Derby futures

[Scav]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

So Munnings and Nite Light are crippled too? They might not be very good but the wraps going on Eskendereya I think are hardly a concern.

Are you basing the opinion that he's a cripple solely on the wraps?

NT

I might just be looking to bet against a horse at 9/5 in a 20 horse field.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

So Munnings and Nite Light are crippled too? They might not be very good but the wraps going on Eskendereya I think are hardly a concern.

Are you basing the opinion that he's a cripple solely on the wraps?

NT

No (despite Munnings running quite poorly), but it's certainly something that makes you pause before taking 2-1 in a 20 horse field, even on a horse that on paper towers over the rest.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Scav

I might just be looking to bet against a horse at 9/5 in a 20 horse field.

I would never argue with that I would just say that there has to be more sound rationale than assuming he's crippled.

My biggest concerns with Eskendereya are where he's going to be early in a race that will have a significantly faster pace than what he's recently seen and how frazzled John Velazquez is going to be.

The two best non-Calvin Borel rides in recent Derby memory to me were Desormeaux on Big Brown and that was mostly because the horse was just 1000x better than his competition and Prado on Barbaro, which was a similar situation. Both times they let their horse settle into a good stalking spot and took off when ready. Considering how tractable Eskendereya is I think it won't cause an issue. Basically, I'm saying that JV needs to not panic if he's a bit farther back than normal, that's likely going to happen. If he tries to ride the horse to stay with the pace early then I don't know if he can win, I can't be sure he's THAT much better than the rest of the crop.

NT

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

But Ntamm and FM both agree with me.

All I'm on record for with Dublin is that he didn't get the ideal setup in the Arkansas Derby. I also thought that Noble's Promise got a worse trip than he did in that race.

To say that a horse couldn't close in race that didn't come back does not necessarily imply that he gets it done with a better trip. All it tells you is that he's just not good enough to run against the grain. And that he, like many others, needs 'help' to win. I don't typically play horses like this, as I focus on those that have demonstrated that they can do something positive in a setup that goes against them.

Could he be there in the Derby? Maybe. It could turn out that he gets the absolutely perfect setup -- it could be a layered race and he just happens to make the last run.

In other words, I don't want this horse. I never thought much of him and betting him would be throwing money away. I'd rather bet Rule, who is a proven 'fighter' in a race that is sure to be full of speed than to roll the dice that Dublin is able to get that once in a lifetime setup. Then again, Vale of York got such a trip in the Juvenile, so anything is possible.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

My biggest concerns with Eskendereya are where he's going to be early in a race that will have a significantly faster pace than what he's recently seen and how frazzled John Velazquez is going to be.

The two best non-Calvin Borel rides in recent Derby memory to me were Desormeaux on Big Brown and that was mostly because the horse was just 1000x better than his competition and Prado on Barbaro, which was a similar situation. Both times they let their horse settle into a good stalking spot and took off when ready. Considering how tractable Eskendereya is I think it won't cause an issue. Basically, I'm saying that JV needs to not panic if he's a bit farther back than normal, that's likely going to happen. If he tries to ride the horse to stay with the pace early then I don't know if he can win, I can't be sure he's THAT much better than the rest of the crop.

It's not just about Velazquez. One of the nagging questions about Eskendereya, IMO, is what do you make of his Breeders' Cup effort (and I say that as someone who liked him that day off his Pilgrim). That was the only race where he did not get a favorable trip and causes me to have at least some doubts about how he may handle the Derby experience. Was the performance a result of him not caring for the synthetic racing surface (even though he was bred to handle it and had run well in his turf debut), or was it that he did not handle racing in traffic that well? If he's going to be mid-pack in the Derby and the BC Juvenile is indicative of how he may handle adversity, then the Derby's a wide-open affair. Of course, he may have matured since the BC to the extent that this is a non-issue; can any of us know for certain?

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

It's not just about Velazquez. One of the nagging questions about Eskendereya, IMO, is what do you make of his Breeders' Cup effort (and I say that as someone who liked him that day off his Pilgrim). That was the only race where he did not get a favorable trip and causes me to have at least some doubts about how he may handle the Derby experience. Was the performance a result of him not caring for the synthetic racing surface (even though he was bred to handle it and had run well in his turf debut), or was it that he did not handle racing in traffic that well? If he's going to be mid-pack in the Derby and the BC Juvenile is indicative of how he may handle adversity, then the Derby's a wide-open affair. Of course, he may have matured since the BC to the extent that this is a non-issue; can any of us know for certain?

