Circular Quay

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by Hoisttheflag

CQ is a slow version of Officer. Not my words but the words of somebody who really knows horses.

Thank God. Almost 10:15 am here and I thought the morning would pass without a reference to the next mysterious yet omniscient "somebody who really knows horses" to validate an opinion.

I liked the horse going in, singled him and got a little taste of the p-3 ending there. Missed the p4 ... went 3 deep in the last, but left out the 3-1 winner. grrrrrrrr.

He ran great, imo. Dominated as he should have, imo. Look forward to his next. He may well be just the 23rd best 2yo in the barn, then again, he's a Graded winner.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I just did a cursory glance at the times run at Churchill today in 6F races...

Let's start by saying Circular Quay ran 6F in 1:09.96

In the 5th race a Dale Romans 2YO firster ran 1:10.07

in the 6th race a 4YO 15K claimer, who's previous Beyer figure was 58 and had run in the low 70s early in his career ran 1:10.26

The filly 2YO stake was run in 1:10.50 and the winner, Richwomen, had a troubled trip and had previously run a Beyer of 82.

Circular Quay had a ground saving trip and beat a second time starter who had run a 65 in his debut. Yes, I understand 2YOs can, and do, improve rapidly early in their careers, but in looking at this hard data I have NO idea what people are getting so excited about.

The only intelligent thing written on this thread. I love "the greatest 2yr old in 10 years" comment. Guy needs to watch more races I guess.

Originally Posted by SentToStud

Thank God. Almost 10:15 am here and I thought the morning would pass without a reference to the next mysterious yet omniscient "somebody who really knows horses" to validate an opinion.

I liked the horse going in, singled him and got a little taste of the p-3 ending there. Missed the p4 ... went 3 deep in the last, but left out the 3-1 winner. grrrrrrrr.

He ran great, imo. Dominated as he should have, imo. Look forward to his next. He may well be just the 23rd best 2yo in the barn, then again, he's a Graded winner.

That someone has horses with Todd's dad and she married me too. LOL. Good for you for making money, but I hope you aren't one of those "best 2yr old in last 10 yrs guys". That is the writing of a madman.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Hoisttheflag

He won't even be a top 5 3yr old in that barn. He is not fast and everyone knows it. Typical Bashford Manor mediocrity. TWO YEAR OLD RACING AT THIS TIME OF YEAR MEANS NOTHING. How difficult is that for you to understand. It means they grew a little quicker, nothing else. This one isn't even fast.

Yeah he might not be a top 5yr old three years from now either. WHO CARES!
Nobody talked about how this horse would do next spring. You sound like those of us who are excited about the horse predicted he would win the Derby and the BC Classic next year. Nobody did! We are smart enough to know that it is impossible to predict who will be good 3yo the previous July. This horse looks like a very good 2yo to me (and others). If he stays healthy I like his chances in some of the bigger 2yo races this fall. That is what I said to begin this thread, and I still think that. If you disagree with that, fine. But please don't make it seem like we were saying he was lock to win the Derby or anything like that. ArlJim is right. YOU were the one to bring up how good he would be as a 3yo.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by Hoisttheflag

That someone has horses with Todd's dad and she married me too. LOL.

Wonderful.

Answer me this.

If you owned a horse today -- right now -- ranked a bit higher in Todd's barn than CQ... say the #4 2 yo colt and let's say CQ is, oh, 6th --- would you truly rather own that colt as opposed to the Graded winner CQ? Right now, today? Just curious.

Originally Posted by miraja2

Yeah he might not be a top 5yr old three years from now either. WHO CARES!
Nobody talked about how this horse would do next spring. You sound like those of us who are excited about the horse predicted he would win the Derby and the BC Classic next year. Nobody did! We are smart enough to know that it is impossible to predict who will be good 3yo the previous July. This horse looks like a very good 2yo to me (and others). If he stays healthy I like his chances in some of the bigger 2yo races this fall. That is what I said to begin this thread, and I still think that. If you disagree with that, fine. But please don't make it seem like we were saying he was lock to win the Derby or anything like that. ArlJim is right. YOU were the one to bring up how good he would be as a 3yo.

I am all for reason, and a reasonable person sees a nice horse, not "the best 2yr old in the last 10yrs". He's an ok horse, every single year we get these early budding 2yr olds and every year they flame out. His times are nothing special and I know for certain they think they have numerous better 2yr olds in their barn. That is just the Pletcher barn too. Last I checked other trainers have 2yr olds too. We haven't even seen Pletcher's $16M horse either. The Dogwood horse is a significantly better horse than CQ. I would expect Pletcher to keep CQ away from him as long as possible.

