My early BCC morning line

[Holland Hacker]

Green Monkey. I thought Pletcher was just going to train him up to the Classic!

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I think you might even be being generous in terms of CQ. I'd say the chance of him making it in the 200 to 300-1 range. And winning it, zero chance.

You are probably right.

[cmorioles]

NoLuv,

Lava Man at 50 to 1? Come on, be serious. He is better than most of those you have rated above him on dirt, especially at a track like Monmouth.

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

NoLuv,

Lava Man at 50 to 1? Come on, be serious. He is better than most of those you have rated above him on dirt, especially at a track like Monmouth.

Everyone,

These are not MY odds. These are the odds posted at www.wsex.com, an offshore, sports-betting website, that takes some horse racing action and posts futures. You can actually bet these horses, at these odds, right now at the website above. My only point(s) regarding the odds I posted were that LAWYER RON was nice at 7-2 and GRASSHOPPER looked real nice at 25-1. I will add that they certainly do not focus on racing which is why there are some horses that are retired and such that have not been removed from the board as of yet. But along that same line of thinking, that would be why IMO there are overlays available.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Holland Hacker

Green Monkey. I thought Pletcher was just going to train him up to the Classic!

He is but he's training him up to the 2008 Classic.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

Everyone,

These are not MY odds. These are the odds posted at www.wsex.com, an offshore, sports-betting website, that takes some horse racing action and posts futures. You can actually bet these horses, at these odds, right now at the website above. My only point(s) regarding the odds I posted were that LAWYER RON was nice at 7-2 and GRASSHOPPER looked real nice at 25-1. I will add that they certainly do not focus on racing which is why there are some horses that are retired and such that have not been removed from the board as of yet. But along that same line of thinking, that would be why IMO there are overlays available.

Good description of wsex.com. Before the 2007 Ky Derby, their future odds were embarrassingly bad. But with the 2007 Derby futures, wsex was actually competitive with odds from Pinnacle, TheGreek, etc.

I'm not too excited by 7-2 on Lawyer Ron. Right off the bat you have to allow for the chance he will not make the race. I'd put that at 33%. Then the 7-2 becomes 67%*3.5= 2.3 to 1. With the 3 or 4 top 3-yr-olds heading to the race, I don't think an effective 2.3-1 is enough.

--Dunbar

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Good description of wsex.com. Before the 2007 Ky Derby, their future odds were embarrassingly bad. But with the 2007 Derby futures, wsex was actually competitive with odds from Pinnacle, TheGreek, etc.

I'm not too excited by 7-2 on Lawyer Ron. Right off the bat you have to allow for the chance he will not make the race. I'd put that at 33%. Then the 7-2 becomes 67%*3.5= 2.3 to 1. With the 3 or 4 top 3-yr-olds heading to the race, I don't think an effective 2.3-1 is enough.

--Dunbar

I'm thinking you are just a bit high on the odds of him not making the race. My guess is Pletcher is going to do his normal "train him up to the race" which would really make it difficult to believe he won' be there. While i know there is always that chance that something could go wrong in training, it seems like a most unlikely scenerio. With that in mind, if he does train up to the race, coming off of his last 2 wins, IMO he'd be somewhere between 7-5 and 9-5 no matter who he is running against. Even though the 3YO's are talented, see Bernardini on how those 3YO's perform in the Classic. Tiznow is the only 3YO to win the Classic since 2000. Now don't misunderstand, I won't be betting LR in the future book or on race day. But for those Pletcher lovers and those who love LR, 7-2 right now is awfully enticing. He did look pretty damn good last Saturday.

[Holland Hacker]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

He is but he's training him up to the 2008 Classic.

My Bad.

[Slewbopper]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I'm not too excited by 7-2 on Lawyer Ron. Right off the bat you have to allow for the chance he will not make the race. I'd put that at 33%. Then the 7-2 becomes 67%*3.5= 2.3 to 1. With the 3 or 4 top 3-yr-olds heading to the race, I don't think an effective 2.3-1 is enough.

--Dunbar

So my original morning line is somewhat accurate in your opinion. I accomplished my goal. I got people talking. I still like AGS at 5/1 or better with his dynamite win over the Monmouth surface. Too bad that I won't play the BC game and give them $25 to park and $50 to be in attendance without being allowed to see a horse running on the track. Give me the Haskell any day

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

I'm thinking you are just a bit high on the odds of him not making the race. My guess is Pletcher is going to do his normal "train him up to the race" which would really make it difficult to believe he won' be there. While i know there is always that chance that something could go wrong in training, it seems like a most unlikely scenerio. With that in mind, if he does train up to the race, coming off of his last 2 wins, IMO he'd be somewhere between 7-5 and 9-5 no matter who he is running against. Even though the 3YO's are talented, see Bernardini on how those 3YO's perform in the Classic. Tiznow is the only 3YO to win the Classic since 2000. Now don't misunderstand, I won't be betting LR in the future book or on race day. But for those Pletcher lovers and those who love LR, 7-2 right now is awfully enticing. He did look pretty damn good last Saturday.

True, training up to the Classic would reduce the chance of not making the race. But IMO, it also reduces the chance of winning the race. Even Pletcher has said that Lawyer Ron thrives on race activity.

Say there is just a 15% chance Lawyer Ron does NOT make the race. Then 7-2 becomes 3-1. And I would not like 3-1 on Lawyer Ron in the Classic if he has not run in 8 weeks. I actually think there is at least a 25% chance he won't make the race, even if Pletcher opts to train him up to the Classic.

I agree that Lawyer Ron has looked awesome in his last two. But Slewbopper is correct to point out AGS's outstanding run on the Monmouth track. And I'm not sure we've seen the best from Curlin yet. And how good is Grasshopper? Street Sense will get plenty of support on a big race day, too.

As far as no 3-yr-old winning since 2000, many of the best were retired before the Classic.

I will be surprised if Lawyer Ron goes off at lower than 5-2 on race day. I'd rather have 5-2 on raceday than 7-2 right now. (though, like you, I almost certainly won't bet either one.)

--Dunbar