2/2 (GP): Gr. I Donn; Gr. II Swale

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by stonegossard

So who do you like genius ?

not brass hat....love the brit spears comment...

figs mean nothing

jocks dont matter at all

age dont matter..lol

you cant close if you cant run....

[stonegossard]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

not brass hat....love the brit spears comment...

figs mean nothing

jocks dont matter at all

age dont matter..lol

you cant close if you cant run....

Your running two figs comment is a stretch. In this case the jock doesnt matter. It's not like it's a new jockey....or that Diane Nelson is now riding the horse. These are older horses...not sure why him being 7 matters.

For a guy who some people say has a good opinion, you sure are not coming off as a bright guy.

So are you gonna tell me who you like Britney?

Probably Daaher....I guess you are a chalk eating weasel.

[stonegossard]

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan

I've learned a lot from this thread whether it's been Hooves, Andy or anyone else. I'm glad to be associated with folks that have so much knowledge of the game. I can honestly tell you that out of everyone on here, Hooves, Andy and Steve have helped me the most. In the end we all have to make our own decisions. I'm not sure if you were looking much at Hooves' Keeneland picks last spring, but the guy was hotter than a pistol. He was handing out 10-1 and higher bombs almost on a daily basis.

He might be brilliant.


But in this case his reasoning is borderline retarded.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by stonegossard

Your running two figs comment is a stretch. In this case the jock doesnt matter. It's not like it's a new jockey....or that Diane Nelson is now riding the horse. These are older horses...not sure why him being 7 matters.

For a guy who some people say has a good opinion, you sure are not coming off as a bright guy.

So are you gonna tell me who you like Britney?

Probably Daaher....I guess you are a chalk eating weasel.

he is the most obv choice but if i had to pick an upsetter it would be the 5/1 .but please pound brass hat..and have a great day..willies not riding at tampa bay for no reason..fyi..and your personal attacks are very funny.. just load up on brass hat..we can revisit this after the race..smart guy

[fpsoxfan]

[quote=stonegossard]Your running two figs comment is a stretch. In this case the jock doesnt matter. It's not like it's a new jockey....or that Diane Nelson is now riding the horse. These are older horses...not sure why him being 7 matters.

For a guy who some people say has a good opinion, you sure are not coming off as a bright guy.

So are you gonna tell me who you like Britney?

Probably Daaher....I guess you are a chalk eating weasel.[/QUOTE]

Ouch.
That he is not.
Stone..you are moody today man.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by stonegossard

He might be brilliant.


But in this case his reasoning is borderline retarded.

Why the strong language, Boo Boo? It ain't all that.

If you like Brass Hat, you really have to think that he, along with Fairbanks and AP Arrow are the other top ones to beat here. And really, who have any of those beaten, other than themselves?

AP did win the Clark but had a pretty soft trip and just beat BH. He was a bust at Hawthorne at a short number and was life and death to beat Rehoboth at 1/2 at Gulf last year. Frankly, his best race, imo, is his 3rd against Corinthian. He has some shot, I guess, but at 5/1 or so, I'd never use him on top.

Fairbanks looks 6/1 - 7/1 but really, how is he going to win? Against graded horses, he's needed the front and he's not going to get it. He's going to press/pass Daaher and have enough late? No way. For me, he's a top 2 toss/ marginal top 3 toss.

Brass Hat IS older. It does make a difference. He won the Mass off a perfect trip and did the same in his comeback win last year. In both he was closer than he will be in the Donn. The same is true of his Clark. He's going to be in the last 3 early in this race for certain and probably dead last. That is, of course, unless Willie gives him the semi-standard 3w/4w+ around the first turn ride he's given him numerous times.

I don't think he's good enough to overcome a poor trip and I don't think he's likely to close good enough to beat finish in front of both AP and Spring at Last who are both going to have nicer trips and first run from the second flight.

The only way Brass Hat wins is if Einstein and Daaher are both uncontrollable on the front, AP Arrow and Spring at Last are compromised by being too close and Willie saves big ground. It truly has to totally fall apart for Brass Hat to win.

