Just when I thought this guy was being smart...

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by philcski

(1) I doubt there really was a $3mm offer for Win Willy
(2) Both have the same main drawing point, a ticket to the Derby/TC
(3) Both have similar OK, but unspectacular, pedigrees for stud purposes
(4) One ran a 113 beyer in his last prep and the other ran a 102, 11 points- 6 lengths (on a one-time effort for both) shouldn't inflate the price by more than 2X
(5) I'm not on the bandwagon of either of them so all prices in that range seem irrational

I'm not a big fan of I Want Revenge, and I agree with points 2 and 3 above. However, the general perception at this time is that IWR's a top 5 Derby contender, while Win Willy (who was 56-1 in his last start) is a marginal contender, at best.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Danzig

with the current market, i'd still say it's double digits for total value. wasn't street senses deal rumored to be around 20 million?
as for pedigree-big brown wasn't exactly royally bred-but for the most part, a ky derby horse can make a sire fashionable. stephen got even having a top three year old will only make him more appealing. elusive quality was still a very young sire when smarty won the derby-his fee shot to 100k after that.

I don't know if Street Sense and Stardom Bound are really fair horses to compare to since both won Eclipse Awards as 2yos so have that to fallback on. In the case of a horse that's best win is the Gotham or Rebel there is a lot more downside to its value if it never wins another race.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I don't know if Street Sense and Stardom Bound are really fair horses to compare to since both won Eclipse Awards as 2yos so have that to fallback on. In the case of a horse that's best win is the Gotham or Rebel there is a lot more downside to its value if it never wins another race.

i was just wondering what kind of money got thrown at midnight cry for part of curlin after his maiden win.
there's some serious money involved in this sport-and people willing to dig really deep for a shot at the derby. war emblem's win made people realize you could buy lightening in a bottle. trick is buying the right bottle. and there are people out there who can afford to buy up a lot of these hot young horses.
lose, they're out a couple million. win, they just hit the motherlode. and they can afford to lose that couple of million. it's like these horse are high priced lottery tickets.
also, keep in mind that hard spun was not a top 2 yo, and his deal was rumored to be just about as high as street senses. big brown wasn't a 2yo champ either, look at how his deal went. majestic warrior off one win-his stud fee was a done deal before the bcj.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Danzig

with the current market, i'd still say it's double digits for total value. wasn't street senses deal rumored to be around 20 million?as for pedigree-big brown wasn't exactly royally bred-but for the most part, a ky derby horse can make a sire fashionable. stephen got even having a top three year old will only make him more appealing. elusive quality was still a very young sire when smarty won the derby-his fee shot to 100k after that.

Street Sense- Apples and oranges. A winner of the BC Juvenile, Derby, and Travers versus the GOTHAM... won by such standouts as Cowtown Cat, Like Now, Survivalist, and Alysweep over the past few years.

Big Brown- the stud deal is completely made up dollars, again AFTER the Ky Derby win.

I actually liked Steven Got Even the horse and as a stud, and he's had some nice ones in the past, but his progeny don't really go for big money.

Originally Posted by Danzig

i was just wondering what kind of money got thrown at midnight cry for part of curlin after his maiden win.there's some serious money involved in this sport-and people willing to dig really deep for a shot at the derby. war emblem's win made people realize you could buy lightening in a bottle. trick is buying the right bottle. and there are people out there who can afford to buy up a lot of these hot young horses.
lose, they're out a couple million. win, they just hit the motherlode. and they can afford to lose that couple of million. it's like these horse are high priced lottery tickets.
also, keep in mind that hard spun was not a top 2 yo, and his deal was rumored to be just about as high as street senses. big brown wasn't a 2yo champ either, look at how his deal went. majestic warrior off one win-his stud fee was a done deal before the bcj.

$2.6MM.

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

well hopefully he got a good deal with Stardom Bound... I wonder how much she is worth..

I havent really followed her this year but isnt she still undefeated?

Not since her 1st race.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i was just wondering what kind of money got thrown at midnight cry for part of curlin after his maiden win.
there's some serious money involved in this sport-and people willing to dig really deep for a shot at the derby. war emblem's win made people realize you could buy lightening in a bottle. trick is buying the right bottle. and there are people out there who can afford to buy up a lot of these hot young horses.
lose, they're out a couple million. win, they just hit the motherlode. and they can afford to lose that couple of million. it's like these horse are high priced lottery tickets.
also, keep in mind that hard spun was not a top 2 yo, and his deal was rumored to be just about as high as street senses. big brown wasn't a 2yo champ either, look at how his deal went. majestic warrior off one win-his stud fee was a done deal before the bcj.

