Why do I like AGS so much?

[whodey17]

If you are beyer person then you can see a pattern in AGS beyers - 80-100-95-102-92. If this pattern holds true, then AGS should run a beyer in the 100's on Derby day. He has one start at CD and finsihed 2nd to Tiz Wonderful beaten 1/2 length. The things below are all good signs as well (except for the RAN)

Pedigree
Sire Distorted Humor
Dosage Index 2.67
Center of Distribution 0.73
Raise a Native in male line Yes
Highest Dosage points in "Classic" wing Yes

2-year-old factors
Experimental Free Handicap 119
Dual Qualifier Yes
Raced as a 2-year-old Yes
Won as a 2-year-old Yes
Raced a mile or more as a 2-year-old Yes
Won at a mile or more as a 2-year-old Yes
Three to seven races as a 2-year-old Yes

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by whodey17

If you are beyer person then you can see a pattern in AGS beyers - 80-100-95-102-92. If this pattern holds true, then AGS should run a beyer in the 100's on Derby day. He has one start at CD and finsihed 2nd to Tiz Wonderful beaten 1/2 length. The things below are all good signs as well (except for the RAN)

Pedigree
Sire Distorted Humor
Dosage Index 2.67
Center of Distribution 0.73
Raise a Native in male line Yes
Highest Dosage points in "Classic" wing Yes

2-year-old factors
Experimental Free Handicap 119
Dual Qualifier Yes
Raced as a 2-year-old Yes
Won as a 2-year-old Yes
Raced a mile or more as a 2-year-old Yes
Won at a mile or more as a 2-year-old Yes
Three to seven races as a 2-year-old Yes

AGS doesn't have RAN in his dam's sire line. It's actually considered a very GOOD thing to have RAN in the sire line.

[whodey17]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

AGS doesn't have RAN in his dam's sire line. It's actually considered a very GOOD thing to have RAN in the sire line.

You are so correct. Thanks for reminding me.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by whodey17

You are so correct. Thanks for reminding me.

I love this horse's chances... I like Scat Daddy more (more sentimental than anything ), but I'm nervous about Scat Daddy having the RAN curse.

[whodey17]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

I love this horse's chances... I like Scat Daddy more (more sentimental than anything ), but I'm nervous about Scat Daddy having the RAN curse.

I would be nervous betting a horse who doesnt have a beyer in the 100's. He has improved his beyers in each race in 2007.....93-95-98. I personally dont like him in this spot, however I do like the horse.

Pedigree
Sire Johannesburg
Dosage Index 2.47
Center of Distribution 0.81
Raise a Native in male line Yes
Highest Dosage points in "Classic" wing Yes

2-year-old factors
Experimental Free Handicap 123
Dual Qualifier Yes
Raced as a 2-year-old Yes
Won as a 2-year-old Yes
Raced a mile or more as a 2-year-old Yes
Won at a mile or more as a 2-year-old Yes
Three to seven races as a 2-year-old Yes
Stakes win as a 2-year-old Yes

[XIIPointStables]

I'll jump in Packer and say I like him as well. And like a few people in this thread, I like he and Street Sense best of all Saturday.

He's a little bit of a hanger, but he did fight back on SS in the TBD.

I like that he hit 100 in the Beyer Scale as a Two Year Old.
I like that he got his bounce race out of the way in the Wood.
I like that he's bred to run all day.
I like he took a more traditional route to the Derby. Not trying to buck 100 trends.
I like Pletcher. I love the switch to Gomez.

I don't like the hanger factor. I don't like that he has not show an "explosive" stretch drive since last year but I think he might be sitting on a big one.

All that being said, if he's the "wise guy" horse as has been mentioned elsewhere and he's 7-1 or something like that, I'll have to hit the re-evaluate button.

[philcski]

His race in the Wood wasn't exactly a "clunker". He was 4 wide after breaking alertly on the clubhouse turn (tough to do in a 6 horse field, even with the short run) and 3 wide on the 2nd turn. He tried the winner at the top of the stretch, and when he couldn't get by and got passed by Sightseeing JV shut him down, so the margin of loss was a little higher than it should have been.
My concern with the Wood was the come-home time was less than stellar.

He has a very good chance to hit the board IMO.