I figure BH will be 5-1/6-1 and his chances of winning are more like 15-1.

I think the 1,3 and 7 are too cheap here and I do not give Einstein much of a shot.

Daaher can obviously win and if you like him, he'll probably be a worthwhile bet simply because Einstein will take far more $$ than he's worth. In fact, Einstein in the Donn alone makes it worth wagering on the race. Daaher looks to me like he'll be within a tick of 7/5.

The horse that could get lost on the board is Spring at LAst. I think he and Daaher and perhaps AP Arrow are the only contenders certain to get the trip they want. I think Spring can rate enough and if he goes off over 4/1, that will be a win play for me. I'll also use him over/under with Daaher and over AP Arrow in the ex.

[Sightseek]

With much apology for those who will be betting against him, but for the sake of the older male division I hope Dahaar dusts this group because the older male division is in desperate need of a true Grade 1 horse outside of Curlin.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

I agree with you on Daaher not being able to handle the pressure. It's a logical assumption. What I'm missing is how most on here have completely disregarded Fairbanks' chances on the assumption that John R. will force him to the lead. I'm assuming he'll keep him directly behind Daaher and let him chase the cheap speed.

Outside of Fairbanks' last two races, his previous three races will beat anyone in this field...unless A.P. Arrow repeats or improves off the Clark performance.

How is Daaher cheap speed and Fairbanks isn't?!

Originally Posted by hockey2315

How is Daaher cheap speed and Fairbanks isn't?!

I was talking about letting Daaher chase the cheap speed.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

I was talking about letting Daaher chase the cheap speed.

O ok - personally I think Daaher will be on the lead. . . None of these horses can match up with his early speed. . .

Originally Posted by hockey2315

O ok - personally I think Daaher will be on the lead. . . None of these horses can match up with his early speed. . .

Well watching how the track is playing today I'd say you're right. Should be a boring race.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

Well watching how the track is playing today I'd say you're right. Should be a boring race.

No kidding. It seems odd that this field inspired such spirited discussion, although I guess for those that don't like Daaher, it is a pretty even field.

[JJP]

I'm not sure its fair to criticize O'Neill for the "shipping factor". The one horse that comes to mind of his that had trouble shipping is Lava Man but I always wondered if racing w/out race day Bute was the factor with him.

BTW, Spring at Last won in Dubai which is a helluva lot longer ship and tougher medication rules. SaL should sit the perfect trip. Not sure what the price will be because there's 4 absolutely no chance types who figure to take very little betting $ (the 3 grassers and Dr. Googles).

[pick4]

In the Swale I think the morning line odds are nutty. Wincat has no business being 9/5 off a maiden win at Philly Park even though his trainer Kieran McLaughlin is a sharpie. Coal Play at 5/2 is using this as a prep for the FOY or perhaps a race at Fair Grounds or Oaklawn. He's not a sprinter.

Wayne Lucas has an interesting horse, Silver Edition who has run well in all three of his races less than a mile. I think he is the horse to beat in this race. But I don't like betting Wayne Lucas' horses at short odds.

Eaton's Gift might like the return to a one turn sprint. He ran a pretty darn good race at Hollywood Park in the Hollywood Futurity. His sprint races where impressive and if you look at his debut race you'll see he raced against horses who came back to win in their next starts including Kodiak Cowboy who won the Bashford Manor and Saratoga Special. Being a colt by Johannesburg his game should be one turn sprints and if he's between 4 and 6 to 1 you have to put a few bucks on his nose.

I like Eaton's Gift to win with Silver Edition finishing second.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by pick4

In the Swale I think the morning line odds are nutty. Wincat has no business being 9/5 off a maiden win at Philly Park even though his trainer Kieran McLaughlin is a sharpie. Coal Play at 5/2 is using this as a prep for the FOY or perhaps a race at Fair Grounds or Oaklawn. He's not a sprinter.

