I suck at handicapping contests

[philcski]

Went to the Keeneland DRF/NTRA qualifier on Saturday. Did terrible, again. I think I've played 10 of these now in this format ($2 WP, 15 races, 8 mandatory) and never really even threatened the money in any of them. Anybody with experience have any good suggestions on the best way to approach this (standard contest) format?

[TheSpyder]

My friend got to Vegas and he said it's about bringing in the long shots, hardly ever played chalk.

As to your post, I suck at handicapping too most all the time.

I know there's a few here that have done well on contests so they can add something more than I.

[GBBob]

Phil can out handicap me blindfolded and if I knew the winners in advance. For me, it was just getting hot at the right time.

[NTamm1215]

Bob's exactly right. One day it will click and you'll roll. For the longest time I was very annoyed because you almost feel like the winners of these things are just throwing a bunch of junk at the wall and hoping it sticks.

Keep on it and it'll happen.

NT

[eajinabi]

I really hate the $2 WP format. Lone Star has a very good one with Ex, Tris, Supers, and WPS bets as part of thier contest. I came second this year back in april.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by philcski

Went to the Keeneland DRF/NTRA qualifier on Saturday. Did terrible, again. I think I've played 10 of these now in this format ($2 WP, 15 races, 8 mandatory) and never really even threatened the money in any of them. Anybody with experience have any good suggestions on the best way to approach this (standard contest) format?

You need a first or last mentality. You simply can not grind it out. It is not about who you think will win the race but who has a chance at a price.. And when you hit a price you keep trying for more prices; because when a price hits you can be sure someone is on it.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by jms62

You need a first or last mentality. You simply can not grind it out. It is not about who you think will win the race but who has a chance at a price.. And when you hit a price you keep trying for more prices; because when a price hits you can be sure someone is on it.

I think this is very wrong. It is very simple in these types of contests.

In the races you have to bet, you find the winners or best price (sometimes a place bet), regardless of prices. What is the point of betting a 10/1 that can win only with a perfect trip when the 2/1 favorite would dust the 10/1 95 times out of 100.

A perfect example of this is when I was in the Trackside OTB contest. The Illinois Derby was a mandatory race, I think it was the year that Greely whatever horse won. Anyways, I liked Asmussen's horse to run real big but wasn't sure if he could beat the chalk. Chalk was 2/1, so a $6 return, I figured that if the chalk won, but Assmussen's horse got 2nd, that the place bet would pay $10. and if the chalk didn't win, the place would pay $20. I bet the horse to place, the chalk won and paid $5 something, but assmussen's horse got 2nd and paid like $11.

You take chances in the ones that you don't HAVE to bet. The ones you do, you just find the best horse or the one that has the best chance at winning.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by Scav

I think this is very wrong. It is very simple in these types of contests.

In the races you have to bet, you find the winners or best price (sometimes a place bet), regardless of prices. What is the point of betting a 10/1 that can win only with a perfect trip when the 2/1 favorite would dust the 10/1 95 times out of 100.

A perfect example of this is when I was in the Trackside OTB contest. The Illinois Derby was a mandatory race, I think it was the year that Greely whatever horse won. Anyways, I liked Asmussen's horse to run real big but wasn't sure if he could beat the chalk. Chalk was 2/1, so a $6 return, I figured that if the chalk won, but Assmussen's horse got 2nd, that the place bet would pay $10. and if the chalk didn't win, the place would pay $20. I bet the horse to place, the chalk won and paid $5 something, but assmussen's horse got 2nd and paid like $11.

You take chances in the ones that you don't HAVE to bet. The ones you do, you just find the best horse or the one that has the best chance at winning.

^^soon to be appearing along side BTW at Las Vegas Handicapping Seminar

[Scav]

Originally Posted by GPK

^^soon to be appearing along side BTW at Las Vegas Handicapping Seminar

I am way too green yet, maybe in 20 years when I have back to back back championships under my belt

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

ask stan bavlish how hard it is wins the big one then off the map next year..

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Scav

I am way too green yet, maybe in 20 years when I have back to back back championships under my belt

Are you planning on auditioning against Thunderdan for the Running Aces house handicapper spot?

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Scav

I think this is very wrong. It is very simple in these types of contests.