[miraja2]

"TWO YEAR OLD RACING AT THIS TIME OF YEAR MEANS NOTHING."

I don't understand it when people say things like this.
I guess they mean it doesn't help you predict who will win the TC races 10 months from now.....which is obvioulsy true. But I mean, come on, they still mean something. It was still a stakes race. They do give out an eclipse award for 2yo and I would think graded stakes wins probably are a factor in determining that.
If all you care about is the TC races then I suppose you are correct, they don't mean anything. I enjoy watching 2yo racing for its own sake, and NOT because I may be watching a horse that might possibly compete in the Kentucky Derby.

[jpops757]

I wonder why do they run races? If this race dosent move him to the top of the class, all the naysayers are just dealing with potential. This horse has produced and he has potentialmm also. If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck. Most often it is a duck. This horse ran like a champ,has a champ potentia and a champ pedigree. In spite of all the complants about this horse. He is the target now.

Originally Posted by SentToStud

Wonderful.

Answer me this.

If you owned a horse today -- right now -- ranked a bit higher in Todd's barn than CQ... say the #4 2 yo colt and let's say CQ is, oh, 6th --- would you truly rather own that colt as opposed to the Graded winner CQ? Right now, today? Just curious.

It depends on what you want to win. Most of his big owners like a Tabor are playing to win the derby. I would take Cot's two year old over CQ in a second. He will win the Hopeful unless Scat Daddy is as good as they say. CQ will not win the Hopeful, might not even be in it.

Originally Posted by miraja2

"TWO YEAR OLD RACING AT THIS TIME OF YEAR MEANS NOTHING."

I don't understand it when people say things like this.
I guess they mean it doesn't help you predict who will win the TC races 10 months from now.....which is obvioulsy true. But I mean, come on, they still mean something. It was still a stakes race. They do give out an eclipse award for 2yo and I would think graded stakes wins probably are a factor in determining that.
If all you care about is the TC races then I suppose you are correct, they don't mean anything. I enjoy watching 2yo racing for its own sake, and NOT because I may be watching a horse that might possibly compete in the Kentucky Derby.

No, it means 2yr olds change quickly and you haven't see most of them yet.
This horse is not one of the best "2yr olds in the last ten years" which is really the argument being made by one poster on this thread. That statement is insanity.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by Hoisttheflag

It depends on what you want to win. Most of his big owners like a Tabor are playing to win the derby. I would take Cot's two year old over CQ in a second. He will win the Hopeful unless Scat Daddy is as good as they say. CQ will not win the Hopeful, might not even be in it.

A bird in hand is worth.....

I'd go the other way, but, good luck! That's why they let us wager on these things.

Originally Posted by SentToStud

A bird in hand is worth.....

I'd go the other way, but, good luck! That's why they let us wager on these things.

The bird in the hand is the horse with a 99 beyer with little effort in his only race, not the one that won a 2yr old stakes race and is playing around in the low 80's with his beyers. The Dogwood horse is significantly more talented at this point than CQ. The fact that people are calling CQ great is comical.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by miraja2

"TWO YEAR OLD RACING AT THIS TIME OF YEAR MEANS NOTHING."

I don't understand it when people say things like this.
I guess they mean it doesn't help you predict who will win the TC races 10 months from now.....which is obvioulsy true. But I mean, come on, they still mean something. It was still a stakes race. They do give out an eclipse award for 2yo and I would think graded stakes wins probably are a factor in determining that.
If all you care about is the TC races then I suppose you are correct, they don't mean anything. I enjoy watching 2yo racing for its own sake, and NOT because I may be watching a horse that might possibly compete in the Kentucky Derby.

i can't understand it either, especially when you consider that five of the past fourteen derby winners debuted in June and July. I remember that stat because I looked it up myself and posted it on the previous Circular Quay thread when he broke his maiden. This thread is almost a repeat of that one post for post. I guess some people just have no problem continuously regurgitating their insane statements.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by Hoisttheflag

The bird in the hand is the horse with a 99 beyer with little effort in his only race, not the one that won a 2yr old stakes race and is playing around in the low 80's with his beyers. The Dogwood horse is significantly more talented at this point than CQ. The fact that people are calling CQ great is comical.

