Declan's Moon...Turf on Thursday

[The Bid]

There are a lot of guys who are good trainers who hit at 10-15%, and a lot of guys who are clowns that hit at 20+%.

The difference between the real good guys and the mediocre guys is vetting. How how much owners are willing to spend for vetting has a lot to do with how these horses run. There are only so many ways to bring a horse into a race, and some guys are better at doing that than others, however I do not think a win % is a fair gauge for rating a trainer.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Bid

There are a lot of guys who are good trainers who hit at 10-15%, and a lot of guys who are clowns that hit at 20+%.

The difference between the real good guys and the mediocre guys is vetting. How how much owners are willing to spend for vetting has a lot to do with how these horses run. There are only so many ways to bring a horse into a race, and some guys are better at doing that than others, however I do not think a win % is a fair gauge for rating a trainer.

You are right that vetting has alot to with it. Whether we like it or not, vetting is a huge part of the business.

When I talk about a competent trainer, I am not simply talking about his training abilities. There is much more to it than that. They have to know how to tie verything together including diet, the vet, running their horses in the righ spots, etc.

I will agree that there have been some guys out there who were totally clueless that got their hands on some type of juice and started winning at a really high clip. Some of those illegal, undetectable drugs are really strong and they can move horses way up.

But you can make a good educated guess as to who those guys are.

Take a guy like Doug O'Neil. I have no first hand knowledge that he cheats except for his bicarbonate positives, etc. I can tell you that nobody thinks the guys has any idea what he's doing. His barn is completely disorganized. He hardly even watches his horses train. He just sits in his office. He worked for lousy trainers, so it's not like he learned from anyone that could have taught him much. So obviously he is a guy that everyone wonders about.

Now a guy like Jeff Mullins is a different story. He may take an edge if he can get it. I don't think anyone would argue with that. But he also is an excellent trainer and an excellent horseman. If everyone was forced to use nothing but oats and water, I think Mullins would still win at close to a 20% clip. I would bet that O'Neil's win percenatge would drop to below 10% if he only used oats and water.

This is pure speculation on my part. I'm just giving you my best guess.