In the races you have to bet, you find the winners or best price (sometimes a place bet), regardless of prices. What is the point of betting a 10/1 that can win only with a perfect trip when the 2/1 favorite would dust the 10/1 95 times out of 100.

A perfect example of this is when I was in the Trackside OTB contest. The Illinois Derby was a mandatory race, I think it was the year that Greely whatever horse won. Anyways, I liked Asmussen's horse to run real big but wasn't sure if he could beat the chalk. Chalk was 2/1, so a $6 return, I figured that if the chalk won, but Assmussen's horse got 2nd, that the place bet would pay $10. and if the chalk didn't win, the place would pay $20. I bet the horse to place, the chalk won and paid $5 something, but assmussen's horse got 2nd and paid like $11.

You take chances in the ones that you don't HAVE to bet. The ones you do, you just find the best horse or the one that has the best chance at winning.

I have only played contests where every race is mandatory and it is WP format so I'm doing the exact same thing that you are doing... My 10-1 horses are often horses I am looking for a place.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by jms62

I have only played contests where every race is mandatory and it is WP format so I'm doing the exact same thing that you are doing... My 10-1 horses are often horses I am looking for a place.

My best finish was like 9th, and I should have won the damn thing but I was an impatient brat/bitch and after my 6th bet and I was 0 fer, I got all pissed, went up and played the next 6 races, then saw the next FIVE BETS win and I had the 6th bet already in on a 5/1 horse, where I possibly could have had the horse in the last possible race, which won at like 15/1 (GBBob had the horse)....Very salty

[Dr. Watson]

Originally Posted by philcski

Anybody with experience have any good suggestions on the best way to approach this (standard contest) format?

sure. intensity is a very big thing for standard contest format. I would recommend you buy a cd with a song that really fires you up. for me its mmmbop by hanson and that i can see u, ur brown skin shine-in' in the sun, i see ya walking real slow, smiling at everyone. song by don hendley.

u should play those songs over and over until you are almost bouncing off the wall right until you leave for the contest. even play them in your car on the ride if you can. finally I would focus on picking horses who are decent longshots breaking from either post position number one or the far outside post position. that way, if they brake from post 1, and the horse in post 2 veers out sharply at the start while the horse from the extreme outside post veers in sharply at the start, your horse is the only one left in the field who hasn't lost all chance of winning at the start. and that means and contest wins.

thats how I won my only contest! the 2 horse took a right hand turn coming out of the gate and the 10 took a left and BAM! my 20-1 shot starting on the rail was loose on a 3 length lead even though he didn't have much early speed. and after that

[GBBob]

Originally Posted by Dr. Watson

sure. intensity is a very big thing for standard contest format. I would recommend you buy a cd with a song that really fires you up. for me its mmmbop by hanson and that i can see u, ur brown skin shine-in' in the sun, i see ya walking real slow, smiling at everyone. song by don hendley.

u should play those songs over and over until you are almost bouncing off the wall right until you leave for the contest. even play them in your car on the ride if you can. finally I would focus on picking horses who are decent longshots breaking from either post position number one or the far outside post position. that way, if they brake from post 1, and the horse in post 2 veers out sharply at the start while the horse from the extreme outside post veers in sharply at the start, your horse is the only one left in the field who hasn't lost all chance of winning at the start. and that means and contest wins.

thats how I won my only contest! the 2 horse took a right hand turn coming out of the gate and the 10 took a left and BAM! my 20-1 shot starting on the rail was loose on a 3 length lead even though he didn't have much early speed. and after that

Are you really a Dr?

[GBBob]

Originally Posted by GBBob

Are you really a Dr?

No, but I play one on Derby Trail

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by GBBob

No, but I play one on Derby Trail

Did you just answer your own post?

[GBBob]

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

Did you just answer your own post?

I know

sorry

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by GBBob

No, but I play one on Derby Trail

[Dr. Watson]

Originally Posted by GBBob

Are you really a Dr?

sorry but i dont want to get into that here. the last time i posted on a message board a couple of smartasses kept on saying that the diploma mill who took care of me should be ashamed and one really big jerk kept saying my real job is a "jism mopper" people can be very jealous and petty.