ny pick 4 today early + pic 3 payouts

[blackthroatedwind]

The only reason the parlay is slightly debatable is that perhaps the amount you wager on a horse could affect the odds. Your spread play plays no role in calculating parlays.

[blackthroatedwind]

By the way, this is directly relevent to yesterday, where a $750 win bet ( roughly the parlay of race 2 through 4 ) would have knocked the 5th winner's odds down 2 or more points.

Of course, in a relatively small pool like yesterday, where there was $15 on the winning combo, it is hardly surprising the payout was short the parlay.

[dagolfer33]

Just let me hit some P3s and P4s.....I'll take my chances on the payouts and not complain. Now if you want to get me pissed, we can talk about the several P4 dead heats and the f'ed up pool splitting thats involved there.

[gales0678]

the payout came back short on the early p4 , it came back less than 50% of the win parlay - all i wanted to do was point it out , i realize the pools are independent of each other , but , this was a big variance yesterday and all players s/b aware of this so they can bet accordingly

it appears as though there are 2 groups of bettors in ny , both have access to the same figures etc, etc , but it's like both of the groups are on different islands , and on one of the islands the bettors can only bet win and on the other they can only bet the pic's

[jpops757]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

By the way, this is directly relevent to yesterday, where a $750 win bet ( roughly the parlay of race 2 through 4 ) would have knocked the 5th winner's odds down 2 or more points.

Of course, in a relatively small pool like yesterday, where there was $15 on the winning combo, it is hardly surprising the payout was short the parlay.

The only way this would reflect a parlay is if you had a single in the next race.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by jpops757

The only way this would reflect a parlay is if you had a single in the next race.

That would be incorrect.

[mes5107]

Say you have a $2 Win ticket on a 5/2 horse. The bet pays $7.00. If you take your bet out of the pool entirely, that horse will still pay $7.00. If you increase your win bet to $10, the horse will still pay $7.00 for every $2 wagered. Your $2 (or $10) bet is really insignificant in the win pool.

Now, lets put that $2 into a pick 4 pool. Say the pool is $10,000 after takeout, and you have the lone winning ticket. Your ticket is worth $10,000 (excluding taxes). If one other person has the winning combination, your win drops to $5,000. 4 winning tickets is $2500 and so on. One extra ticket or one fewer ticket really change things.

The times when these win parlays are more $ than the pick 3 or pick 4 bets are just due to a few more people having the winning combination than there should be. In the win pool, the $2 payout is such a small percentage of the pool. The pick 3, 4, or 6 pools pay out a large percentage of the pool to a small number of people. In statistics, it's called variance.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by mes5107

Say you have a $2 Win ticket on a 5/2 horse. The bet pays $7.00. If you take your bet out of the pool entirely, that horse will still pay $7.00. If you increase your win bet to $10, the horse will still pay $7.00 for every $2 wagered. Your $2 (or $10) bet is really insignificant in the win pool.

Now, lets put that $2 into a pick 4 pool. Say the pool is $10,000 after takeout, and you have the lone winning ticket. Your ticket is worth $10,000 (excluding taxes). If one other person has the winning combination, your win drops to $5,000. 4 winning tickets is $2500 and so on. One extra ticket or one fewer ticket really change things.

The times when these win parlays are more $ than the pick 3 or pick 4 bets are just due to a few more people having the winning combination than there should be. In the win pool, the $2 payout is such a small percentage of the pool. The pick 3, 4, or 6 pools pay out a large percentage of the pool to a small number of people. In statistics, it's called variance.

mes i hear you - so if we take yesterda'ys 5th and before the race goes off we can see the p4 payouts , we notice that the payout with the #2 is less than the payout with the #3 , yet if we look on the boad the #3 is 4/1 and the #2 is 17/1 , shouldn't that discrepency right away alert us that the #2 is very live here because the payout appears to be short in realtion to the win odds? sohuldn't the public have saw this and hammered the #2 to win at 17/1?

[mes5107]

Again, only a few dollars worth of tickets are going to change that number a lot. Maybe somebody has a phone number that ends in 4-2-1-2 and they always bet it, and then 3 other people figure to throw that 2 in as a bomb in case the first three races hit. I would pay more attention to double pools or exactas if you're looking to gain some tote board information. What you're suggesting is that somebody knew something and bet a $4 pick 4 instead of a $1 pick 4. I don't think that's the case. There were only like $14 worth of winning tickets.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by mes5107

Again, only a few dollars worth of tickets are going to change that number a lot. Maybe somebody has a phone number that ends in 4-2-1-2 and they always bet it, and then 3 other people figure to throw that 2 in as a bomb in case the first three races hit. I would pay more attention to double pools or exactas if you're looking to gain some tote board information. What you're suggesting is that somebody knew something and bet a $4 pick 4 instead of a $1 pick 4. I don't think that's the case. There were only like $14 worth of winning tickets.

thx , i will watch thhe DD boards more closley