Ellis Pick 4 Takeout. Let's Participate

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Originally Posted by SentToStud

That's one way to go and to the extent that you feel you need to cover or go wide, it's very true. I'm surprised they're not running on Mondays and Tuesdays. They'd certainly show big numbers for the p-4 those days. I know Calder's p-4 pools are higher on Mondays. I'm getting into Ellis pretty strong these days. Personally, I think people who snub their noses at mid-level racing as inferior for wagering are way wrong.

the bottom line is making money, this is a bet you can do it.

There might come a day were you really very your play based on gimmick enticements, such as a 5% double pool once a day at this track, a 5% exacta pool on a race here, pick 4 play here for 4%, 50 cent 10% take pick 6 here. You might have to go where they offer you value.

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Ellis Park's wagering sale
By Jeremy Plonk
Special to ESPN.com
(Archive)
Updated: July 12, 2007, 2:21 PM ET
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Horse racing never has been without its share of hucksters. In fact, a picture of the 1937 Three Stooges episode "Playing The Ponies" with Moe, Larry and Curly each competing to sell their tipsheets at the track hangs above the very computer on which this column is written. Even back then, Moe's trying to get a quarter, while Larry and Curly offer their "insights" for a mere 15 cents.

What a bargain, eh?

Some 70 years later, along comes Ron Geary. But he's no huckster  he's a gambler  and he just happens to now own little-known Ellis Park in western Kentucky. Geary has taken his success in the business sector, along with his passion for playing the races daily, into racetrack management. And if early returns are any indication, Moe, Larry and Curly won't be recruiting Geary as a fourth member of Stooge ensemble anytime soon.

Geary brought a horseplayer's mentality to his rural racing oasis when he led the purchase of Ellis Park in July 2006 from Churchill Downs, Inc. While the corporate giant whittled away its expenses, it's easy to see how a minor to mid-level racetrack could get lost in a gigantic empire. But Geary's business savvy, and more importantly his first-hand knowledge of the needs of the betting public, could make this once little fish a major wave-maker in horse racing's bigger ponds.

Original ideas aren't exactly embraced in a tradition-stuck industry such as Thoroughbred racing. But Geary's lasting legacy on the game just may turn out to be two little words that have long been part of any competitive retail market, but virtually ignored by wagering providers: On Sale.

When Ellis Park opened its 2007 meeting July 4, Geary launched an aggressive promotion aimed directly at helping his fellow horseplaying brethren. He put the ever-popular pick four wager -- which challenges players to select the winning horse in four consecutive races -- on sale. But it wasn't just a token offer; this was an everything-must-go, hide-the-women-and-children kind of sale ... the kind typically complete with some guy screaming at you in a television commercial.

The pick four takeout (the track's cut of the wagering pool) was discounted to an unthinkable 4 percent.

That means 96 percent of every dollar bet would be returned to the betting public to be divided amongst winning tickets. At most tracks, consider the pick four takeout to be in the 22-28 percent range. Let's just say that track management teams around America probably re-upped on the Pepto-Bismol allotment in their annual budgets upon this announcement. Lowering takeout hardly has been any management's battle cry, outside of the New York Racing Association, which has championed the economics of such a scenario, but with little embrace from horsemen's groups, state legislators and the like.

Ellis Park's 4-percent takeout makes perfect sense when considering the impact of "sale" items in the retail world. Old Navy doesn't put T-Shirts on sale for $3 so that you come in and buy 17 of them. They want you to come for the $3 T-Shirt, and then wow you with their outstanding selection of regular-priced wares. In the end, the goal is to make you a loyal customer. Short-sighted establishments who care only about today's bottom line likely won't get caught in this groundswell.

But they should.

By discounting the pick four, Geary's genius is in the residual effect that it will have on the horseplaying public when it comes to Ellis Park racing. In order to handicap the pick four, you need to study not one, but four races. So if you've racked your brain over today's sixth, seventh, eighth and ninth races, it stands to reason that you are more likely to also dive into those individual race's wagering pools. As a horseplayer, if I love the 7 horse in today's final race after putting together my pick four ticket, I'd be remiss if I didn't put some "straight" (win) money on his nose as well. At that point, the track, state, horsemen, et al get a much larger portion of my win wager, typically 16-19 percent depending on the track. The sale hooks me in, and I become a regular-paying customer in little or no time.

