Whos 2nd-4th Derby Lock??

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Scav

Hell Quay in all three spots is $270 with going 10x9x1 and moving the 1 into three spots. a great play in my opinion. Really depends on how you structure it but I also think Zanjero has a shot at the board....want to see who is going to ride though

That's how I play the Derby every year, and it works quite well. Find a horse (or two) you are most comfortable will hit the board, and key them with 8 others (8x7x1 * 3 bets = $168 for a buck.)

Last year I couldn't decide between Barbaro and Sweetnorthernsaint so I double keyed them in exactas and trifectas, and caught for $8k.

The year before, I keyed AA but didn't have Giacomo (who did?!?)

2004, I keyed Smarty but didn't have Imperialism (but it didn't matter because of the future bet.)

2003, I keyed Peace Rules and hit (although the triple was pretty weak.)

2002, Perfect Drift (but no War Emblem, loss).

So in the last 5 years that works out to a pretty nice payoff, even though I've been 5-5 in selecting a horse to hit the board I hit twice (which I guess that's about the % you would expect.)

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

And how about one of brianwspencer's favorite horses... Storm in May. Worth a shot... I think he's been off the board in maybe one start.

True true. I know he's not a threat to win it, but I like his style as a *possible* super filler at boxcar odds.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Why not, Scav?

1) Mike Smith
2) Mike Smith
3) SLOW
4) no
5) Mike Smith

Squirrel finds an acorn once a winter

Also, no way the pace is anything near when Giacomo wins. I for one love the fact that he is in the race because he has no shot, and will take stupid money because of Giacomo and pretty boy

[tycharles01]

Dont be talking them out of there Tiago,Curlin,Great Hunter bets

All it does is make SS,CQ,AGS odds go higher and higher

[Scav]

Originally Posted by philcski

That's how I play the Derby every year, and it works quite well. Find a horse (or two) you are most comfortable will hit the board, and key them with 8 others (8x7x1 * 3 bets = $168 for a buck.)

Last year I couldn't decide between Barbaro and Sweetnorthernsaint so I double keyed them in exactas and trifectas, and caught for $8k.

The year before, I keyed AA but didn't have Giacomo (who did?!?)

2004, I keyed Smarty but didn't have Imperialism (but it didn't matter because of the future bet.)

2003, I keyed Peace Rules and hit (although the triple was pretty weak.)

2002, Perfect Drift (but no War Emblem, loss).

So in the last 5 years that works out to a pretty nice payoff, even though I've been 5-5 in selecting a horse to hit the board I hit twice (which I guess that's about the % you would expect.)

Yeah, I am all over it this year, I just freed up another $300 for this wager alone. SO just for the Derby I am doing

$10 exacta box with 5 horses
$100 WP on CQ, doesn't matter of post
$1 tri with CQ in all three spots with 10 horses in each of the legs

SO I am already in the hole $670

[whodey17]

Originally Posted by philcski

That's how I play the Derby every year, and it works quite well. Find a horse (or two) you are most comfortable will hit the board, and key them with 8 others (8x7x1 * 3 bets = $168 for a buck.)

Last year I couldn't decide between Barbaro and Sweetnorthernsaint so I double keyed them in exactas and trifectas, and caught for $8k.

The year before, I keyed AA but didn't have Giacomo (who did?!?)

2004, I keyed Smarty but didn't have Imperialism (but it didn't matter because of the future bet.)

2003, I keyed Peace Rules and hit (although the triple was pretty weak.)

2002, Perfect Drift (but no War Emblem, loss).

So in the last 5 years that works out to a pretty nice payoff, even though I've been 5-5 in selecting a horse to hit the board I hit twice (which I guess that's about the % you would expect.)

I like your method here. Thanks for the info.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Scav

1) Mike Smith
2) Mike Smith
3) SLOW
4) no
5) Mike Smith

Squirrel finds an acorn once a winter

Also, no way the pace is anything near when Giacomo wins. I for one love the fact that he is in the race because he has no shot, and will take stupid money because of Giacomo and pretty boy

I thought the same thing, but after looking at this horse, I think he's probably a bit more talented than Giacomo. I actually like him better than CQ at this point... I just can't see CQ winning the derby off an 8 week layoff. If he wins it, it'll be bad news bears in the future.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

I thought the same thing, but after looking at this horse, I think he's probably a bit more talented than Giacomo. I actually like him better than CQ at this point... I just can't see CQ winning the derby off an 8 week layoff. If he wins it, it'll be bad news bears in the future.

If Pletcher ISN'T dodging anything (anyone really believe that?), then CQ is a far superior animal to Tiago. Though with all of the questions....I'm not really sure.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Scav

1) Mike Smith
2) Mike Smith
3) SLOW
4) no
5) Mike Smith

Squirrel finds an acorn once a winter

Also, no way the pace is anything near when Giacomo wins. I for one love the fact that he is in the race because he has no shot, and will take stupid money because of Giacomo and pretty boy

He's a ****ing faster version of Giacomo, so you tell me why he won't keep closing when others are quitting and get a piece.