A nice chunk of Hard Spun's deal was tied up in an incentive if they won a G1 race before the end of the year which they did in the Kings Bishop.

Majestic Warrior won the G1 Hopeful, worth a lot more on a stallion resume than a Gotham or Rebel.

Which Big Brown deal are you talking about? When he sold for like $3-4 million when he had no guaranteed value? That is hardly Street Sense money.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by philcski

Street Sense- Apples and oranges. A winner of the BC Juvenile, Derby, and Travers versus the GOTHAM... won by such standouts as Cowtown Cat, Like Now, Survivalist, and Alysweep over the past few years.

Big Brown- the stud deal is completely made up dollars, again AFTER the Ky Derby win.

I actually liked Steven Got Even the horse and as a stud, and he's had some nice ones in the past, but his progeny don't really go for big money.



$2.6MM.

which is why i don't find it inconceivable that someone offered 3 mill for win willy.

ieah is throwing insane money around, this being their second purchase in what, a month? value is what you have when you know what someone is willing to pay. i'd think ieah, based on past experience, is willing to pay plenty.
no, at this point, you can't really say i want revenge is = to street sense. what i'm saying is they are paying this kind of money because they are hoping IWR will turn out close to or equal to street sense regarding a future stud fee.

[blackthroatedwind]

$20 Million got them Street Sense's tail.

I think $60 Million is probably more accurate.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

A nice chunk of Hard Spun's deal was tied up in an incentive if they won a G1 race before the end of the year which they did in the Kings Bishop.

Majestic Warrior won the G1 Hopeful, worth a lot more on a stallion resume than a Gotham or Rebel.

Which Big Brown deal are you talking about? When he sold for like $3-4 million when he had no guaranteed value? That is hardly Street Sense money.

when big brown won the preakness, it seemed every stud farm was calling to make a deal. had they done the deal then, ieah would have made out-they tried to hold out til the tc was won. i'm sure big brown still got one heck of a deal, his stud fee bears that out. farms want out of a horse within a couple of years. there's no doubt BB was huge, maybe not as big as smarty, maybe not even as big as street sense. but i'm sure it was still a big deal.
when you look at ieahs spending habits lately, i'm figuring they threw a huge amount this guys way-that's how you get a guy to cough up half. they threw in part of stardom bound to sweeten the pot-that tells me it's worth more than 4 mill.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

$20 Million got them Street Sense's tail.

I think $60 Million is probably more accurate.

which i think only bears out my argument even more. maybe it was hard spun who was rumored at 20 mill? the money being tossed at top prospects is insane. hell, ieah threw close to 6 million to buy a filly-she won't have near the residual value as a top colt.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Danzig

when big brown won the preakness, it seemed every stud farm was calling to make a deal. had they done the deal then, ieah would have made out-they tried to hold out til the tc was won. i'm sure big brown still got one heck of a deal, his stud fee bears that out. farms want out of a horse within a couple of years. there's no doubt BB was huge, maybe not as big as smarty, maybe not even as big as street sense. but i'm sure it was still a big deal.
when you look at ieahs spending habits lately, i'm figuring they threw a huge amount this guys way-that's how you get a guy to cough up half. they threw in part of stardom bound to sweeten the pot-that tells me it's worth more than 4 mill.

At that point Big Brown had won the Florida Derby, Kentucky Derby, and Preakness. How can you compare that to the value of a horse that has only won the Gotham or Rebel? Stud fees are no indications of the deal, only a small percentage of Big Brown was actually bought, IEAH is still holding onto most of the risk when he flops at stud.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

At that point Big Brown had won the Florida Derby, Kentucky Derby, and Preakness. How can you compare that to the value of a horse that has only won the Gotham or Rebel? Stud fees are no indications of the deal, only a small percentage of Big Brown was actually bought, IEAH is still holding onto most of the risk when he flops at stud.

i am not saying i think i want revenge will command a stud deal like street sense has. what i'm saying is that they are buying i want revenge in the hopes that he will win the derby and pay them back ten fold. i'd not comparing street senses total career to what IWR has done thus far. what i'm saying is that ieah paid handsomely as a gamble on his future

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by Danzig

when big brown won the preakness, it seemed every stud farm was calling to make a deal. had they done the deal then, ieah would have made out-they tried to hold out til the tc was won. i'm sure big brown still got one heck of a deal, his stud fee bears that out. farms want out of a horse within a couple of years. there's no doubt BB was huge, maybe not as big as smarty, maybe not even as big as street sense. but i'm sure it was still a big deal.
when you look at ieahs spending habits lately, i'm figuring they threw a huge amount this guys way-that's how you get a guy to cough up half. they threw in part of stardom bound to sweeten the pot-that tells me it's worth more than 4 mill.

