Pick-6 record?

[joeydb]

Steve,

With Gulfstream's Jackpot Pick 6 carryover at $4559011 as I write this, and it to be paid out on 6/29 if not hit by a single ticket before then, are they positioned to break an all-time record for a Pick-6 pool?

It seems that they already have broken a record in terms of the ratio to the base bet, since $4559011 for 20 cents is equivalent to $45,590,110 for $2.

Hope you are well.

Joe

[freddymo]

two things to consider about the rainbow 6.

The meet become devoid of quality as soon as Keeneland and Belmont open.

As the jackpot becomes super large folks might elect to bet it carries to the last day and ave up for an all out assault final 6 races

[ranger5830]

Originally Posted by freddymo

two things to consider about the rainbow 6.

The meet become devoid of quality as soon as Keeneland and Belmont open.

As the jackpot becomes super large folks might elect to bet it carries to the last day and ave up for an all out assault final 6 races

I think the bet will become more attractive as it grows, not less. I mean where else can you have a chance at $5 million for 20 cents?

How much is in the pool on closing day is an interesting question. It is my experience that no matter how big the pool is, people will send it in enough to make it a near zero-sum pool after takeout. Last year, the carryover going in was $1,961,806 and another $5,278,477 was bet on closing day, so it resulted in an overpayment for that day after takeout of about $906,000, or about 17%, which truly is about as good as it gets.

There are 28 racing days left at Gulfstream, not including closing day. If the carryover amount increases by $100k/ day then by closing day it would be at about $7.3 million, I would expect at least $20 million, if not more, to be bet just on the last day.

[Mike A]

Should be pretty interesting to say the least. As mentioned the quality of the
races goes down with other tracks opening. Wonder what the field sizes
will be by then.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by ranger5830

I think the bet will become more attractive as it grows, not less. I mean where else can you have a chance at $5 million for 20 cents?

How much is in the pool on closing day is an interesting question. It is my experience that no matter how big the pool is, people will send it in enough to make it a near zero-sum pool after takeout. Last year, the carryover going in was $1,961,806 and another $5,278,477 was bet on closing day, so it resulted in an overpayment for that day after takeout of about $906,000, or about 17%, which truly is about as good as it gets.

There are 28 racing days left at Gulfstream, not including closing day. If the carryover amount increases by $100k/ day then by closing day it would be at about $7.3 million, I would expect at least $20 million, if not more, to be bet just on the last day.

Because the chance of it paying to one ticket decreases exponentially. look at Wednesdays card - 6-7 horse fields for the most part. You may see a bump in interest once Tampa closes and the FL population moves back between Calder and GP, but the horses that are going to run up north this spring / summer are already heading that way - thus the population at GP is growing sparser each and every week.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Because the chance of it paying to one ticket decreases exponentially. look at Wednesdays card - 6-7 horse fields for the most part. You may see a bump in interest once Tampa closes and the FL population moves back between Calder and GP, but the horses that are going to run up north this spring / summer are already heading that way - thus the population at GP is growing sparser each and every week.

Gulfstream's meet essentially ended Sunday with their switch to 3-day weeks and AQU main/turf & KEE back this week. Hell, even Tampa's Wednesday card is better than Gulfstream's Friday card. So I guess they got what they wanted and the Rainbow 6 will keep some attention on Hallandale where there would've been none.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Gulfstream's meet essentially ended Sunday with their switch to 3-day weeks and AQU main/turf & KEE back this week. Hell, even Tampa's Wednesday card is better than Gulfstream's Friday card. So I guess they got what they wanted and the Rainbow 6 will keep some attention on Hallandale where there would've been none.

Yup. I guess one could also look at it like, if the average daily input to pool decreases by 70% due to lack of interest/interest elsewhere, the probability of covering the sequence with one ticket might actually increase as there are fewer people playing it...If nothing else, it's a fascination study.

[ranger5830]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Because the chance of it paying to one ticket decreases exponentially. look at Wednesdays card - 6-7 horse fields for the most part. You may see a bump in interest once Tampa closes and the FL population moves back between Calder and GP, but the horses that are going to run up north this spring / summer are already heading that way - thus the population at GP is growing sparser each and every week.

Starting this week, GP only runs Fri-Sun, and starting 4-19 they only run Sat-Sun, not even running on Memorial Day. I looked at Friday's entries and the pick 6 races have 9,9,11,10,6 and 13 horses entered, so with 694,980 possible combinations it seems pretty likely there will be some tickets sold that are unique, held by only one person. Of course, whether any of those unique tickets wind up winning is far less likely.

[declansharbor]

Soon to have smallish fields up until closing day where they'll find every horse, donkey, or camel available to fill in some big fields??

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Yup. I guess one could also look at it like, if the average daily input to pool decreases by 70% due to lack of interest/interest elsewhere, the probability of covering the sequence with one ticket might actually increase as there are fewer people playing it...If nothing else, it's a fascination study.

I tend to agree with you here. Most of us are waiting for the final day and the lack of interest will mean less tickets in the pool. I would predict it doesn't make it to the final day.

[joeydb]

Originally Posted by jms62

I tend to agree with you here. Most of us are waiting for the final day and the lack of interest will mean less tickets in the pool. I would predict it doesn't make it to the final day.

I agree.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by joeydb

I agree.

Mark the date on the calendar for future reference

[freddymo]

I think it is a certainty that it carry's to last day. Plenty of reasons:

1) the bet is not a rip off in its current context
2) Smaller fields daily from now on
3) Bigger players will make sure they have supreme coverage to assure carries

[robfla]

Originally Posted by freddymo

I think it is a certainty that it carry's to last day. Plenty of reasons:

1) the bet is not a rip off in its current context
2) Smaller fields daily from now on
3) Bigger players will make sure they have supreme coverage to assure carries

4.) only 27 racing days left until the mandatory payout

[mnmark]

with 4.6 million in the pool right now if they were to average 150 k carryover daily which seems possible the pool would reach 8.6 million on closing day. At least 4 million more so the pool should be at around 13 million give or take a million.

[ateamstupid]

3 horses in the finale today would've taken down the whole pot, then 2 of them went nose-to-nose in a suicidal pace duel. The other had traffic in the stretch.

[robfla]

I wonder if anyone is alive today. There are no tickets to the .50 Pick 5.

I don't see will pay probables anywhere.

Two very tough horses in the sequence.

[Kasept]

All are covered..