Mike Smith sucked in New York, but he's capable of a great ride every once in a while, and this is his kind of horse.

Unless they go :24 and :49, he'll crack the super.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

I thought the same thing, but after looking at this horse, I think he's probably a bit more talented than Giacomo. I actually like him better than CQ at this point... I just can't see CQ winning the derby off an 8 week layoff. If he wins it, it'll be bad news bears in the future.

Bad news is fine. I was telling GPK tonight that his turn of foot on the dirt is Afleet Alex like. If he is healthy (no wraps whatsoever unlike Bandini last year) I am all over him and not getting talked out of it

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Scav

Yeah, I am all over it this year, I just freed up another $300 for this wager alone. SO just for the Derby I am doing

$10 exacta box with 5 horses
$100 WP on CQ, doesn't matter of post
$1 tri with CQ in all three spots with 10 horses in each of the legs

SO I am already in the hole $670

I would say CQ is a very good choice for a wager like this if I have any faith in him off the layoff.
If he hits the board and just one less than expected horse does as well, you are looking at a $3,000 tri, minimum... that's the beauty of the Derby.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

If Pletcher ISN'T dodging anything (anyone really believe that?), then CQ is a far superior animal to Tiago. Though with all of the questions....I'm not really sure.

I'm concerned about there being an underlying issue we don't know about. Circular Quay is definitely a talented colt, but I'm just concerned about the long layoff and fact that the colt is 800 lbs soaking wet. How is a colt like that going to withstand the bumping and grinding (no pun intended) of the Derby?

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Scav

1) Mike Smith
2) Mike Smith
3) SLOW
4) no
5) Mike Smith

Squirrel finds an acorn once a winter

Also, no way the pace is anything near when Giacomo wins. I for one love the fact that he is in the race because he has no shot, and will take stupid money because of Giacomo and pretty boy

Remember Smith's ride on Flashy Bull last year? He may be the only horse to ever run 15 furlongs in the Kentucky Derby.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

He's a ****ing faster version of Giacomo, so you tell me why he won't keep closing when others are quitting and get a piece.

Mike Smith sucked in New York, but he's capable of a great ride every once in a while, and this is his kind of horse.

Unless they go :24 and :49, he'll crack the super.

Almost the same TG wise, except less races for Tiago....

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

I'm concerned about there being an underlying issue we don't know about. Circular Quay is definitely a talented colt, but I'm just concerned about the long layoff and fact that the colt is 800 lbs soaking wet. How is a colt like that going to withstand the bumping and grinding (no pun intended) of the Derby?

He has been bounced around in all his races, and he still comes flying.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Scav

Yeah, I am all over it this year, I just freed up another $300 for this wager alone. SO just for the Derby I am doing

$10 exacta box with 5 horses
$100 WP on CQ, doesn't matter of post
$1 tri with CQ in all three spots with 10 horses in each of the legs

SO I am already in the hole $670

By the way, my most likely choice to key at this point is Hard Spun. I don't feel super confident he can win (I don't have any real strong opinion this year at all) but I feel very confident in his chances to hit the board.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Scav

He has been bounced around in all his races, and he still comes flying.

With 19 other horses going 10 furlongs? I think I'll have to pass on him. I'll let him beat me.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by philcski

By the way, my most likely choice to key at this point is Hard Spun. I don't feel super confident he can win (I don't have any real strong opinion this year at all) but I feel very confident in his chances to hit the board.

Interesting selection right here. He would definitely be part of my ticket in the other legs when using CQ and his 'tg' sheet is very solid, I worry about distance though. In my experience, every Danzig I have ever beat seems to be gasping as the wire. my experience, one of those instances for a horse player I guess

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Scav

Interesting selection right here. He would definitely be part of my ticket in the other legs when using CQ and his 'tg' sheet is very solid, I worry about distance though. In my experience, every Danzig I have ever beat seems to be gasping as the wire. my experience, one of those instances for a horse player I guess

He's got stamina top and bottom (Turkoman has one of the highest AWD's of American sires), with tactical speed. The distance isn't a concern, the trip is though- he doesn't quite have the tactical speed of say a Smarty Jones or Afleet Alex, and doesn't have quite the late kick of a Thunder Gulch, but runs very consistently and hasn't fired a bad race yet (I don't care what anyone says, that Arkansas race wasn't bad at all under an impossible scenario.) A very good chance to hit the board, even if his win odds may be slightly underlaid to his actual possibility of winning.

My second choice to key will likely be Street Sense if the public doesn't recognize his talents, and 3rd choice of CQ (the layoff is really driving me crazy because I think he may be the best "fit" of all the runners in the field to win if Pletcher can get him right.)

[hockey2315]

Phil- What do you make of the way Hard Spun's connections have gone back and forth about going to the Derby, running in the Bluegrass, etc. . . ?