11/22: Hollywood Park ($560k C/O)

[Kasept]

Lots of chalky winners at Big A Wednesday but photo beat in 8th cost P4. Hope everyone did well. Warmest wishes to you and yours for a Happy Thanksgiving! One major focus today: the $560k P6 C/O at Hollywood which has potential to reach $3,000,000. Thoughts below on the potentially explosive sequence..


HOLLYWOOD PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-T (P6, P3, DD)

With fair amount of speed signed on, highlighted by Tasty Treat and Catienus Gold, inclined toward Blushing Martha and Song Girl stalking and closing..

Best Value: #6 Song Girl 5-1 (A) 2nd
Next Best: #4 Blushing Martha 7-2 (A) WON ($8.20)
Exotics Use: #1 Tasty Treat 3-1 (B) 4th
Super Add: #5 Catienus Gold 4-1 (B) 3rd
Backup Plays: #8 Your Special Day 10-1 (C) 6th


5th: CLM, 3yo, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Beau Royale, Idontrollonshabbos & One Bien's Gift should get you through leg. Mr. Why Why could make it on back up plays. 'Shabbos' gets the "LLW" moniker on my program, the potent return to "Level of Last Win". One Bien's Gift does his best work on this strip, but he may not get the pace he likes. Beau Royale, from 1/23 (2012) Curtis Harvey, drops..

Most Likely: #3 Idontrollonshabbos 5-1 (A) 2nd
Next Best: #5 The Bien's Gift 7-2 (B) 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Beau Royale 3-1 (B) WON ($6.80)
Super Add: #4 Mr. Why Why 3-1 (C) 6th


6th: ALW/N3X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Amorphic 6-pack will be an "all" button race for medium-large players. Private Affair has some class to her but has been away nearly 14 months. Imperialistic Diva is at home this strip/trip and versus ALW types. Byrony is 2/2 this course, best when in ALW company, but utterly one-paced. So Belle gets Leparoux who will fit her rally. Hard to Resist's two best career efforts came this course earlier this year. Lures Talamo. Plaza de Indias may have been entered to make race go for stablemate Private Affair, but with little speed involved, may forget to stop..

Big SCR of #6 Plaza De Indias from the 6th which feeds into Brad Free's speculation that he was entered strictly to get the race to go for stablemate #1 Private Affair..

Most Likely: #5 Hard to Resist 5-2 (A) 2nd
Best Value: #1 Private Affair 6-1 (A) WON ($6.80)
Next Best: #3 Byrony 2-1 (B) 3rd

"All" Coverage: #4 So Belle 6-1 (C); #2 Late SCR


7th: Cal-OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Treacherous event with all but 30-1 Warren's Carlie possible. Church Avenue is perhaps the single small budgets want as potenial lone or controlling speed. Twelve Folds, named for late Alhambra policeman, flashed brilliance in 3rd career start and would be easy winner with anything close to that effort. Has never missed a check. Trapper's Bounty a danger off the claim and back at prefered oval..

Most Likely: #4 Church Avenue 5-2 (A) WON ($6.20)
Best Value: #6 Trapper's Bounty 10-1 (A) 3rd
Next Best: #7 Twelve Folds 3-1 (B) 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Melanistic 8-1 (B) 6th
Super Add: #3 Roar Baby Roar 3-1 (C) 2nd
Backup Plays: #8 You Can Dream 5-1 (C) 5th


8th: CLM, 3yo, 8.5f-T (DD)

About half the field appear capable (1-5-7-8-9), but A Toast to You has been super consistent since moving to the turf. Has best tactical speed in field and is perhaps a clever single for small tickets. Candy Waltz is a little intriguing off the Pender claim and stretching out while moving to grass. His Cal-bred brother, (Danzing Tribal, with Diodoro at TuP currently), broke his maiden at SA down the hill and Andy Harrington suggests he'll be fine with added ground..

Most Likely: #8 A Toast to You 7-2 (A) 2nd
Next Best: #7 You Know I Know 3-1 (B) 4th
Best Value: #1 Candy Waltz 12-1 (C) 9th
Exotics Use: #5 Shadow Runner 9-2 (C) WON ($16.60)
Super Add: #9 Time Lord 5-1 (C) 5th


9th: MDN CLM, 2yo, 6f (Super Hi-5)

Quirky finale features hatful of first time starters including I'll Run the Show (20-1), Los Al mojo invader bandied on ATR by Merrow and Davidowitz. Of the ones to start, Warrior James and Sacred Ovation are the major players..

Most Likely: #11 Warrior James 3-1 (A) 3rd
Next Best: #5 Sacred Ovation 5-2 (A) WON ($4.60)
Best Value: #12 I'll Run the Show 20-1 (B) 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Mentalize 8-1 (B) 8th
Super Add: #6 Radar Ahead 20-1 (C) 9th


<$200 P6 Play:

4: 4-6
5: 1-3-5
6: 1-5
7: 4-6
8: 8
9: 5-11-12

2x3x2x2x1x3 = 72 x $2 = $144

$2 Pick 6 (4-1-1-4-5-1/5/9) Paid $99.40 (5of6)


<$50 P4 Play:

6: 1-2/SCR-3-4-5
7: 2-3-4-6-7-8
8: 8
9: 5-11-12

5x6x1x3 = 90 x .50 = $45


Good luck!
Steve