Any Given Saturday - Page 4

Rudeboyelvis · #61 02-18-2007, 07:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Well, he got a 95 Beyer number, so I guess I must have underrated his performance.

I really on disliked him because DrugS is so high on him.

That's hard to believe.

blackthroatedwind · #62 02-18-2007, 07:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

That's hard to believe.

That was my reaction.

#63 02-18-2007, 07:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Well, he got a 95 Beyer number, so I guess I must have underrated his performance.

I really on disliked him because DrugS is so high on him.

Beyer's can be a bag full of bull pucky and I think this shows it. This number had to come due to the early races where horses on the lead held easily. Maybe because he had a small amount of difficulty early, but I dont know what they use to determine these numbers anymore. I dont read 95 into that run. Maybe cause he shut down early.

I still say the horse should be a mid pack runner, who comes late. The fact that he was up front was competition induced. 95 for a long workout I dont see.

NTamm1215 · #64 02-18-2007, 07:50 PM

I've avoided this thread because I'm a HUGE Any Given Saturday fan, as I was completely taken by his allowance win at Keeneland last fall.

As far as yesterday's performance I knew there were a number of built-in reasons to discredit it. The first and foremost was that the field really wasn't good. I made James Wilfred the 2nd best in the race but was not surprised to see him beaten pretty handily despite finishing 3rd. However, it is imperative to remember that this was a February stake race at Tampa where a solid Pletcher horse was pointed to for a while- did you think anybody with a well-meant horse would show up?

I think, all in all, the performance was about what you'd expect off a layoff. Was it dynamic? No. Did it make me think he was a solid pick or worthy of the low price he went off last week in Pool 1? No. Most importantly, do most Derby winners make themselves clear in February? No.

It's the first step on a three-race plan to get him to the big day and I think he did what the connections would have wanted.

NT

#65 02-18-2007, 07:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I've avoided this thread because I'm a HUGE Any Given Saturday fan, as I was completely taken by his allowance win at Keeneland last fall.

As far as yesterday's performance I knew there were a number of built-in reasons to discredit it. The first and foremost was that the field really wasn't good. I made James Wilfred the 2nd best in the race but was not surprised to see him beaten pretty handily despite finishing 3rd. However, it is imperative to remember that this was a February stake race at Tampa where a solid Pletcher horse was pointed to for a while- did you think anybody with a well-meant horse would show up?

I think, all in all, the performance was about what you'd expect off a layoff. Was it dynamic? No. Did it make me think he was a solid pick or worthy of the low price he went off last week in Pool 1? No. Most importantly, do most Derby winners make themselves clear in February? No.

It's the first step on a three-race plan to get him to the big day and I think he did what the connections would have wanted.

NT

I agree, not sure what Pletcher thinks though. But some people will see a 95 and then he throws a 93 running a better race... and he's regressing. These numbers are getting bad enough to be comparable to QB ratings.

Rudeboyelvis · #66 02-18-2007, 08:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pgardn

I agree, not sure what Pletcher thinks though. But some people will see a 95 and then he throws a 93 running a better race... and he's regressing. These numbers are getting bad enough to be comparable to QB ratings.

I realize there are a ton of factors that go into the speed rating, but based solely on fractions, compare the race to the 50k allowance he ran in Oct as they were both a mile and 1/16th:

Allowance: 23.3 / 48 / 113.3 / 144.3 Beyer = 80

Sam F Davis: 23.4 / 48 / 112.2 / 144.2 Beyer = 95

One could make an arguement that the competition in KEE that day (Sam P. for one) was much classier than this bunch. Again, other factors considered, I'm having a tough time getting my arms around a 15 point improvement. I thought it would have been closer to 85-88.

