5/31-6/1 (WO): Nassau S. (Gr. II); Plate Trial

[CSC]

We can speculate the why's all night long, it can be one of many or a combination of 2 or more or all factors why a horse would run badly. To me this was one just one failed prep. The mistake if there is one was missing the Preakness, we will just have to wait and see what Pletcher does and whether Stronach will listen.

[King Glorious]

It's easier for me to accept a dislike for a track when I see a good horse run below form but still at least put up an effort. I didn't see an effort out there from him. Real good horses can win on tracks they don't really like or at least they can show up and try. I could be way off here and I'm sure some of the usual suspects will chime in to tell me that I am, but I don't think it was the track.

Question to those that think he just didn't like the track. If Big Brown were in that race today and completely hated the track, do you think he would have finished off the board or do you think his talent advantage would have kept him in the picture? I can't see him off the board in that race today no matter what he thought of the track.

[hockey2315]

You are way off.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

You are way off.

At least you are hoping so because if it wasn't the track, you'd have to admit that you were wrong about him.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

At least you are hoping so because if it wasn't the track, you'd have to admit that you were wrong about him.

There are two choices, and being wrong or right about him is irrelevent, and they are that he is a closing sprinter type most effective up to a mile or he hated polytrack. I suppose you could also add that he had a bad day or got injured....but you get my drift. The problem with yesterday's race was that it asked him to do BOTH things for the first time and nobody learned anything definitive from the race.

He's clearly a very talented horse, his previous two races showed that, but that doesn't mean he doesn't have limitations. It would be nice to have a strong handle on what those limitations are. Running him in the Queen's Plate based on yesterday's race makes no sense.

[ArlJim78]

I think Big Brown, or any horse for that matter, could potentionally have run just as bad as Harlem Rocker did if he trained exclusively on dirt then raced on poly for the first time. This is not an avenue for success. If they really wanted to win the Queens Plate in my view they should have stabled him at Woodbine and had him working over the track for a good length of time prior to the trial. If I'm not mistaken he was working at Saratoga or Belmont.
Now they are forced to go back to dirt but I think he will need some time coming out of that race. It was a set back imo.

[the_fat_man]

I think there's enough evidence to be able to draw some conclusions about Harlem Rocker.

It's unfortunate that the headon replay on CALRACING only runs to midway through the backstretch and we're not able to see the stretch run but I think we can proceed nonetheless.

Now, I don't really pay much attention to what the connections have to say about a horse's preference for a particular course. It's really easy enough to see for myself whether a horse liked the course or not. For example, Proud Spell, at KEE, DID NOT like the poly. It's EVIDENT. Her footwork is off and her stride is terrible. I Lost My Choo and Equitable also didn't appreciate the footing in their last races at KEE, as well. Poor footwork, in both cases.

I didn't see poor footwork in the case of HR. He's on the correct lead during the different sections of the race. His footwork was significantly better than it was in the Withers. Moreover, he drafts nicely on the backstretch and makes a nice move to 3rd on the turn. He just doesn't finish with these horses.

He got worked over pretty good in the stretch of the Withers and also didn't finish as straight as one would want.

Time will tell about this horse but he really needs to SHOW me that he can run a little bit before I overestimate his ability or try to explain why he didn't perform.

[Scav]

Random thought here but I think there is a substainal different between Polytrack to Dirt and Cushion to Dirt theories.

More horses going from Cushion to dirt equal or exceed their performances compared to Poly to Dirt which I have seen it the complete opposite way....

[blackthroatedwind]

Interesting observations. Thanks. I defer to you because you understand this way better than I do and it is entirely possible that Harlem Rocker has distance limitations. It's also possible he peaked early and won't continue to improve.

I bet he runs in the Dwyer and the Haskell...and if he fails there he will show up in the King's Bishop. That's assuming he's OK physically.

[the_fat_man]

Doubtful that I understand it better than you do, as you do it for a living, and I'm a wannabe.

P.S. what was interesting about the day's events at WO, was that Tizway got it done at 18:1. Got figure, the plug taking to the poly. What a ride by Robert Landry, loose reins him till they turn for home. This race should be shown to all jockeys. What a way to get a horse to relax by jock and trainer.

[CSC]

From my point of view he ran so poorly, the race is hard to take at face value regardless of the surface. I say this in all respect to Not Bourbon, but here is a sprinter that won the same race yesterday. A horse with simular distance limitations questions. No offense but he is not as talented as Harlem Rocker from what I have seen of him. So unless he absolutely hated polytrack or there was something wrong with him, I'm willing to draw a line through yesterdays performance.