniform'. Not saying he isn't going to be the low pick three, but if he is 3 slots in, he gets SINGLED ON EVERY TICKET. Given his post position, people are going to try and beat him and I just don't see it. I actually think he has a good chance to be 2w by the turn.

Back to SNS, EVERY SINGLE time in his life, he has improved at least TWO TG points 2nd start off a layoff. He ran huge last time, actually pairing his top exactly, and given his history, he should EXPLODE in this race. Note the nice work back after that race, it wasn't insanely fast, it was get him out there with a 300lb gorilla on his back so he wouldn't do too much. Just enough to take the edge off him (obviously not because SNS whacked Trom in the chest and left a mark)

My only concern is that Ramon doesn't try something cute. Hopefully the 60k that he will get will make him focus, but NBC will be there, and hopefully he isn't trying out for J-Lo dance reality show on MTV. I really wish Kent D was on him, but I don't have Trombetta ear yet, at least it isn't SHANE LAVIOLETTE.

Scav's Recommendation: Purposely get crappy drunk on Friday night so you don't blow your money betting Los Alamitos and get up the next morning and single the hell out of this horse in every possible way and take the 8/5 you are going to get and RUN.

I've just looked at the entries and he's going to be tough regardless of the post. BUT....if he's not on the lead at the start of the turn then start praying that Ramon doesn't go into ****** mode.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

I've just looked at the entries and he's going to be tough regardless of the post. BUT....if he's not on the lead at the start of the turn then start praying that Ramon doesn't go into ****** mode.

If 60k in like 2 minutes doesn't motivate a man to not be stupid, then I don't know what would

[tycharles01]

Rehoboth is gonna be dangerous in this one. Has been running great-level of comp not been great(this field alot better) However gets a good post and should be well rested. Also gets 2lbs like SNS

[brianwspencer]

i'm going to study the TGs on the plane rides tomorrow, but without really digging into the race -- i did notice that papi chullo and summer book have the raw number capabilities to upset this one

media or not, the post is certainly a concern...not enough to leave him off tickets, but certainly enough to not go all in for the win on my end.

do i think he wins? probably. do i want to eat 8-5 from the 12 hole on him? not as much.

[blackthroatedwind]

I think Silver Wagon is very dangerous here. His two turn races, all as a 3YO at the old Gulfstream, are reasonably good, and he is clearly fast enough. He should get a good trip, and the pace will be contentious. I don't discount Sweetnorthernsaint, and Dry Martini is OK, but little else scares me here.

Scav.....Papa Chullo? Come on. And Summer Book? He's ridiculous. But he's also 100-1 so good luck.

[golfer]

Haven't seen the thorograph's yet, but if my memory serves me, I believe Papi Chullo's best races are at a mile, the extra 1/8th may hurt him.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I think Silver Wagon is very dangerous here. His two turn races, all as a 3YO at the old Gulfstream, are reasonably good, and he is clearly fast enough. He should get a good trip, and the pace will be contentious. I don't discount Sweetnorthernsaint, and Dry Martini is OK, but little else scares me here.

Scav.....Papa Chullo? Come on. And Summer Book? He's ridiculous. But he's also 100-1 so good luck.

Fast enough at 6f, but can he run that number going 3 extra panels?

Please forgive me for giving Summer Book the possiblity of winning, I lost my brain for a few, just found it and we are ready to go......

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

i have it sns /silver waggon...prado would not take unless he didnt think he could contend/arminian summer / dry martini..and my bomb get funky,,

[SentToStud]

I believe the following is true....

At 9 Furlongs at Gulfstream during this meet and the prior two meets, only one horse has won from the 10 post or further out... Barbaro in the FL Derby last year.

SNS has got his work cut out for him. Can't fault anyone playing against him tomorrow at a short number.

[Cajungator26]

Silver Wagon...

I think the post might be too much for SNS.

[JJP]

Here's how I price the race:

1 Dry Martini 7-1
2 Get Funky 20-1
3 Summer Book 30-1
4 Blazing Rate 25-1
5 Silver Wagon 4-1
6 Rehoboth 7-1
7 Papi Chullo 10-1
8 McCanns Mojave 10-1
9 Texcess 5-1
10 Bobs Proud Moment 50-1
11 Armenian Summer 25-1
12 Sweetnorthernsaint between 2-1 and 5-2

[Scav]

Originally Posted by JJP

Here's how I price the race:

1 Dry Martini 7-1
2 Get Funky 20-1
3 Summer Book 30-1
4 Blazing Rate 25-1
5 Silver Wagon 4-1
6 Rehoboth 7-1
7 Papi Chullo 10-1
8 McCanns Mojave 10-1
9 Texcess 5-1
10 Bobs Proud Moment 50-1
11 Armenian Summer 25-1
12 Sweetnorthernsaint between 2-1 and 5-2

IF SNS is 5/2, I am putting 2k on him to win....I am alreaday dropping 1k on him, but I will double down if that is the case

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Scav

IF SNS is 5/2, I am putting 2k on him to win....I am alreaday dropping 1k on him, but I will double down if that is the case

I'm a big SNS fan, but I can think of better things to do with 2K then to place it on the nose of a horse that drew so poorly.

[JJP]

Originally Posted by Scav

IF SNS is 5/2, I am putting 2k on him to win....I am alreaday dropping 1k on him, but I will double down if that is the case

Going 4 wide into the first turn would not be a shock to me. And if that's the case, its going to be very difficult to win. Silver Wagon may be lower than 4-1; 7-2ish probably.

[Gander]

Look at it this way. If SNS loses, he will have a myriad of excuses. For one the post position. Also, Dominguez will probably make another premature move, which he may have to.

Scavs, not sure why you are so anxious to bet that kind of money on this horse. Why all the buzz surrounding him?

Yes its a bad field and he should win (on paper at least), but you and I see about 10 horses that look better than SNS lose every weekend.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Gander

Look at it this way. If SNS loses, he will have a myriad of excuses. For one the post position. Also, Dominguez will probably make another premature move, which he may have to.

Scavs, not sure why you are so anxious to bet that kind of money on this horse. Why all the buzz surrounding him?

Yes its a bad field and he should win (on paper at least), but you and I see about 10 horses that look better than SNS lose every weekend.

I hope SNS wins for the simple reason that the Donn is looking like it has the potential for a big field and I'd hate to see Invasor or Premium Tap draw outside and scratch citing SNS's defeat as proof that you can't overcome an outside post at Gulfstream.

[dr. fager]

I really like SNS and his connections.....however I also remember Musique Toujours winning the last time the SM Classic was at GS, just thinking about it makes my jaw drop all over again.

[randallscott35]

I'm not betting him off a run first time in wraps with that post. I think he's off the board in the race.

[dr. fager]

Speaking on this race, this couldn't have happened very often....Silver Wagon and Rehoboth are full brothers.