Triple Crown Winner - a possibility?

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Danzig

if anyone thinks the derby is a good indication of how these horses will do the rest of the year....let me bring up smarty jones' derby. a lot of people knocked the results, since only two horses ran a lick on that surface. this surface was in even worse shape.
you had one horse-ONE- who ran well. he inexplicably ran thirty-odd points better than his previous best, while everyone else was subpar. had that race been anything other than the derby, most of that field would have scratched. taking the results of that race as gospel would be a mistake imo. yes, horses can run well after maturing over the spring. but this particular win is more than that. the horse will have to win without the rest of the field clunking it up for me to think he's anything to watch for, bet on, next time out.

I know what you're saying, but didn't the place and show horses run speed figures that fit perfectly well with what they had done previously? In terms of BSFs, they are both mid-90s horses who ran in the mid-90s on Saturday.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I know what you're saying, but didn't the place and show horses run speed figures that fit perfectly well with what they had done previously? In terms of BSFs, they are both mid-90s horses who ran in the mid-90s on Saturday.

ok-if that's the case with 2-4, then i guess the other 15 were subpar? or most of them. i doubt atomic rain or flying private ran a subpar race. friesan fire was definitely not the same as he had been.

i just think the track had the most to do with what happened. different track, different results. like i said saturday just after the race, i wouldn't bet mine that bird with someone else's money next out.

[sdjcom]

they bought a gelding 2yo juvenile canadien champ on syn-track, took him to Sunland made him look bad then waited to get in derby knowing he would clean their clock there and in last two triple crown races, my opinion a set-up and would make a good novel. If MTB checks out clean on after race testing then it's a set-up. Horses don't run like that for know reason, the rest of the field ran the best they could on a horrible track. 1/19 horses handled the track. i don't believe it, and think some sh@# will come out of this.

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I know what you're saying, but didn't the place and show horses run speed figures that fit perfectly well with what they had done previously? In terms of BSFs, they are both mid-90s horses who ran in the mid-90s on Saturday.

Every single horse in the race needed to run a career high Beyer to beat Mine That Bird Saturday except for Dunkirk.

[slotdirt]

Am I the only cynical one still waiting to see the final test come back on the winner's blood sample?

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Danzig

if anyone thinks the derby is a good indication of how these horses will do the rest of the year....let me bring up smarty jones' derby. a lot of people knocked the results, since only two horses ran a lick on that surface. this surface was in even worse shape.
you had one horse-ONE- who ran well. he inexplicably ran thirty-odd points better than his previous best, while everyone else was subpar. had that race been anything other than the derby, most of that field would have scratched. taking the results of that race as gospel would be a mistake imo. yes, horses can run well after maturing over the spring. but this particular win is more than that. the horse will have to win without the rest of the field clunking it up for me to think he's anything to watch for, bet on, next time out.

Look out for T Pletch to steal this training angle next year-


1. Drive his horses around Kentucky for 21 hours
2. Open the trailer gate
3. Watch 'em run out of their skin

[Danzig]

i wouldn't be surprised if pletcher didn't even know how to back a trailer.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i wouldn't be surprised if pletcher didn't even know how to back a trailer.

Todd grew up with horses, I'm sure backing a trailer wouldn't be a problem.

[dylbert]

Before Kentucky Derby, 19 possible outcomes -- now, only Mine That Bird can possibly win Triple Crown. Odds are definitely against it happening this year, or any year.

I hope Mine That Bird is favorite in 12 days! I am Big Drama fan and his connections may enter him in Preakness. So, I could get more value for my opinion (if it is correct one).

And, several new "shooters" will definitely appear for Belmont Stakes. Twelve furlongs is big task for any 3-year old thoroughbred -- colt, filly, gelding or ridgling.

Finally, at least we know MTB is not a breeding play. So, if he is real deal, we will see him at age 4 and beyond. I see that as very positive story if it should unfold in that manner.