Not raced at two results

[somerfrost]

For those considering Curlin, here is a list of horses who didn't race at two but ran in the Derby since 1956, some very talented horses...just to illustrate what Curlin is up against:
No Regrets (finished 7th in 1956)
Gone Fishin’ (8th in 1958)
Our Dad (15th in 1959)
Gleaming Sword (14th in 1968)
Fourulla (19th in 1971)
Big Spruce (7th in 1972)
Kentuckian (10th in 1972)
Dr. Neale (15th in 1972)
Forego (4th in 1973)
Twice a Prince (12th in 1973)
Agitate (3rd in 1974)
Confederate Yankee (12th in 1974)
Media (5th in 1975)
Bold Chapeau (8th in 1975)
Amano (4th in 1976)
On the Sly (5th in 1976)
Affiliate (9th in 1977)
Best Person (15th in 1977)
Chief of Dixieland (9th in 1978)
Great Redeemer (10th in 1979)
Flying Nashua (8th in 1981)
Air Forbes One (7th in 1982)
Wavering Monarch (12th in 1982)
Majestic Shore (eased in 1984)
Irish Fighter (11th in 1985)
Wheatley Hall (6th in 1986)
Zabaleta (12th in 1986)
Pendleton Ridge (13th in 1990)
Corporate Report (9th in 1991)
Alydavid (14th in 1991)
Devil His Due (12th in 1992)
Disposal (18th in 1992)
Strodes Creek (2nd in 1994)
Pulpit (4th in 1997)
Desert Hero (13th in 1999)
Valhol (15th in 1999)
Wheelaway (5th in 2000)
Curule (7th in 2000)
Trippi (11th in 2000)
Atswhatimtalknabout (4th in 2003)
Song of the Sword (11th in 2004)
Greeley’s Galaxy (11th in 2005)
Showing Up (6th in 2006)

Curlin (? in 2007) He might be that good...just for information purposes!

[Pedigree Ann]

There are some darn good horses on that list, some that went on to G1 glory at 10f and more.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

There are some darn good horses on that list, some that went on to G1 glory at 10f and more.

Yep, but no such luck in the Derby.

[slotdirt]

Forego is absolutely an all-time great.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Forego is absolutely an all-time great.

Yeah, Forego had a bit of a problem that year facing two great horses in the Derby, his finish was actually pretty good...his greatness would manifest later on! Still, lots of very good horses have tried in the past 50 years...simply a tough spot without a foundation.

[AeWingnut]

The Derby has a history. Those who ignore it will regret it later. I am going to let Curlin beat me. I want to ignore the Juvenile Champ curse and play Street Sense but he won't be long enough to include.

[Antitrust32]

That list has about 35 horses on it.. over a 50 year period. When you have a 20 horse field and 19 of those raced at 2, 1 did not, I think it is logical to say one of those 19 will win every year when you add in race trouble, post positions, etc.

There are some good finishes in that list. A few in the money. I don't see why this "curse" cannot be broken. I understand that foundation should be important, but if the most talented horse in the race did not race at two, I dont think the "curse" will be the difference maker.

If Curlin is the best horse in the race (I am not saying he is, but I feel he is one of the top few along with SS, Nobiz and Scat Daddy), and he does not have any or much trouble, he will win. I dont put too much weight on that racing at 2 thing. He has had three very solid races this year and seems to be as fit as any horse in here.

Horses arent "supposed" to win million dollar races in their third start (unless its the Delta Jackpot or BC Juvi), and he has already done that. Geldings arent "supposed" to win the Derby, and Funny Cide did that. Barbaro wasnt "supposed" to win the Derby off of a 5 week layoff, but he did that.

I dont put any weight on the Juvi curse either. A lot of the Juvi winners peak at 2, so of course they are not going to win on the First Saturday in May when others have improved. Some of the Juvi winners also get injured and dont have the opportunity to run for the roses, and there is also distance limitations.

I hope that Street Sense and Curlin dead heat so everyone shuts up about curses.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

That list has about 35 horses on it.. over a 50 year period. When you have a 20 horse field and 19 of those raced at 2, 1 did not, I think it is logical to say one of those 19 will win every year when you add in race trouble, post positions, etc.

There are some good finishes in that list. A few in the money. I don't see why this "curse" cannot be broken. I understand that foundation should be important, but if the most talented horse in the race did not race at two, I dont think the "curse" will be the difference maker.