Wayne Lucas has an interesting horse, Silver Edition who has run well in all three of his races less than a mile. I think he is the horse to beat in this race. But I don't like betting Wayne Lucas' horses at short odds.

Eaton's Gift might like the return to a one turn sprint. He ran a pretty darn good race at Hollywood Park in the Hollywood Futurity. His sprint races where impressive and if you look at his debut race you'll see he raced against horses who came back to win in their next starts including Kodiak Cowboy who won the Bashford Manor and Saratoga Special. Being a colt by Johannesburg his game should be one turn sprints and if he's between 4 and 6 to 1 you have to put a few bucks on his nose.

I like Eaton's Gift to win with Silver Edition finishing second.

Wincat is going to dust this field IMO, with or without Coal Play. His race at Philly was SUPER fast for a debut, and the only reason they went to Philly was because they got a 40% bonus on the purse for him being a PA bred. 30k for a MSW win, very Toga/Del mar esqe as far as purse size is concerned. (Now I will agree that when you have a good horse, an MSW purse should mean nothing).

I fully expect him to win this race, at even money

[JJP]

I expect the value play in the Swale to be St. Joe. Brutal pace at the bullring in the jackpot race, and he was arguably the best in the Iroquois after setting a fast pace. Now he turns back. I expect Silver Edition to go off as the favorite.

[pick4]

In the Donn, Daaher looks like he is a legit favorite and a horse I will not spend much time trying to beat. He might face some pressure early from the likes of Fairbanks and maybe Kiss The Kid but he will dust those horses. The problem to this race is will there be a fast early pace which has Daaher winning the battle and losing the war or a moderate pace where Daaher has enough to negoitiate the 1 1/8 and cross the line first.

If they go too fast I think a classy horse like Brass Hat could pick up the pieces. Another horse I think will run well is Spring At Last. This horse has shown he has talent but has never won a two turn race on dirt. Yet he has faced top quality competition in some of his route races and he did not diggrace himself. I like that he was able to stalk a moderate pace on the grass and finish strong to win on opening day over Santa Anita's turf course.
I'm not worried about O'Neill shipping and his record. The fact that he is shipping to run here tells me he has confidence in the horse. It looks like he was pointing Spring At Last to this race.

I think I'm going to play Spring at Last to win. If he is 6-1 or higher I will wager more on him. I'll also box him in an exacta box with Dahrer.

[pick4]

Originally Posted by JJP

I expect the value play in the Swale to be St. Joe. Brutal pace at the bullring in the jackpot race, and he was arguably the best in the Iroquois after setting a fast pace. Now he turns back. I expect Silver Edition to go off as the favorite.

You might be right about St. Joe. While the winner of his race race was right behind him early the rest of the pack was way back. Plus Z Humor came back to win the LeCombe at Fairgrounds. I'm going to use him with my top selection

Originally Posted by pick4

In the Donn, Daaher looks like he is a legit favorite and a horse I will not spend much time trying to beat. He might face some pressure early from the likes of Fairbanks and maybe Kiss The Kid but he will dust those horses. The problem to this race is will there be a fast early pace which has Daaher winning the battle and losing the war or a moderate pace where Daaher has enough to negoitiate the 1 1/8 and cross the line first.

If they go too fast I think a classy horse like Brass Hat could pick up the pieces. Another horse I think will run well is Spring At Last. This horse has shown he has talent but has never won a two turn race on dirt. Yet he has faced top quality competition in some of his route races and he did not diggrace himself. I like that he was able to stalk a moderate pace on the grass and finish strong to win on opening day over Santa Anita's turf course.
I'm not worried about O'Neill shipping and his record. The fact that he is shipping to run here tells me he has confidence in the horse. It looks like he was pointing Spring At Last to this race.

I think I'm going to play Spring at Last to win. If he is 6-1 or higher I will wager more on him. I'll also box him in an exacta box with Dahrer.

Watch the dirt races today and keep an eye on the undercard tomorrow before deciding on a closer.

[tiggerv]

Daaher wins by open lengths whether he leads or stalks. Very hard to close on that track.