NYRA getting ducks in row..

[Kasept]

The New York Racing Association on Wednesday cleared two major hurdles in its bid to get out of bankruptcy and continue running Saratoga Race Course, Belmont Park, and Aqueduct.

A United States Bankruptcy Court approved NYRA’s disclosure statement, detailing its reorganization plan, which now goes to creditors for their approval.

Also, the Internal Revenue Service announced that it was lowering its claim against NYRA from $1.6-billion to no more than $25-million. The final settlement could be anywhere from $2-million to $15-million.

http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/news/printable.aspx

[sumitas]

Great that the organizations cited are being reasonable with the NYRA. It sure seems the NYRA should control the 3 tracks as well. There has always been room for negotiation about the casino part of the deal. And maybe the NYCOTB can be eliminated in the process and replaced with a sane business.

[theiman]

Nice projections done by NYRA(without an opinion by an accounting firm?).

$275 a VLT machine is realistic for 2009, then in 3 years, 2012 they are up to $503 per machine? Based on what? How many Racinos do that number?
Ballpark they say the slots will go up by 80% from 2009 to 2012?

Now the good part
If you take out the "projected" VLT revenue for each year NYRA's racing operations are as follows: All #'s rounded for simplicity.

2009 Net revenue $120M Total Expenses $164M a loss of Approx $44M

2010 Net revenue $124M Total Expenses $173M a loss of Approx $49M

2011 Net revenue $129M Total Expenses $177M a loss of Approx $48M

2012 Net revenue $130M Total Expenses $182M a loss of Approx $52M
The above Net revenue was determined by removing the VLT revenue listed on the disclosure statement projections that NYRA made(see page 45 of disclosure statement-or page 51 of the 69 page pdf attachment)
Perhaps this is a simplistic look and I would appreciate any others opinions on the above.

Financing--Well since they relinquish the right to any of the Building and Land there are no assets to secure financing for future loans, aka Another Albany Bailout.

The above were all made based on the opening of the VLT's on Jan 1st 2009, knowing NY construction projects, good luck.

Based on the above, Stronachs operations might be par for the course?

Good Luck to the taxpayers of NY State, I think they deserve better.

[fpsoxfan]

Originally Posted by theiman

Nice projections done by NYRA(without an opinion by an accounting firm?).

$275 a VLT machine is realistic for 2009, then in 3 years, 2012 they are up to $503 per machine? Based on what? How many Racinos do that number?
Ballpark they say the slots will go up by 80% from 2009 to 2012?

Now the good part
If you take out the "projected" VLT revenue for each year NYRA's racing operations are as follows: All #'s rounded for simplicity.

2009 Net revenue $120M Total Expenses $164M a loss of Approx $44M

2010 Net revenue $124M Total Expenses $173M a loss of Approx $49M

2011 Net revenue $129M Total Expenses $177M a loss of Approx $48M

2012 Net revenue $130M Total Expenses $182M a loss of Approx $52M
The above Net revenue was determined by removing the VLT revenue listed on the disclosure statement projections that NYRA made(see page 45 of disclosure statement-or page 51 of the 69 page pdf attachment)
Perhaps this is a simplistic look and I would appreciate any others opinions on the above.

Financing--Well since they relinquish the right to any of the Building and Land there are no assets to secure financing for future loans, aka Another Albany Bailout.

The above were all made based on the opening of the VLT's on Jan 1st 2009, knowing NY construction projects, good luck.

Based on the above, Stronachs operations might be par for the course?

Good Luck to the taxpayers of NY State, I think they deserve better.

Do you honestly believe the U.S. Bankruptcy Court would approve the NYRA proposal if the numbers were in fact even close to what you've drawn up in your numerical hypothesis?

[blackthroatedwind]

One could more easily suggest that you made up the above numbers and I for one would love to see them. However, assuming they are correct you are, of course, leaving out one major thing....and it goes hand in hand with your comments.

Those are the expected expenses based upon the " projected " slot revenues, which you conveniently took out, and would obviously be much lower, mostly because purses are based on slot revenues, should they not acheive the numbers you claim as projected and also claim are impossible.

[pmacdaddy]

I think creating reasonable proforma Financial Statements for an operation without VLT's would take a lot more than your quick math.

Without knowing all the underlying expense assumptions aassociated with VLT revenue, you can't just pull revenue out and expect it to mean anything.

Do your Net Loss #'s still include the tax/surcharge or whatever it is called they had projected paying the State and City for VLT revenue?