I think his BC is of little concern for the Derby aside from some of the external factors you brought up.

He was away poorly after getting knocked a bit sideways at the start, was checked out of contention on the first turn, and had to deal with a race flow that really was not in his favor. However, comparing 2YO Eskendereya with two prior starts to the Eskendereya that will be favored on May 1 is unfair.

Are a poor break, traffic, and a less than ideal pace setup issues that he may have to deal with? Sure and these are the basis for why many people choose to play against the favorite. However, I brought up Barbaro and Big Brown because they both had somewhat similar running styles to him and were ridden as if they were the best horses in the group and they completely capitalized.

Andy brought up when he was on with Steve last Monday that Eskendereya's Pilgrim is a race that some ought to consider when they bring up that he may have to come from farther off the pace. He raced in and among horses for some period of time and proved to be more than up to the task when the question was asked. I'd be concerned if I felt that he may have some underlying distance issues but one thing I know I'm confident about is that the longer they ask him to go the better he's going to run. That being said, should things not work out on May 1 I hope that he is pointed directly at the Belmont because I think it's a race for which he's tailor made.

NT

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by The Bid

Theoretically they all have a shot it's a horserace.

Good enough.


--Dunbar

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Andy brought up when he was on with Steve last Monday that Eskendereya's Pilgrim is a race that some ought to consider when they bring up that he may have to come from farther off the pace. He raced in and among horses for some period of time and proved to be more than up to the task when the question was asked. I'd be concerned if I felt that he may have some underlying distance issues but one thing I know I'm confident about is that the longer they ask him to go the better he's going to run. That being said, should things not work out on May 1 I hope that he is pointed directly at the Belmont because I think it's a race for which he's tailor made.

The BC Juvenile may not portend how a more experienced Eskendereya will perform on May 1, but looking to the Pilgrim as a predictor is probably fraught with peril, unless you are looking for the following similarities: Dean's Kitten will flounder on dirt, and it will be a strung-out field with over 30 lengths from the winner to the last-place finisher. The Pilgrim was a 5-horse field. Comfortably running covered up in a short field with moderate fractions (23.4, 47.4, 1:12.4, 1:37.4) in a one-turn mile is a far cry from the likely Derby scenario.

If history is any guide, assuming soundness and a trainer calling the shots, if Eskendereya fails to win the Derby, I would be shocked if Pletcher did anything but pass the Preakness and point to the Belmont.

[jimmy the T]

where is the ignore button on here?

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

I'm not so sure Rule is an instant throwout. He's one of the few horses in the field who's never been out of the money and his speed figures are every bit as good as anyone except Esky,Sydney or Endorsement.
As for his running style he appears headstrong but I can't help thinking that if given an opportunity to rate behind horses he could. In a Derby field that certainly looks laced with front end speed types there will be a few of them who will have no alternative but to make an attempt from off the pace. At that point it comes down to talent and ability to get the distance.
He's had a good foundation and although he failed in his most recent test if he build on that by working up to the race he could be one to sneak in to the super.

I'm with you....it will probably be tough up front, no doubt, but his Florida Derby was really good and it was on dirt. If you like Sidney's Candy, they you are making an assumption that the pace won't cause a complete meltdown. Put the same pace scenario on Rule, look at his figures compared to Candy (or anyone except Esky), and you have one with a shot at 20-1 or better. Of all of the dirt preps this spring, he was the only one that ran fast fractions and had a fast final. Go back through his dirt routes and he was pressed through fast or at least honest fractions, yet still managed to finish well.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

So Munnings and Nite Light are crippled too? They might not be very good but the wraps going on Eskendereya I think are hardly a concern.

Are you basing the opinion that he's a cripple solely on the wraps?

NT

I've seen better knees on Estelle Getty(http://i103.photobucket.com/albums/m...l/DSC_4989.jpg if he is being shopped(which he was after FOY), your obvious out is that all of Pletchers horses wore them that day. Makes perfect sense. Empire Maker was held together with duct tape and almost got there in the Derby...I wouldn't want to see them on Derby raceday I can tell you that.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

I've seen better knees on Estelle Getty(http://i103.photobucket.com/albums/m...l/DSC_4989.jpg if he is being shopped(which he was after FOY), your obvious out is that all of Pletchers horses wore them that day. Makes perfect sense. Empire Maker was held together with duct tape and almost got there in the Derby...I wouldn't want to see them on Derby raceday I can tell you that.