We'll see what happens. I'm never overimpressed by big maiden wins where talent just overwhelms in runaway style. Never. I am also as likely to bet against a 99 debut-beyer second out horse as I am to pass the race. It's interesting, but horses that debut so high beyer-wise in free-running fashion often have a hard time running back to their number. So, beware. On the other hand, CQ did do some running yesterday where he had to make something happen and he showed some athleticism doing it. Great colt? Who knows? Very nice performance though.

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

i can't understand it either, especially when you consider that five of the past fourteen derby winners debuted in June and July. I remember that stat because I looked it up myself and posted it on the previous Circular Quay thread when he broke his maiden. This thread is almost a repeat of that one post for post. I guess some people just have no problem continuously regurgitating their insane statements.

If you mean "the best 2yr old in 10yrs" as a ridiculous statement you are correct. The "great" term is also ridiculous. I guess you don't need to be fast to be great any longer.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

We'll see what happens. I'm never overimpressed by big maiden wins where talent just overwhelms in runaway style. Never. I am also as likely to bet against a 99 debut-beyer second out horse as I am to pass the race. It's interesting, but horses that debut so high beyer-wise in free-running fashion often have a hard time running back to their number. So, beware.

For what it's worth, I don't particularly disagree with this in general, but the horse being discussed with the 99 Beyer, Soaring By, did not earn his figure in " free-running fashion ". He broke a tad slow, was not rushed, and made a nice closing move to win off fairly easily. I have no real opinion of his future one way or another, and as always we need to see more races, but it wasn't one of those fast front running victories that often prove unreliable.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

For what it's worth, I don't particularly disagree with this in general, but the horse being discussed with the 99 Beyer, Soaring By, did not earn his figure in " free-running fashion ". He broke a tad slow, was not rushed, and made a nice closing move to win off fairly easily. I have no real opinion of his future one way or another, and as always we need to see more races, but it wasn't one of those fast front running victories that often prove unreliable.

No, it actually was the most impressive 2yr old race this spring, which is why it makes me laugh when Oracle says CQ is the greatest 2yr old he has seen in 10yrs and that no 2yr old will beat him this year. Soaring By is a better horse right now, but anything can happen with 2yr olds.

[ateamstupid]

Hoisttheflag, we get it. You don't like the "best 2-year-old in 10 years" comment. How many times are you gonna say it?

The only reason I think most people are down on CQ is because they heard Scat Daddy or whoever else was the top 2-year-old in Pletcher's barn. That may be true, but as I remember it, Nick Zito said SUN KING was his best 3-year-old last year. Better than Bellamy Road. So even the trainers don't know for sure what they have until the horses all prove what they can and cannot do on a track.

How ****ing hard is it for you people to comprehend that someone's opinion is just that? No one is right or wrong here. Oracle, others and I see something special in CQ. A few of you don't. That's totally cool with me, but people like Hoisttheflag won't be able to die in peace until Oracle rescinds his "best 2-year-old in 10 years" comment. Give it a rest..

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Hoisttheflag, we get it. You don't like the "best 2-year-old in 10 years" comment. How many times are you gonna say it?

The only reason I think most people are down on CQ is because they heard Scat Daddy or whoever else was the top 2-year-old in Pletcher's barn. That may be true, but as I remember it, Nick Zito said SUN KING was his best 3-year-old last year. Better than Bellamy Road. So even the trainers don't know for sure what they have until the horses all prove what they can and cannot do on a track.

How ****ing hard is it for you people to comprehend that someone's opinion is just that? No one is right or wrong here. Oracle, others and I see something special in CQ. A few of you don't. That's totally cool with me, but people like Hoisttheflag won't be able to die in peace until Oracle rescinds his "best 2-year-old in 10 years" comment. Give it a rest..

I read Oracle bashing the Cunningham guy and going off on his little "accountablity" for what you write diatribe. You want to bash people you better be able to take it.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Hoisttheflag

If you mean "the best 2yr old in 10yrs" as a ridiculous statement you are correct. The "great" term is also ridiculous. I guess you don't need to be fast to be great any longer.

No, by ridiculous I meant this one, "TWO YEAR OLD RACING AT THIS TIME OF YEAR MEANS NOTHING." Try telling that to Sea Hero, Grindstone, Real Quiet, Charismatic, and Giacomo. They all started racing in June or July.

And why is it that all racing has to have TC implications or it means nothing. It's still horse racing and the races pay off just the same as the ones that the big guys are running in. Only a limited number of races involve those horses anyway.