If Curlin is the best horse in the race (I am not saying he is, but I feel he is one of the top few along with SS, Nobiz and Scat Daddy), and he does not have any or much trouble, he will win. I dont put too much weight on that racing at 2 thing. He has had three very solid races this year and seems to be as fit as any horse in here.

Horses arent "supposed" to win million dollar races in their third start (unless its the Delta Jackpot or BC Juvi), and he has already done that. Geldings arent "supposed" to win the Derby, and Funny Cide did that. Barbaro wasnt "supposed" to win the Derby off of a 5 week layoff, but he did that.

I dont put any weight on the Juvi curse either. A lot of the Juvi winners peak at 2, so of course they are not going to win on the First Saturday in May when others have improved. Some of the Juvi winners also get injured and dont have the opportunity to run for the roses, and there is also distance limitations.

I hope that Street Sense and Curlin dead heat so everyone shuts up about curses.

i agree with your thinking in general.

the way I see it its the same as saying that horses that are racing with a disadvantage win the derby less often. Clearly horses that don't start racing until they are three have started late compared to the derby date and are at a disadvantage to the more experienced in the class.
making it hard and fast 2 vs 3 is not enough. A marginal horse may be off the hook relative to the curse because he started once in December. That doesn't mean he is a better play than a standout horse who didn't start until January.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

i agree with your thinking in general.

the way I see it its the same as saying that horses that are racing with a disadvantage win the derby less often. Clearly horses that don't start racing until they are three have started late compared to the derby date and are at a disadvantage to the more experienced in the class.
making it hard and fast 2 vs 3 is not enough. A marginal horse may be off the hook relative to the curse because he started once in December. That doesn't mean he is a better play than a standout horse who didn't start until January.

I don't think anybody is saying that...I get tired of repeating myself but...angles are another handicapping tool, they can be of value in determining whether a horse is a good bet or not. They don't take the place of normal handicapping or common sense. Last year, I bet Barbaro despite the RAN Curse, I bet (unfortunately) Point Given despite his running afoul of a couple angles...they are tools, nothing more!

[Antitrust32]

while I do think curses are meaningless, the one thing that makes me not want to bet Curlin (eventhough I will bet him in all exotics, on top and all) is the fact that he is going to be the favorite or second choice and he really has not had the toughest of competition in his last two starts.

As Andy said on the radio today, he beat Storm in May by 10 lengths, a lot of horses should beat SiM by 10 on Saturday. Curlin IMO deserves to be 10-1 not 4-1 on Derby Day, and that is the only reason I am a little put off by him.

[todko]

It's not a statistically significant sample. The sample is too small.

Some of those horses could also have won in different years.

I'll take Curlin any day over some of these with the obvious phyical issues and 2 preps at 3.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by todko

It's not a statistically significant sample. The sample is too small.

Some of those horses could also have won in different years.

I'll take Curlin any day over some of these with the obvious phyical issues and 2 preps at 3.

Again, your call! Consider them or not, but being "statistically significant" is pretty much irrelevant in horse racing due to an almost unlimited number of intervening variables (yes, I had graduate level statistics too).

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

I don't think anybody is saying that...I get tired of repeating myself but...angles are another handicapping tool, they can be of value in determining whether a horse is a good bet or not. They don't take the place of normal handicapping or common sense. Last year, I bet Barbaro despite the RAN Curse, I bet (unfortunately) Point Given despite his running afoul of a couple angles...they are tools, nothing more!

You may get tired of repeating yourself, but I also get tired of seeing these angles portrayed as handicapping tools. Frankly I don't see these rules, or angles, as just ANOTHER handicapping tool, I see them as BAD handicapping tools. As you say, normal handicapping and common sense should apply to this race, like it does to other races.

Not having raced at two does not apply to many derby starters, so it doesn't rule out many horses. The far more difficult task is what to do with all the horses that did start at two.

You mention that you posted that list to show what Curlin is up against. To me that kind of thinking is wrong, he is not up against all that history, he is only up against this field on Saturday.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

You may get tired of repeating yourself, but I also get tired of seeing these angles portrayed as handicapping tools. Frankly I don't see these rules, or angles, as just ANOTHER handicapping tool, I see them as BAD handicapping tools. As you say, normal handicapping and common sense should apply to this race, like it does to other races.