NTamm1215 · #67 02-18-2007, 08:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

I realize there are a ton of factors that go into the speed rating, but based solely on fractions, compare the race to the 50k allowance he ran in Oct as they were both a mile and 1/16th:

Allowance: 23.3 / 48 / 113.3 / 144.3 Beyer = 80

Sam F Davis: 23.4 / 48 / 112.2 / 144.2 Beyer = 95

One could make an arguement that the competition in KEE that day (Sam P. for one) was much classier than this bunch. Again, other factors considered, I'm having a tough time getting my arms around a 15 point improvement. I thought it would have been closer to 85-88.

You make a very good point, one thing I can offer is that the Tampa racetrack has been particularly slow and yesterday's times in general were slow. I know very little about computing Beyer figures, but I'm certain that track variant is taken into consideration.

NT

Rudeboyelvis · #68 02-18-2007, 08:53 PM

There was a pretty stiff wind at Tampa yesterday too. It was out of the north, which caused a head wind on the back stretch and a tail wind, obviously, on the front. Would think that the direction would cancel any bias, but I don't pretend to have a clue how it's factored into the mix...

The Indomitable DrugS · #69 02-18-2007, 09:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Allowance: 23.3 / 48 / 113.3 / 144.3 Beyer = 80

Sam F Davis: 23.4 / 48 / 112.2 / 144.2 Beyer = 95

You are comparing time from two different tracks on two different days. That's a pointless excersize.

I had projected AGS would get a 90 Beyer for his effort yesterday---It's very rare when I'm 5 points off.

blackthroatedwind · #70 02-18-2007, 09:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

You are comparing time from two different tracks on two different days. That's a pointless excersize.

I had projected AGS would get a 90 Beyer for his effort yesterday---It's very rare when I'm 5 points off.

Usually it's about 12?

The Indomitable DrugS · #71 02-18-2007, 09:30 PM

more like 30

ArlJim78 · #72 02-18-2007, 09:35 PM

72 posts to disect a relatively uneventful running of the Sam F Davis.

Imagine when the real preps begin.

The Indomitable DrugS · #73 02-18-2007, 09:42 PM

To give a very brief and tremendously simple summary. There were three route races at Tampa yesterday.

Race #1: The 5/2 favorite won by 1.5 lenghts in 1:45.46 (he had run a 78 Beyer last time out)

Race #8: Autobahn Girl won by 3 lengths as the even money favorite in 1:38.39 for the About 1 mile distance. She ran an 85 Beyer and 89 Beyer in her last two starts.

Race #10: Any Given Saturday won by 2 3/4 lengths in 1:44.27.

Now, I'm not familar with projecting speed figures at Tampa Downs, so I just ignored race #8, because it was run at an oddball distance.

Races #1 and 10 were run at the same distance. Race 10 went exactly 12 points faster than Race #1. So, if you assume the winner of race #1 simply ran the exact same number he did last time out, as I did, that would mean Any Given Saturday would have run 12 points faster than his 78.

It's never easy to make these projections when you have only two route races to work with---but, perhaps Race #1's winner did improve 5 points. Any Given Saturday certainly went backwards off his last race---we've already discussed the many viable reasons why the 2nd place finisher to him could improve...and he certainly did.

blackthroatedwind · #74 02-18-2007, 10:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

To give a very brief and tremendously tedious summary.

To steal a line from you....

....fixed that for ya.

The Indomitable DrugS · #75 02-18-2007, 10:01 PM

As simple as I could possibly make it my friend.....

hockey2315 · #76 02-18-2007, 11:46 PM

From Drf:

"I thought it was a perfect first race back," said Pletcher.

"I didn't want this to be the peak race of his career, and I felt we accomplished everything we hoped for today. I wanted to get a good two-turn race under his belt and not start him back going a one-turn mile, which is one reason we brought him here.

"He hadn't run in a while, and any time you come to a new, deep, demanding surface you always worry if you'd done enough.

"I thought he ran a little green and pricked his ears waiting on horses after making the lead. Hopefully, he'll improve on that as we go along. The plan now is to bring him back here next month for the Tampa Bay Derby."