I'm not sure quite what you are talking about in the first paragraph... because Big Brown's deal occured BEFORE the Preakness..

They only sold 10% of the horse... and they made out as that 10% supposedly made the horse worth 60 million dollars.

They were thinking this guy was gonna win the Triple Crown and they would all be set still having 90% of his breeding value.

Guess that didnt turn out how they were hoping!

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Danzig

which i think only bears out my argument even more. maybe it was hard spun who was rumored at 20 mill? the money being tossed at top prospects is insane. hell, ieah threw close to 6 million to buy a filly-she won't have near the residual value as a top colt.

Of course not, but if she never wins another race and Win Whilly or I Want Revenge never win a race she will have far more value then either of them cause she has already accomplished something. Part of what they were buying were what the horse had already accomplished. With Win Whilly or I Want Revenge you are almost solely buying what they could accomplish. That is why those horses wouldn't go for $20 million.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

I'm not sure quite what you are talking about in the first paragraph... because Big Brown's deal occured BEFORE the Preakness..

They only sold 10% of the horse... and they made out as that 10% supposedly made the horse worth 60 million dollars.

They were thinking this guy was gonna win the Triple Crown and they would all be set still having 90% of his breeding value.

Guess that didnt turn out how they were hoping!

i thought they kept three chimneys hanging longer than that. but apparently nothing i'm posting is making sense, so i'm calling it a day.

[parsixfarms]

Let's not forget that some of the silly figures for horses like Street Sense and Majestic Warrior came from the fact that they were stallion prospects, and their deals were done long before the recent "bubble bursting" on the stud market. As a son of Stephen Got Even, I think it's fair to say that I Want Revenge's value now is primarily as a race horse/Derby contender; any residual value is probably very marginal at this time (as opposed to a horse such as Quality Road or Dunkirk).

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i thought they kept three chimneys hanging longer than that. but apparently nothing i'm posting is making sense, so i'm calling it a day.

lol... nope the deal went down before the race was run... its all good Zig!

3 chimneys is the one who got lucky only buying 10%...

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Danzig

which is why i don't find it inconceivable that someone offered 3 mill for win willy.

ieah is throwing insane money around, this being their second purchase in what, a month? value is what you have when you know what someone is willing to pay. i'd think ieah, based on past experience, is willing to pay plenty.
no, at this point, you can't really say i want revenge is = to street sense. what i'm saying is they are paying this kind of money because they are hoping IWR will turn out close to or equal to street sense regarding a future stud fee.

I don't think the $3 mill number for Win Willy is inconceivable (even though I don't think it was real), however basing it on Curlin is difficult because (a) that was a much different economy and (b) despite only being a maiden win, everything about him screamed "superstar" and like him or not (I didn't for quite a long time) everybody thought the same. Win Willy may or may not be the real deal, the jury is still out.

Again, Street Sense is not a good baseline for I Want Revenge.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

Let's not forget that some of the silly figures for horses like Street Sense and Majestic Warrior came from the fact that they were stallion prospects, and their deals were done long before the recent "bubble bursting" on the stud market. As a son of Stephen Got Even, I think it's fair to say that I Want Revenge's value now is primarily as a race horse/Derby contender; any residual value is probably very marginal at this time (as opposed to a horse such as Quality Road or Dunkirk).

Let's also not forget that Street Sense and half of that crop went to Darley... so the numbers wont make sense because Darley doesnt really worry about what they spend..

Was that they year they spent like 4 bazzillion dollars at the sales too?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

Let's not forget that some of the silly figures for horses like Street Sense and Majestic Warrior came from the fact that they were stallion prospects, and their deals were done long before the recent "bubble bursting" on the stud market. As a son of Stephen Got Even, I think it's fair to say that I Want Revenge's value now is primarily as a race horse/Derby contender; any residual value is probably very marginal at this time (as opposed to a horse such as Quality Road or Dunkirk).

Isn't that what I said before?

I think you guys are getting fooled by the sticker price of a lot of these supposed "deals". Most of them creatively inflate the value to make them feel better in the public eye. I'd do the same if I were a pompous ass with no downside like Iavarone. It isn't his money on the line!