5/1 (CD): Kentucky Oaks (G1)

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by robfla

I said TOPS... you never know how all the people who only bet on big days are going to bet.

1:2 is a possibility, 2:5 is more likely.

I'm going to play a small Oaks/ Derby Double.

I know you are kidding, but I can't "empty my wallet" in even a one horse race at 1:2 or less.

I will probably bet just about every dollar I have left on me if she is 1-2 as they're halfway in the gate....and I'm not a fan of betting short chalk ever. But if I can turn, let's say, $100 into $150 on a horse that should absolutely win, I'll take it. Maybe that's stupid, and bordering on coming close the folks I laugh at when their bridge-jumping backfires in an attempt to make five cents on the dollar. Just can't see it any other way.

[blackthroatedwind]

I guess it was too much to ask for the Oaks card to be out before 3:30.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I guess it was too much to ask for the Oaks card to be out before 3:30.

No sh.it. Tomorrow's card is supposed to be out by 6:00 PM EDT! Amazing...Of course the way the CD meet has gone so far they're probably hustling stakes horses for the undercard.

NT

[mclem0822]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I guess it was too much to ask for the Oaks card to be out before 3:30.

Couldn't agree more Andy, doesn't make sense!

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

No sh.it. Tomorrow's card is supposed to be out by 6:00 PM EDT! Amazing...Of course the way the CD meet has gone so far they're probably hustling stakes horses for the undercard.

NT

Don't they usually get the Derby card, without the Derby, out much earlier?

I hope so, as I have to film shows early Thursday morning covering both days stakes, and I really don't feel like staying up all night looking at them.

At least I finished Belmont up through Friday.

[blackthroatedwind]

Got the desired result.....opened my mouth and the entries came up.

They made 3:30.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I guess it was too much to ask for the Oaks card to be out before 3:30.

I guess Im not the only dweeb sitting here hitting the refresh button 10x a minute.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I disagree. If you can beat the 2nd choice in the place and show spots you can make money with the trifecta. Should you bet RA - ALL - ALL? No, but if you use her with the right combination of price horses you can do well.

NT

With 8 horses in the race I don't see any money in it if RA wins.
A 1x 4 x All only costs 24 bucks. A 1 x All x All is 42 bucks. If RA wins I don't see the payoff > 100 bucks regardless of who finishes second.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Dude, if she's 1-2 I'm emptying my wallet.

Lots of people emptied thier wallets on Barbaro, War Pass, Big Brown... Their wallet stayed that way.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by jms62

With 8 horses in the race I don't see any money in it if RA wins.
A 1x 4 x All only costs 24 bucks. A 1 x All x All is 42 bucks. If RA wins I don't see the payoff > 100 bucks regardless of who finishes second.

Right...but if you find one horse that's a reasonable price and play her with a few horses and punch it a few times, you can do fine.

NT

[robfla]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Got the desired result.....opened my mouth and the entries came up.

They made 3:30.

I think Zenyatta will have her hands full with One Caroline and Unbridled Belle in a race without much pace

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by robfla

I think Zenyatta will have her hands full with One Caroline and Unbridled Belle in a race without much pace

Isnt it just a case of betting whether she is 100%, there is no pace scenario that beats her in anything close to her best.

[philcski]

They really put together a great card. The Alysheba is fascinating...

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by philcski

They really put together a great card. The Alysheba is fascinating...

I think Mambo in Seattle is gonna get back to his 3yo summer form.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

I think Mambo in Seattle is gonna get back to his 3yo summer form.

I like Bullsbay in that race. A LOT.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by philcski

I like Bullsbay in that race. A LOT.

Don't forget to key him for 7th in the septafecta.

He sucks.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Don't forget to key him for 7th in the septafecta.

He sucks.

Macho Again, I'm not taking 5/2 on a deep closer in a race with very little pace, even if he's been good to me in the past he really needs a setup. Ready Set is mediocre at best... beat a terrible group in the WV Derby in his lone decent performance, the Discovery was an OK number but he really just clunked up for 3rd. Maybe he could win off the layoff and the development from 3 to 4, but that's a lot to ask when he'll get overbet because of the connections. Mambo in Seattle will probably be overbet because he always is, and really had no excuse at the FG in his last dirt race, and just really hasn't been the same since the Travers. Cool Coal Man I used to like a lot and I've had enough of after that no-excuse debacle at AQU, he could bounce back but I'm not taking less than 5-1. Star Guitar moved from statebreds to graded stakes and got waxed- even if you draw a line through that because of the slop he still isn't fast enough. Shift in Power is 5-6 lengths too slow to win. Prom Shoes is a useful horse but will probably do what he always does running at the bottom of the superfecta, even though his last is better than it looked- maybe if he's a huge price I'll use him. Informed is just terrible.

That leaves Dr. Pleasure and Bullsbay. Dr. Pleasure, I liked both his races at GP, this is probably a good spot for him to break through as the likely pacesetter by default- Cool Coal Man probably won't go since it's pretty clear where he does his best running- and there's no other horse in here with a ton of early speed. Bullsbay, who knows what happened in the Donn? Clearly it wasn't physical because he wheeled back 2 weeks later and won. Draw a line through that and you have a legitimate contender at a good price, who does have tactical speed, is 2-2 at CD and 3-3 at the distance. I feel very comfortable standing with those two.

Tell me what I'm missing here.

[blackthroatedwind]

You are dismissing horses with form, whether it is as good as some might think or not, for a horse with no ability. Bullsbay sucks. Did you take a close look at his last race? I don't think so....or you wouldn't be picking him. The Hal's Hope? Come on. Bribon didn't show.....and the rest of the field was hopeless. Look who was 3rd. Would you like him here? I guess you're betting him in the Belmont 8th on Friday.

Like him or not, Mambo in Seattle has run on two synthetic tracks and two sloppy tracks since the Travers, so intimating that he hasn't had excuses in those races is wrong. Now, he might get a wet track on Friday, but otherwise he has a license to beat these. Cool Coal Man was not particularly good last time....but he may be pretty loose here. He's certainly a better horse than Bullsbay ( as, of course, is Mambo....at least on a dry track ). You think Macho Again is a deep closer? I don't. Now, he may move up in the wet, but he's also a better horse than Bullsbay. Ready Set does suck....he still may be better than Bullsbay. I have little interest in the others. Frankly....I don't have a great deal of interest in the race. I just think Bullsbay is a joke. But, hey, if he's 15:1, good luck. Don't let me talk you off of him.

[philcski]

The Hal's Hope was a much better race than you're giving it credit for. Bribon didn't show up, agreed, although that seems to be his MO in graded stakes. Would you like the pacesetter in that race in here? What about It's a Bird, who got buried?

[skippy3481]

As i was scanning down the from, i noticed that there is a pick 3 with the oaks, woodford, and derby. Is that something new this year? Or have i just missed it in years past? I've always taken a shot with the double, because if you can beat the top 2 favorites in either race, you have a shot to have a nice score.