Derby futures

[Dunbar]

TheGreek has odds for all the top 20, and them some. But they also have this interesting abbreviated list:

1251 Lookin at Lucky +425
1252 Eskendereya +215
1253 Sidneys Candy +825
1254 American Lion +2050
1255 Dublin +2250
1256 Any Other Runner +145

That line has a 10% takeout. Neither Bookmaker nor 5Dimes has Derby futures up. (5Dimes DOES have snooker futures for the "World Championship", though. Thank heaven for that.)

Eskendereya was +285 at TheGreek before the weekend's races. (Actually +325 was available in a separate 'Eskendereya vs Field' bet.)

--Dunbar

[The Bid]

You really don't have a clue what you are watching if you even consider a bet on that horse.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by The Bid

You really don't have a clue what you are watching if you even consider a bet on that horse.

In a race that's going to be loaded with horses who have little chance of winning, I think Dublin at > 20-1 is far from a bad bet.

NT

[The Bid]

Then maybe you don't know what you are looking at either. I do not mean that to be nasty but he has zero shot to factor or hit the board. Absolutely none

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by The Bid

Then maybe you don't know what you are looking at either. I do not mean that to be nasty but he has zero shot to factor or hit the board. Absolutely none

Duly noted. I'll be eagerly awaiting your selections soon, I have no idea what I'm talking about nor what I'm looking at.

NT

[The Bid]

Bashing a G1 winner who cant run past a mile, whos never won past 7/8ths of a mile. Who has absolutely no punch in the stretch against mules. Save your money, see if you can find an English bookmaker that will let you bet him as last 4 to finish. That is where he will finish.

If you bet that horse you do not have any idea at all what you are watching. Not that I ever thought you had any idea, but that will pretty much seal the deal. The eternal moosh, betting a hopeless plug, going a mile and a quarter when he cant even run a mile against mediocre horses.

You and Rich Perloff on TVG maybe the two sharpest MF to ever breath.

[The Bid]

I could careless what you think. You don't know what you are talking about, nor what you are looking at.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

But Ntamm and FM both agree with me.

All I'm on record for with Dublin is that he didn't get the ideal setup in the Arkansas Derby. I also thought that Noble's Promise got a worse trip than he did in that race.

To say that a horse couldn't close in race that didn't come back does not necessarily imply that he gets it done with a better trip. All it tells you is that he's just not good enough to run against the grain. And that he, like many others, needs 'help' to win. I don't typically play horses like this, as I focus on those that have demonstrated that they can do something positive in a setup that goes against them.

Could he be there in the Derby? Maybe. It could turn out that he gets the absolutely perfect setup -- it could be a layered race and he just happens to make the last run.

In other words, I don't want this horse. I never thought much of him and betting him would be throwing money away. I'd rather bet Rule, who is a proven 'fighter' in a race that is sure to be full of speed than to roll the dice that Dublin is able to get that once in a lifetime setup. Then again, Vale of York got such a trip in the Juvenile, so anything is possible.

[Dublin]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I was actually pleased with Dublins run yesterday, because instead of getting 7-1 I thought I would get over 20-1, and according to this, I will.

Oh no...

[AeWingnut]

Originally Posted by Dublin

Oh no...