Where can you get those FS?

[theiman]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

One could more easily suggest that you made up the above numbers and I for one would love to see them. However, assuming they are correct you are, of course, leaving out one major thing....and it goes hand in hand with your comments.

Those are the expected expenses based upon the " projected " slot revenues, which you conveniently took out, and would obviously be much lower, mostly because purses are based on slot revenues, should they not acheive the numbers you claim as projected and also claim are impossible.

I made the #'s up and then I list the page of the disclosure form that they are on?
OK

I didnt conveniently leave anything out. I posted simple revenue and B/L #'s from racing operations, that were listed on the pages of the disclosure statement, I mentioned in my previous post. However, for argument sake, you can say that if slots dont perform to the numbers the purse expense will be less, but on a propotional basis, yet the loss will still be a staggering number.

I am tied up with a work project today and this weekend but when I get a chance I will try and post some projected racing numbers without the slots as a revenue source and also as a projection for the purse expense. They will be estimates.
Of course anyone else can post them too if they have the report and i will be glad to read them.

[MisterB]

Just have the Bruno act to contend with.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by theiman

Nice projections done by NYRA(without an opinion by an accounting firm?).

$275 a VLT machine is realistic for 2009, then in 3 years, 2012 they are up to $503 per machine? Based on what? How many Racinos do that number?
Ballpark they say the slots will go up by 80% from 2009 to 2012?

Now the good part
If you take out the "projected" VLT revenue for each year NYRA's racing operations are as follows: All #'s rounded for simplicity.

2009 Net revenue $120M Total Expenses $164M a loss of Approx $44M

2010 Net revenue $124M Total Expenses $173M a loss of Approx $49M

2011 Net revenue $129M Total Expenses $177M a loss of Approx $48M

2012 Net revenue $130M Total Expenses $182M a loss of Approx $52M
The above Net revenue was determined by removing the VLT revenue listed on the disclosure statement projections that NYRA made(see page 45 of disclosure statement-or page 51 of the 69 page pdf attachment)
Perhaps this is a simplistic look and I would appreciate any others opinions on the above.

Financing--Well since they relinquish the right to any of the Building and Land there are no assets to secure financing for future loans, aka Another Albany Bailout.

The above were all made based on the opening of the VLT's on Jan 1st 2009, knowing NY construction projects, good luck.

Based on the above, Stronachs operations might be par for the course?

Good Luck to the taxpayers of NY State, I think they deserve better.

NYRA is not in business to make money.. There is zero need or drive to do anything other then run racing in a reasonable manner and take care of all the cronies that support them.This model has lead to wide spread corruption and abuses in the past. I see no reason to believe the past is not a strong indication of the future.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by theiman

Good Luck to the taxpayers of NY State, I think they deserve better.

The taxpayers of NY deserve whatever they get for electing such a fine group of politicians

[ELA]

Originally Posted by theiman

Nice projections done by NYRA(without an opinion by an accounting firm?).

$275 a VLT machine is realistic for 2009, then in 3 years, 2012 they are up to $503 per machine? Based on what? How many Racinos do that number?
Ballpark they say the slots will go up by 80% from 2009 to 2012?

Now the good part
If you take out the "projected" VLT revenue for each year NYRA's racing operations are as follows: All #'s rounded for simplicity.

2009 Net revenue $120M Total Expenses $164M a loss of Approx $44M

2010 Net revenue $124M Total Expenses $173M a loss of Approx $49M

2011 Net revenue $129M Total Expenses $177M a loss of Approx $48M

2012 Net revenue $130M Total Expenses $182M a loss of Approx $52M
The above Net revenue was determined by removing the VLT revenue listed on the disclosure statement projections that NYRA made(see page 45 of disclosure statement-or page 51 of the 69 page pdf attachment)
Perhaps this is a simplistic look and I would appreciate any others opinions on the above.

Financing--Well since they relinquish the right to any of the Building and Land there are no assets to secure financing for future loans, aka Another Albany Bailout.

The above were all made based on the opening of the VLT's on Jan 1st 2009, knowing NY construction projects, good luck.

Based on the above, Stronachs operations might be par for the course?

Good Luck to the taxpayers of NY State, I think they deserve better.

Nonsensical discussion. To have this type of discussion, here, in this type of forum is ludicrous. You are right when you say "perhaps this is a simplistic look" -- it is, and one thing you certainly cannot cannot use in this type of discussion is simplicity. It's not mathematical and it's not linear. It's multi-dimensional.

