Win Willy

[Scurlogue Champ]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I beg to differ. I think he ran second by eight lengths because the rest of the field sucked....badly. Did you take a good look at their respective pps?

Old Fashioned is a nice horse. In some years he might even be a Derby contender. Not this year.

I agree, that was a s h i tbox field.

[philcski]

Old Fashioned still got a 98 Beyer for the Rebel.

Is he a nice horse? Absolutely. Is he distance challenged? Probably. Find me an Unbridled's Song out of a sprint mare who wants a mile and a quarter, especially one who's shown he likes to contend the pace no matter how fast it is. Eight Belles had a stout bottom side and she was the first Unbridled's Song to even make an impact in the Triple Crown.

Old Fashioned, distance challenged or not, would have had last year's Derby field over a barrel like Big Brown did but this year's crop is much, much stronger and deeper.

[Thunder Gulch]

I'm not disagreeing with anything you guys are saying, but does anyone actually believe that Jones was really pointing his horse for a big effort here? The evidence strongly suggests otherwise. That's why they call them prep races folks.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

I'm not disagreeing with anything you guys are saying, but does anyone actually believe that Jones was really pointing his horse for a big effort here? The evidence strongly suggests otherwise. That's why they call them prep races folks.

See, I don't know what this Jones guy is thinking with this horse. I don't see any thinking going on here with the human connections of this horse. He looked a little odd towards the end of the Remsen. Then, they twice act like the horse is running in the Met Mile. I've seen no effort at all made to get this horse to relax. They're engaging the leader going into the turn, and a fkn chimpanzee could probably have figured out that those leaders would have stopped on their own.

[ninetoone]

I'm willing to give OF another chance. A friend of mine & I were hoping before the race that a similar outcome would unfold so that maybe some of the bandwagon would bail.

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

That's exactly what I said at the beginning in saying Afleet Alex ran his worst race in the Rebel and now Old Fashioned has run his worst to date. Afleet Alex certainly beat better fields at 2, but Old Fashioned was never challenged and ran comparable figures. To say he's "distance challenged" at this point is pure speculation. He clearly hasn't been pushed at all with one work in a month, and ran second by 8 on class alone after chasing a fast pace.

i'll say it, i think hes distance challenged, judging from the style of the last two races. he runs rank and wants to be on the lead. afleet alex could relax and punch when the rider was ready. if anyone remembers his hopeful win, it was amazing. so was the preakness. this horse is in the "b" league compared to afleet alex, who probably deserved the triple crown if it were not for bad racing luck. and by the way people are defending him, he'll be over bet next out. bluntly, from what i've seen OF could not carry AA's jock strap.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I don't know, I can't toss the horse out yet, particularly with the underwhelming efforts of many others out there thus far.

Who has been so underwhelming?

[slotdirt]

Aside from I Want Revenge and Fresian Fire in the slop, what dirt prep has you saying "wow" like Big Brown last year (though I wasn't one saying wow then) or Barbaro in 2006, etc. I'm just not sold on anybody quite yet, and I'm not willing to toss Old Fashioned because of that. I will toss Musket Man, however.

[slotdirt]

And Win Willy, speaking of this thread.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by philcski

Eight Belles had a stout bottom side

Unless you're talking about her butt I would disagree. Her dam absolutely flopped every time they ran her a route distance - but she was a nice enough sprinter.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Aside from I Want Revenge and Fresian Fire in the slop, what dirt prep has you saying "wow" like Big Brown last year (though I wasn't one saying wow then) or Barbaro in 2006, etc. I'm just not sold on anybody quite yet, and I'm not willing to toss Old Fashioned because of that. I will toss Musket Man, however.

Quality Road's FOY wasn't a wow race? Considering there have been four or five major preps thus far, I'd say four wow races is pretty strong..

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Quality Road's FOY wasn't a wow race? Considering there have been four or five major preps thus far, I'd say four wow races is pretty strong..

