Grade 1, $750,000 Whitney Handicap 8-5-6

[Pointg5]

Originally Posted by Bold Brooklynite

One point, please:

There's absolutely no correlation between the way a horse works out ... and the way he performs in a race.

None ... zero.

A horse who works fast is just as likely to lose as he is to win ... and a horse who works slow is just as likely to win as he is to lose.

Actual past performances aren't perfect either ... but they're a much better guide than workouts.

I wouldn't say ZERO correlation, it's not perfect, and there are horses that are "morning glories", but they do give an indication of how a horse is doing. Some stated that Barbaro had one of the best pre-Derby workouts they had ever seen, suggesting he was ready to go. Oracle knows a clocker and he has given out some good info about how a horse has worked and that has translated into on track performance...

Originally Posted by Pointg5

I wouldn't say ZERO correlation, it's not perfect, and there are horses that are "morning glories", but they do give an indication of how a horse is doing. Some stated that Barbaro had one of the best pre-Derby workouts they had ever seen, suggesting he was ready to go. Oracle knows a clocker and he has given out some good info about how a horse has worked and that has translated into on track performance...

All true ...

... but how many times have we seen horses come into a race off four straight bullet works ... then do absolutely nothing.

And what about trainers like McGaughey and Zito ... who always give their horses slow works? They usually win a few races off those works.

My point is not to get too excited by workouts ... sometimes they mean something ... and sometimes they don't. Someone like Oracle ... who's wired straight in ... can get much better info than the rest of us ... who only see numbers on a page.

[Pointg5]

Originally Posted by Bold Brooklynite

All true ...

... but how many times have we seen horses come into a race off four straight bullet works ... then do absolutely nothing.

And what about trainers like McGaughey and Zito ... who always give their horses slow works? They usually win a few races off those works.

My point is not to get too excited by workouts ... sometimes they mean something ... and sometimes they don't. Someone like Oracle ... who's wired straight in ... can get much better info than the rest of us ... who only see numbers on a page.

I do not disagree with any of that...

I am not really concerned about the time of a workout, I mostly look at how it compares to others at the distance that morning. Also, you have to take into account the trainer and their style...I think you could put Pletcher and Dutrow in that group, maybe not as slow, but you do not see bullet after bullet in the work patterns and they seem to win a few races...

It would be nice to be wired in about how the actual work was executed, but that's what is great about the weeks leading up to the KY Derby, the average person will never have that much information about the condition of a horse...

[slotdirt]

As an example, if we were to be concerned about workouts, I'm pretty certain nobody would be Oh So Awesome just about ever. I've never seen him be anything BUT the last of however many horses work at his particular distance. No Joke.

Speaking of Oh So Awesome...when will we see him again?

[jpops757]

early in the year I proclaimed FA pletchers 3rd string.He has passed his stablemates in my opinion. FA never impresses he just stalks the pace and then takes over. After his races and you look back, thats what should impress you. Invasor has looked very good but FA and LM are the targets. Classier horses arent there maybe a more fit horse but classier I doubt it. Evwn when he was getting beaten early last year he was still a classie animal.Pletcher has nothing but classy horses, Some dont perform that way butn they all have the "CLASS".

sigh....

long sigh........


25 posts later.....

and still all i know is that flower alley is pointed here.



this is the whitney thread,

or it tried to be anyway.

[Pointg5]

sigh...

longer sigh....

There's good conversation going on here, if you do not like it, do your own search about who's going in the Whitney, you are very good at copying and pasting articles, so this should not be a problem for you...We are not responsible for helping you find out who is running in a race almost 2 weeks away....

longest sigh of all....

Originally Posted by Pointg5

sigh...

longer sigh....

There's good conversation going on here, if you do not like it, do your own search about who's going in the Whitney, you are very good at copying and pasting articles, so this should not be a problem for you...We are not responsible for helping you find out who is running in a race almost 2 weeks away....

longest sigh of all....

...... LOL!

Originally Posted by Bold Brooklynite

...... LOL!

well thanks for the helping attitude, must be under 30, they are all so pleasant.

[Pointg5]

Originally Posted by Secretariat

well thanks for the helping attitude, must be under 30, they are all so pleasant.

Actually, I'll be 34 in December, maybe you'll send me a birthday and Christmas card...

[skippy3481]

I agree and disagree bold. Alot of times you can spot trends if you keep track of workout tabs. Some horses train horribly and run great some reverse if you can follow that horse for 4 or 5 races and pick up the trend it can give you insight into how the horse should run. Of course no one knows how the horse will run, but information is power.

[Danzig]

premium tap is supposed to be there, he beat sun king in the albert the great early this month. i'd imagine you could pencil in sun king as well....


also, there's no telling what direction a thread will take once you start it. no point stressing over it taking a left turn at albuquerque.

[my miss storm cat]

This just came up on DRF.....

(Oh yeah, go Invasor)


Commentator nominated to Whitney after all

After Commentator made a triumphant return to the races in a 6 1/2-furlong New York-bred stakes last month at Belmont Park, trainer Nick Zito said he wouldn't run the horse back in the Whitney, a race Commentator won last year.

When asked early this week about Commentator's plans, Zito said the horse is nominated to the Whitney.

"Never say never,'' Zito said.

Commentator, a New York-bred son of Distorted Humor, won the Mugatea Stakes on July 12, his first start since last September's Woodward, a race in which Commentator re-aggravated a shin injury. Following that race, Zito mentioned the Forego or the Woodward, both run on Sept. 2, as possible next targets.

Commentator will work over the weekend, after which Zito will sit down with owner Tracy Farmer and make a decision. The two are expected to run Sun King in the Whitney against Flower Alley and Invasor.

[Gander]

Wonder if Pletcher will throw a bunny in there for Flower Alley. It worked so well in the Jockey Club!

[Danzig]

aha...i figured sun king for it after his second to premium tap..commentator would be a welcome addition to the field. shaping up to be a good one!

Originally Posted by Gander

Wonder if Pletcher will throw a bunny in there for Flower Alley. It worked so well in the Jockey Club!

Tim he displaced that day, nothing can help a horse who can't breathe.

[Gander]

I seem to remember Flower Alley being up on the lead that day. More forwardly placed than his stablemate Bishop Court Hill.

Did that have something to do with his displacement? Or was Johnny V just not following instructions or strategy?

[slotdirt]

Flower Alley pressed the rabbit the whole way in the JCGC. That was just a weird race.

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by Secretariat

sigh....

long sigh........


25 posts later.....

and still all i know is that flower alley is pointed here.



this is the whitney thread,

or it tried to be anyway.

Here.....
http://www.nyra.com/snpp/THE%20WHITNEY.pdf

It belongs to Invasor, but i hope We Can Seek runs anyway.

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

Here.....
http://www.nyra.com/snpp/THE%20WHITNEY.pdf

It belongs to Invasor, but i hope We Can Seek runs anyway.

I think Invasor is heading west.