The 2007 Ellis Park meeting is only a little more than one week old. But the early returns indicate that the pick-four discount is starting to take shape as a slow-to-conform betting public gets wind of the sale and evolves its long-standing wagering habits.

Total handle on the July 11 pick four totaled $36,417. Consider that total is more than twice the weekday average for opening week. More impressively, the July 11 pick four handle was up a sharp 49 percent (plus-$11,998) from what was bet into the pool on the opening Saturday of the meeting. Saturday wagering handles typically dwarf weekday handles at racetracks around the country. The word appears to be moving - and moving quickly.

Consumer demand will tell the end tale of whether or not putting wagers on sale will have a long shelf life in the horse racing industry. But in a copy-cat world, don't be surprised to see some of America's bigger-named racetracks follow suit.

One thing we already know: Ron Geary is no Stooge. And let this be a lesson to the designer suits in the management teams of racetracks everywhere. It takes a horseplayer to know a horseplayer.

Just post the link. Can't cut and paste the articles due to legal issues.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I don't think I've bet an Ellis race in years....but I couldn't pass taking a few stabs at their P4 with that takeout.

I can also say, that when I was knocked out in the first leg earlier in the week, I bet a few $10-to-$35 exacta combinations in two of the last three races on their card. Races that I never would have handicapped or bet had it not been for the low P4 takeout.

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Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I don't think I've bet an Ellis race in years....but I couldn't pass taking a few stabs at their P4 with that takeout.

I can also say, that when I was knocked out in the first leg earlier in the week, I bet a few $10-to-$35 exacta combinations in two of the last three races on their card. Races that I never would have handicapped or bet had it not been for the low P4 takeout.

me too, I found a turf horse I really liked and bet, though I dont think he could find the finish line with a lead pony.

you see the parlay today was 431 and the payoff for a buck was 2k!! not bad huh

[SlewsMyHero]

Word is beginning to get out among the players about this great deal. Last week, Ellis had to run it's first week of the meeting in direct competition with Churchill. The biggest pool last week was $24K+. This week with no competition from Churchill, the late pick 4 pools have been $36K on Wed., $37K on Thurs, and today, $49K. If this trend continues, the pools should be over $100K within a couple of weeks.

[whodey17]

Originally Posted by Suffolk Shippers

I have never been a fan of Ellis, either, but you have to admire their attempt.
The sport needs more attractions like this. I think more and more facilities are finding the slots are not the golden parachute it was once thought to be (thought they help). And, attractions that cater to the base of the game's audience are the best way to attract and turn around business.

Good use of the term "golden parachute."

[whodey17]

Pick 4 pools at Ellis

7/6 - 13,979
7/7 - 24,419
7/8 - 20,787
7/11 - 36,417
7/12 - 37,438
7/13 - 49,858

Now this is a nice looking trend. Ok someone help me out here. On 7/8 the pool was 20,787 and the payout was 79,795.80. What am I missing here?

[SlewsMyHero]

They have a $0.50 minimum wager, but post a $2 payout. There was one winning $0.50 ticket.

[whodey17]

Originally Posted by SlewsMyHero

They have a $0.50 minimum wager, but post a $2 payout. There was one winning $0.50 ticket.

Thank you Slews. Amazing....4% take-out and a 50 cent wager.

[unassailable08]

mostly b/c of the takeout but also b/c of all the Fair Mount Park shippers who are trained by Ralph Martinez as automatic as they come.

[Dunbar]

Here's another good article, this time by Cary Fotias, a member of the DRF/NTRA Players Panel, about how important it is to support the Ellis Park Pick 4:

http://www.ellisparkracing.com/media...OPS%20HERE.pdf

This part is right on the money:

"If players across the country don't get heavily involved in the Ellis Park Pick-4, they will confirm the industry notion that we are all a bunch of compulsive gamblers who couldn't care less about takeout rates. Wednesday's inaugural 4% Pick-4 (in which I invested $608) paid more than 8 times the win parlay! LET'S SEND IT IN and show them we definitely do care."

I agree with this, except that I'd replace "compulsive" with "hopelessly ignorant". Any bettor who doesn't see how vastly superior a 4% takeout is to a 20% takeout is indeed hopeless. Even if you hate the Ellis track, hate Ellis riders, hate the Ellis horses, you should be playing this Pick-4 to send the right message of "If you lower the take, they will come".

--Dunbar