Look, if you or anyone else wants to say that the wraps going on speaks to his fitness (or lack thereof) and use that as a reason to bet against him, that's fine. I've seen a lot of complete goats look terrific in the paddock. However, many, many people saw this horse in person and I've heard nary a mention of him having physical problems. I saw him in February and he looked fine, especially walking around in a paddock with a horse who did not look well at all (Buddy's Saint). Of course I'd probably have a better chance of diagnosing a deviated septom than an injured equine and I'm no ENT doctor.

NT

[Dunbar]

After several days without a line, TheGreek has put its Derby futures back up:

1201 Lookin At Lucky +425
1202 Nobles Promise +4050
1203 Rule +2550
1204 Sidneys Candy +825
1205 Eskendereya +205
1206 Mission Impazible +3050
1207 Ice Box +3050
1208 Endorsement +2550
1209 Conveyance +3550
1210 American Lion +2050
1211 Discreetly Mine +5250
1212 Deans Kitten +5250
1213 Awesome Act +1615
1214 Dublin +2250
1215 Interactif +3550
1216 Homeboykris +6050
1217 Jackson Bend +3050
1218 Backtalk +6050
1220 Make Music for Me +6050
1225 Super Saver +2050
1226 Stately Victor +2250
1227 Paddy Oprado +4050
1228 Line of David +4050

The "takeout" in this line is about 20%, and the line doesn't even include the horses that might get in from the Derby Trial or the filly.

5Dimes doesn't have odds up yet. Too busy taking action on who will win the Nathans Hotdog eating contest, I guess:

Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest - Coney Island, New York - ESPN
Joey Chestnut must compete for action
Sun 7/4 101 Nathan's winner eats over 72½ hot dogs +110
12:15PM 102 Nathan's winner eats under 72½ hot dogs -150


Bookmaker (CRIS) has Derby futures on about 100 horses, including such tempting propositions at Buddy's Saint at 11-1 and Lentenor at 60-1. For the horses that might actually run, Bookmaker's odds are uniformly worse than TheGreek's.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

5Dimes doesn't have odds up yet. Too busy taking action on who will win the Nathans Hotdog eating contest, I guess:

Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest - Coney Island, New York - ESPN
Joey Chestnut must compete for action
Sun 7/4 101 Nathan's winner eats over 72½ hot dogs +110
12:15PM 102 Nathan's winner eats under 72½ hot dogs -150

5Dimes now has Derby futures up, and its odds blow TheGreek out of the water:

Horse, TheGreek, 5Dimes
Lookin At Lucky 4.65 5
Nobles Promise 40.5
Rule 25.5 33
Sidneys Candy 8.45 9
Eskendereya 2.15 2.4
Mission Impazible 30.5 40
Ice Box 25.5 25
Endorsement 20.5 20
Conveyance 35.5 40
American Lion 22.5 25
Discreetly Mine 52.5 60
Deans Kitten 52.5 66
Awesome Act 16.15 16
Dublin 20.5 22
Interactif 35.5
Homeboykris 60.5
Jackson Bend 30.5
Backtalk 60.5
Make Music for Me 60.5
Super Saver 20.5 24
Stately Victor 22.5 27
Paddy Oprado 40.5
Line of David 40.5 45

When only one number is listed, it is from TheGreek. (5Dimes does not have odds on 7 of the listed horses.)

Taking the best odds on each horse, the "takeout" is 13%, but that doesn't include the possibility that the filly or Derby Trial winner might make the field.


--Dunbar

[randallscott35]

Endorsement looks like early wiseguy horse. He's down from the 30's and 40's a few weeks ago.

[robfla]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Endorsement looks like early wiseguy horse. He's down from the 30's and 40's a few weeks ago.

American Lion is 9:1 at the Wynn

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by robfla

American Lion is 9:1 at the Wynn

He won't be that in the pools and he is longer than Endorsement offshore as of this minute as well.

[jwkniska]

Originally Posted by robfla

American Lion is 9:1 at the Wynn

I've got booked in at 38-1.
You should get more than 9-1 on derby day.

[VOL JACK]

Excuse me for a dumb question.

But is there a way to bet with the Wynn over the phone or online.
Thanks.

[FATPIANO]

I have a big 20 to win on Eskendereya in the 1st futures at 22 to1.