Good point.
Quality Road's Foy was definetly a wow.
Tying it into some of the thread talk, he's a major roadblock to even the most optimistic and forgiving Old Fashioned fan. Quality Road can set a faster clear derby pace or if Old Fashioned were to use horse early and fight for the lead QR could press him in such a way that he never gets a breather. The FOY was extremely game. Straightaway speed track or not, QR and TOFP set hard fractions, and Quality Road ran on dusting a decent closing miler in Theregoesjojo.

[Travis Stone]

I try not to get too 'wowed' or influenced by now horses at this time of year because there is a new wow/now horse every weekend. On the flip side, one weekend a horse is a star, the next a bum.

Horses like Quality Road, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk, Friesan Fire... they're obviously talented and I'm excited to see how they (and others) progress as we move deeper into the year.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

I've seen no effort at all made to get this horse to relax. They're engaging the leader going into the turn,

Silver City is a 700K yearling who had run back to back triple digit Beyers in just career starts #3 and #4 going into these two prep race - he was the only competition for Old Fashioned on paper in both races ... and you don't let the only horse that can beat you lollygag on a totally uncontested lead.

Jones took Hard Spun back off of the pace in a prep at Oaklawn, also 2nd off the layoff, and would up finishing 4th with him beaten by the Jamie Sanders trained Tufelsburger.

I think a combo of Dominguez's fear of letting Silver City have it his way - and Jones remembering the egg on his face after Hard Spun was taken back in the Southwest - might have been a big reason why he was surprisingly sent leaving the gate. He also didn't look very comfy taking dirt in his face in a still picture of his lone work for this race.

If you look at Larry Jones three Derby males - they have a lot in commen.

- Debuts at Delaware Park

* 85 Beyer in closing victory for Old Fashioned

* 84 Beyer in wire-to-wire win for Hard Spun

* 81 Beyer in on-pace win for Friesan Fire


- Start to Start improvement

* Friesan Fire: 2nd with a 77 Beyer in a FG alw first off the layoff, won a trio of stakes with a 93, 96, and 104 in his next three respectively.

* Hard Spun: won the Lecomte over Izzy's Halo 1st back, beaten in the Southwest 2nd back, won the Spiral 3rd back, and strong on-pace 2nd in Derby 4th back.

* Old Fashioned: Improved figure from 93-to-98 from start 1-to-2 despite only having a single work in between starts.


His fillys like Proud Spell and Eight Belles also both debuted at Delaware - and got much better as 3yos - Eight Belles never did have a layoff though - and Proud Spell actually went backwards in her final Ky Oaks prep ... which was at Keeneland over polytrack.

It was probably pre-mature to say that Friesan Fire isn't a Derby contender even after he lost the alw race to Uno Mass and was a confirmed bum as a 2yo. He's a Jones horse.

It was probably pre-mature to say Eight Belles wasn't a Derby contender after her lovely 1-for-6 2-year-old season - where her top Beyer was 78 and she ran several horrific races. She's a Jones horse.

It was probably pre-mature to say Hard Spun wasn't a Derby contender just because his top 2yo Beyer was only 87 after three races - and he had just run 4th to Jamie Sanders in a prep. He's a Jones horse.

It's also pre-mature to write off Old Fashioned right now. He - at least - managed to run fast at Delaware as a 2yo...and in a route no less. Oh yeah, and he's a Jones horse.

Where are all the halfway decent Jones horses that go backwards??

Island Sand? She wasn't that much for Tony Dutrow .. transfer her to Jones and she almost wins the Fantasy and runs 2nd at a big price in the Ky Oaks - and takes the Grade 1 Acorn next out.

Where are any of them?

[ninetoone]

I thought the Hard Spun analogy was more appropriate also...for what it's worth.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

He's had two Derby starters - Hard Spun (2nd at 10/1) and Eight Belles (2nd at 13/1)

He's had two Oaks starters - Island Sand (2nd at 17/1) Proud Spell ($8.80)


Getting your first four starters in those two races to all finish in the exacta is pretty amazing.

