Return to consos on P4/P5/P6

[PatCummings]

So if you follow me on Twitter, I've been in a huff about the late scratch of Point of Entry.

I singled POE in the pick five and pick six. Shug is rarely so overtly bullish about his horses, but he was about Point of Entry, all week. At one point, when asked about Johnny V being back on POE instead of going back to Wise Dan, Shug was almost boisterous - saying something like - "he's on the best horse" he said. I thought he was fairly bullish about Orb, but he was OVER THE MOON about POE.

I profited from the scratch when POE became Wise Dan as the post-time favorite. The Wise Dan bettors (and specifically, singlers) saw their payouts deflated when all the POE money went onto them.

Shug is well within his right to scratch up to the point the track says he can. As Mike Welsch reported on ATR's show Friday - he was contemplating scratching if the grass came up wet. Mike MacAdam from the Schenectady Gazette reported today that Shug said they would run if the rain stopped after the fourth race...but it didn't, and yet they kept holding off to make the call (waiting until after the 8th race to talk with (EDIT - Castellano) after riding Hungry Island).

For whatever reason, despite that, the pick six, pick five, and pick four ALL started with Point of Entry still in the race.

Once he was scratched, announced just after the Distaff Turf Mile ran (start of pick four), all that Point of Entry money floated over to Wise Dan. Now, if you had known this before the P5/6 started - what seemed like a two horse race (doubling your P6 outlay if you used both of them), pretty clearly became a one-horse race, giving players the opportunity to restructure tickets. Instead, Wise Dan plays probably like 1-5 instead of 3-5 or 4-5.

Surely, it will impact tickets in other ways too...

But if consolation payouts are given for pick threes...why not the p4/5/6? Does that approach maintain wagering integrity?

The argument that the situation is a non-issue because Wise Dan won as post-time favorite does not fly with me. Warning on an overly dramatic metaphor...what if I got shot, but the bullet missed all major organs/arteries, is it not an issue?

Wagering integrity dodged a bullet when Wise Dan won - but it's no way to conduct business, ducking the deadly shots while enduring minor "no big deal, no one really got hurt" blows.

A greater conversation should be had regarding consolation payouts in p4/5/6. As all the winners in the p4 and p5 were fairly short, no one will see this as much of a problem, but it is a problem that will rear its ugly head at some point in the future. With so many variables in play, wagering confidence is essential, and if you don't have confidence, it will eventually result in declining play, especially from more sophisticated players who dig into the exotic pools with fervor.