Not having raced at two does not apply to many derby starters, so it doesn't rule out many horses. The far more difficult task is what to do with all the horses that did start at two.

You mention that you posted that list to show what Curlin is up against. To me that kind of thinking is wrong, he is not up against all that history, he is only up against this field on Saturday.

Amen brother!

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

You may get tired of repeating yourself, but I also get tired of seeing these angles portrayed as handicapping tools. Frankly I don't see these rules, or angles, as just ANOTHER handicapping tool, I see them as BAD handicapping tools. As you say, normal handicapping and common sense should apply to this race, like it does to other races.

Not having raced at two does not apply to many derby starters, so it doesn't rule out many horses. The far more difficult task is what to do with all the horses that did start at two.

You mention that you posted that list to show what Curlin is up against. To me that kind of thinking is wrong, he is not up against all that history, he is only up against this field on Saturday.

If they aren't tools what would you like me to call them? Past Performances can be criticized the same way...what Curlin did in the Ark Derby doesn't necessarily translate into how he will run Saturday but most handicappers ( myself included) study PP's...why? Because they are useful tools along with others. A tool isn't good or bad, it's how you use them. There are dozens of angles I don't list cause I fail to see any causal relationship in them...the ones I do list I can defend (except for Damascus one and I state that). Call me stupid but I think a lot of folks who are thinking about betting Curlin to win might want to know that no horse without a race at two has won the Derby since 1882 and with less than 5 LT starts has won since 1918...of course Curlin may win but betting him should be a decision based on all available info not just that which you favor.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by todko

It's not a statistically significant sample. The sample is too small.

Some of those horses could also have won in different years.

I'll take Curlin any day over some of these with the obvious phyical issues and 2 preps at 3.

And...when commenting on sample size, keep in mind that the list is from 1956 to present, there were 74 years prior to 1956 without a winner also!

[randallscott35]

Somer, training is different than it was just decades ago. So going back a 100 years doesn't do it for me. The layoff issues are much less of a problem for me. Silly things like geldings being an issue was thankfully disproved. Flukes happen and slow horses like Giacomo occasionally win. Essentially it isn't meaningless but it isn't meaningful either. Races at 2, maybe is an issue. I don't like Curlin who is light on experience, but if he had the same number of races so far and his first one was on Dec 31st I doubt that would drastically change anyone's view of him.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Somer, training is different than it was just decades ago. So going back a 100 years doesn't do it for me. The layoff issues are much less of a problem for me. Silly things like geldings being an issue was thankfully disproved. Flukes happen and slow horses like Giacomo occasionally win. Essentially it isn't meaningless but it isn't meaningful either. Races at 2, maybe is an issue. I don't like Curlin who is light on experience, but if he had the same number of races so far and his first one was on Dec 31st I doubt that would drastically change anyone's view of him.

Randy...I've been waiting for you....
Nor should it...FuPeg raced the last week in December for his only 2yo race...not many of us jumped off him and we wouldn't if he raced a week later. Again...common sense! I list angles with the assumption that most handicappers have common sense. I agree that training (and breeding) has changed over the past century but these angles have held the last 20, 10, 5 years as well. Again, if I like Curlin, I'll bet Curlin but part of "liking" him is being able to convince myself that he can do what the likes of Pulpit, Indian Charlie and so many others couldn't.

[ARyan]

Originally Posted by AeWingnut

The Derby has a history. Those who ignore it will regret it later. I am going to let Curlin beat me. I want to ignore the Juvenile Champ curse and play Street Sense but he won't be long enough to include.

Not a Curlin supporter at all, but to play devil's advocate;

-Gelding
-NY Bred
-5 week layoff

Just off the top of my head...

Derby history is made to be broken...

Again, I am not a Curlin supporter.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

Randy...I've been waiting for you....
Nor should it...FuPeg raced the last week in December for his only 2yo race...not many of us jumped off him and we wouldn't if he raced a week later. Again...common sense! I list angles with the assumption that most handicappers have common sense. I agree that training (and breeding) has changed over the past century but these angles have held the last 20, 10, 5 years as well. Again, if I like Curlin, I'll bet Curlin but part of "liking" him is being able to convince myself that he can do what the likes of Pulpit, Indian Charlie and so many others couldn't.

LOL, I feel like Darth Vader....Curlin won't do it so your angles will be safe another year.