It's why I had trouble totally bashing the despicably talentless Friesan Fire after his two weak races 1st and 2nd off the layoff.

It's why I almost certainly won't be betting Old Fashioned ... but want no part of bashing him. He's the only one of all these Jones horses that I've watched run as a 2yo and didn't say to myself "that horse stinks."

Anyone remember Wildcat Bettie B? Debuted at Prarie Meadows - was eased at Canturbury Park as a 2yo. Was beaten 15 lengths in the Martha Washington as a 3yo. Jones gets her to win the Miss Preakness, the Grade 1 Prioress, and the Grade 3 Victory Ride back-to-back-to-back through the middle of her 3yo season.

His horses are like that guy with the hockey mask in Friday the 13th. They just keep steadily coming forward.

[ninetoone]

In my mind, Hard Spun won that Derby at 10-1. Borel should have signed over half his check to Liquidity's rider (Flores?) immediately upon receipt. Many people questioned HS's ability to get a distance his entire career.

[Bobby Fischer]

If Silver City isn't in the Rebel, does Old Fashioned win on an easy lead?

Prepping twice against Silver City hasn't been easy for a speed horse. The pace they went for 6furlongs in each in each of the last two was pretty fast for each respective card. There is some chance that they went really fast for the first 5 or 6 furlongs relative to track weight.
The problem is that the K.Derby isn't necessarily going to be any easier of a pace scenario.
What can Old Fashioned do in those kind of situations where quality early speed wants to set fractions that are much too fast to maintain??
I don't know that there is a good answer. Could Old Fashioned have ignored Silver City and settled into a cruise 4 lengths back- just clear of the 2nd group Hamazing Destiny, Poltergeist and co. ? Would it have helped? When they come home the last 2.5 in 33+ it's hard to be optimistic about a stretchout and a step-up.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by ninetoone

In my mind, Hard Spun won that Derby at 10-1. Borel should have signed over half his check to Liquidity's rider (Flores?) immediately upon receipt.

It was a combo of - I believe Nakatani on Liquidity and Bridgmohan on Zanjero that both moved off the rail just in the nick of time for Borel to not lose any momentum.

Win Willy has to prove his race is true on a dry track. Not only does he have great wet track breeding ... but coming into the race - his trainer Mac Robertson was 16-for-52 (31% wins) $2.52 ROI lifetime with all routers on a wet dirt track. Now he's 17-for-53 with a $4.65 ROI lifetime.

If Win Willy doesn't prove he's close to the same horse on a fast dirt track - Mac Robertson might get the DrugS "wet track trainer" label that Cannon Shell covets.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

He's had two Derby starters - Hard Spun (2nd at 10/1) and Eight Belles (2nd at 13/1)

He's had two Oaks starters - Island Sand (2nd at 17/1) Proud Spell ($8.80)


Getting your first four starters in those two races to all finish in the exacta is pretty amazing.

It's why I had trouble totally bashing the despicably talentless Friesan Fire after his two weak races 1st and 2nd off the layoff.

It's why I almost certainly won't be betting Old Fashioned ... but want no part of bashing him. He's the only one of all these Jones horses that I've watched run as a 2yo and didn't say to myself "that horse stinks."

Anyone remember Wildcat Bettie B? Debuted at Prarie Meadows - was eased at Canturbury Park as a 2yo. Was beaten 15 lengths in the Martha Washington as a 3yo. Jones gets her to win the Miss Preakness, the Grade 1 Prioress, and the Grade 3 Victory Ride back-to-back-to-back through the middle of her 3yo season.

His horses are like that guy with the hockey mask in Friday the 13th. They just keep steadily coming forward.

The only thing I said about Proud Spell when I saw her in the Matron was "that's the smallest filly I've ever seen" and she'd have NO SHOT in the slop at Monmouth despite her obvious talent.

I was obviously wrong.


That's a hell of a Derby/Oaks record, though.