Be that as it may, this is not a NYRA issue. For the critics, of course it's a NYRA issue. The link doesn't work now so I am not looking at the report, but I don't think one has to in order to see what your mindset is.

Anyway, I don't know what #'s are feasible so I am not sure I believe these #'s myself. I know I didn't believe Richard Bomze when he said the Mdn Specials would be going to $80k. As a matter of fact, besides not being true, I thought there was downside in saying it or believing it. Just like this discussion.

You cannot compare what might happen at Aqueduct (and eventually Belmont) to Monticello. Same thing with Gulfstream (turning out to be a disaster). Tell me about Yonkers though, I would be interested in seeing those #'s, but I think Aqueduct would have far stronger #'s than Yonkers.

If one would want to look at this situation effectively, the last thing you would do is try to be simplistic.

Eric

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ELA

If one would want to look at this situation effectively, the last thing you would do is try to be simplistic.

Eric

Unless of course you had an agenda.

[theiman]

Originally Posted by ELA

Nonsensical discussion. To have this type of discussion, here, in this type of forum is ludicrous. You are right when you say "perhaps this is a simplistic look" -- it is, and one thing you certainly cannot cannot use in this type of discussion is simplicity. It's not mathematical and it's not linear. It's multi-dimensional.

Be that as it may, this is not a NYRA issue. For the critics, of course it's a NYRA issue. The link doesn't work now so I am not looking at the report, but I don't think one has to in order to see what your mindset is.

Anyway, I don't know what #'s are feasible so I am not sure I believe these #'s myself. I know I didn't believe Richard Bomze when he said the Mdn Specials would be going to $80k. As a matter of fact, besides not being true, I thought there was downside in saying it or believing it. Just like this discussion.

You cannot compare what might happen at Aqueduct (and eventually Belmont) to Monticello. Same thing with Gulfstream (turning out to be a disaster). Tell me about Yonkers though, I would be interested in seeing those #'s, but I think Aqueduct would have far stronger #'s than Yonkers.

If one would want to look at this situation effectively, the last thing you would do is try to be simplistic.

Eric

If it isnt a NYRA issue than what is it? It is from NYRA's Disclosure Statement.
It is NYRA's projections, again with no CPA or GAAP rules applied.

I have no agenda, nor any financial gain from whomever controls NY racing. I grew up on it, I still watch it but instead of from NY I watch from California. I still have relatives in NY who are affected by the tax payers burden. I have the opionion that the current mangagement, the ones who were put in after the Big Brother watch, still cant run what might be the best racing.

Here are the 2008 Projections, these are prior to any slots coming in.

Gross Racing Revenue $272,730,000
Ancillary Property Sale $15,000,000
Gross revenue $287,730,000

Less:
Stakes and Purses $114,264,000
other Stat. payments $12,847,000
TOTAL NET REV $160,619,000


Expenses
Racing $9,682,000
Facilities $45,423,000
Security $11,742,000
Customer Service $9,255,000
Adv and Promo $11,403,000
Administration $50,940,000
TOTAL Oper Exp $138,445,000

Pension $4,100,000
Depec. $301,000
Pymnt under Lease $15,300,000
Interest $2,111,000
Total Non Op Exp $21,812,000

Total Expenses $160,257,000

Income before Tax $362,000

So NYRA projects to be in the black for 2008 and make $362K. Fine.

Except if they didnt have the one time gain of the sale of the property at Aqueduct they lose $14.7M from racing operations. This is the company that just emerges from bankruptcy and still gets its butt kicked?

Are purses too big?
Is $50M in Admin expenses too much?

As for the numbers at Yonkers, I dont know them off hand. I do know purses have steadily gone down since the casino opened about a year ago. I have a friend who races horses there and I have followed it abit. Also, Yonkers went from 12 races a night to 10 a night. Part of the problem at Yonkers is the handle barely gets over $1M for the trots on 10 races a night.

[ELA]

You know what? I guess it is that simple then and you have it all figured out. What's up next? Eliminating the deficit and balancing the budget for the United States?

Based upon your NYRA analysis here, I figure you should have country's problems solved by sometime on Sunday.

"Agenda" may not be the right word. However, being that you completely ignore all other aspects of this complex situation -- other than NYRA, and you've made your feelings very clear on that one single component -- I am sure you can understand why some might say you have an "agenda".

Eric