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#61
08-04-2009, 08:54 AM
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#62
08-04-2009, 08:59 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#63
08-04-2009, 09:17 AM
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Man, this race proves the old truism that more track records are set by track superintendents than by superstar horses.
When Victory Gallop won the Stephen Foster I think 3 or 4 horses broke the CD track record.
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#64
08-04-2009, 09:21 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#65
08-04-2009, 10:14 AM
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It rains like hell all the time at Saratoga without producing multiple track records in one race. C'mon, they can work the track to slow it down if they want to. It is not some push-button task, I grant you, but they just let that track get away from them yesterday, pure and simple.
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#66
08-04-2009, 10:29 AM
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#67
08-04-2009, 11:15 AM
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Here's the chart for the race with the original splits and your splits (where different). Clearly, the original splits are IMPOSSIBLE --- the 3rd qtr in particular. Your splits at least make sense.
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#68
08-04-2009, 11:23 AM
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Not only do my splits at least make sense ... but paces in 6.5f Saratoga sprints are NOTORIOUSLY fast.
For instance, take a look at the first 6.5 furlong sprint race run at Saratoga last year. http://www.drf.com/drfNCWeeklyHorseD...80724&raceNo=7 Knights Cross and Street Magician went head to head through a 21.52 opening quarter going 6.5 furlongs ... the ended up finishing 2nd beat one length and 4th beaten one and a half lengths. Next out King's Bishop winner Visionaire won the race in time of 1:17.15 over a track that was EXTREMELY dull compared to the one yesterday. About half of the races run at 6.5fs at Saratoga last year saw a 21 and change opening quarter.
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#69
08-04-2009, 11:24 AM
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Ah, Steve, there is no way in hell those internal fractions posted in the chart are correct.
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#70
08-04-2009, 11:27 AM
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The problem with the original fractions is not the 1st qtr but the 3rd one. No way the 3rd qtr of a dirt race is FASTER than the 1st or 2nd qtrs (assuming a reasonable pace).
To put those fractions out is laughable on the part of NYRA.
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#71
08-04-2009, 12:09 PM
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The posted first quarter and second quarter fractions are both 1.30 seconds slow. The posted third quarter fraction is correct. The 3rd quarter mile seems to fast to believe ... because they have the first two wrong by the same margin.
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#72
08-04-2009, 12:15 PM
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As long as the 3rd split is slower than first two AND doesn't have the two Captains running sub 22 seconds for it
 , I'm fine with it.
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#73
08-04-2009, 02:35 PM
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1. Is that the same as in other races? 2. Is that normal for most tracks? 3. If it's not normal, what is normal?
__________________
The real horses of the year (1986-2020) Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine
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#75
08-04-2009, 02:57 PM
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__________________
The real horses of the year (1986-2020) Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine
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#76
08-04-2009, 02:59 PM
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The fractions - especially the opening quarter - for 6.5f races at Saratoga have come back crazy fast the last several years. I'm sure run-up has something to do with it. My pace figures use the half mile fraction as a pace call for sprints. For a hypothetic that is tremendously simple to follow - lets say you have three dirt sprint races at Saratoga. One at 6fs - one at 6.5fs - and one at 7fs. Now lets say that the pace for all three is 45.00 for a half mile. At six furlongs - the 45.00 pacesetter would get a raw fig of 103 At 6.5 furlongs - the 45.00 pacesetter would get a raw fig of 94.75 At 7 furlongs - the 45.00 pacesetter would get a raw fig of 113.5 That means that paces at 6.5 furlongs are 8.25 points (or 0.30 seconds) faster than 6 furlong ones. And paces at 6.5 furlongs are 18.75 points (or 0.70 seconds) faster than 7 furlong ones.
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#77
08-04-2009, 03:19 PM
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#78
08-04-2009, 03:28 PM
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How many races are even run on the Saratoga main at 6.5 furlongs? And out of that number, how many of them are run as stakes, much less with Grade 1 winners in the lineup? It would be surprising if the track record wasnt smashed yesterday given this field.
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#79
08-04-2009, 03:35 PM
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#80
08-04-2009, 03:41 PM
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__________________
The real horses of the year (1986-2020) Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine
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