Chelokee

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Originally Posted by Linny

Is that the maiden that was second in the UAE Derby?

Xchanger, Birdbird and King of the Roxy are not likely for the Derby. Adore the Gold is questionable as is Stormello. I don't know if Sedgefield is really being considered.
That puts Chelokee "in." The problem is that several rivals behind him still have races and could vault by him. Summer Doldrums, Sam P and Teuflesberg could keep him out.

if king of the roxy wins the santa anita derby or even if he runs a big second i'd be shocked if he dident run in the derby especially with ravel being out for pletcher.

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

we dont know for sure yet about CQ and there are more preps to be run, the santa anita derby is very very weak a longshot could win that race and come from out of nowhere and make the starting gate, i think tiago will run huge in the santa anita derby... i guess my point is, i think chelokee is a huge longshot to make the starting gate at this point

I dont know about huge, but longshot yes. Nonetheless I think the CQ news puts him a bit closer. I would agree with the other posters that something is wrong and they are hoping some significant problem gets better. Preps are preparations for the Derby I believe.

[PPerfectfan]

I dislike Scat Daddy

but the SD horse keeps beating me

Aint that the truth. I have never really cared for him but the sucker keeps running good races. Kinda hard to knock one that keeps winning.

[jpops757]

Originally Posted by Linny

Is that the maiden that was second in the UAE Derby?

Xchanger, Birdbird and King of the Roxy are not likely for the Derby. Adore the Gold is questionable as is Stormello. I don't know if Sedgefield is really being considered.
That puts Chelokee "in." The problem is that several rivals behind him still have races and could vault by him. Summer Doldrums, Sam P and Teuflesberg could keep him out.

Sedgefield is probably Millers number two 3yr old. Dominican has only run once this year and won but his BC was ok even if he didnt threaten.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Linny

Is that the maiden that was second in the UAE Derby?

Linny,

Yes.. Jack Junior. Pretty intriguing given trainer Brian Meehan who is as sharp
a conditioner as there is in the world. For that colt to turn in the effort he did off two 7f grass starts in September, is incredible. And the fact that he was ONLY 50-1 in the race gives an indication that Euro punters were hip to the possibility that Jack Junior was ready to run.

[Linny]

Indeed, off the form, that colt should have been 200-1 against Asiatic Boy and Eu Tambem, who all but failed to show up.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Linny,

Yes.. Jack Junior. Pretty intriguing given trainer Brian Meehan who is as sharp
a conditioner as there is in the world. For that colt to turn in the effort he did off two 7f grass starts in September, is incredible. And the fact that he was ONLY 50-1 in the race gives an indication that Euro punters were hip to the possibility that Jack Junior was ready to run.

Of course if would actually win a race.....

[eajinabi]

I do not think Owners/trainers will bypass the derby off of one bad race. If curlin or cobalt blue bomb in thier next prep I really think they will still go for the derby unless these horses were injured. Its the big dance and this is where every owner/trainer is targeting for.

Honestly BIRDBIRD should bypass cause he had 2 bad races. Sam P. will make it on the list after winning this weekends SA DERBY.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by eajinabi

I do not think Owners/trainers will bypass the derby off of one bad race. If curlin or cobalt blue bomb in thier next prep I really think they will still go for the derby unless these horses were injured. Its the big dance and this is where every owner/trainer is targeting for.

Honestly BIRDBIRD should bypass cause he had 2 bad races. Sam P. will make it on the list after winning this weekends SA DERBY.

He better tell Liquidity that!

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by eajinabi

Honestly BIRDBIRD should bypass cause he had 2 bad races.

I bet he will run

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I bet he will run

i bet he will finish 18-20 somewhere in there

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

i bet he will finish 18-20 somewhere in there

I think he has no chance but McP loves the spotlight even if he has zero chance.

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I think he has no chance but McP loves the spotlight even if he has zero chance.

i see what your saying, it just bothers me that a horse that has no chance will run and a up and coming horse like chelokee might have to sit out.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I think he has no chance but McP loves the spotlight even if he has zero chance.

Exactly right...which is why the system is dysfunctional. Congratulations for Delta for having a $1 million race, but it must be stripped of its graded status if the system stays like this. The WinStar Derby has no grade, neither the Southwest and those races have had more Derby contenders than the Delta Jackpot.

NT

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

i see what your saying, it just bothers me that a horse that has no chance will run and a up and coming horse like chelokee might have to sit out.

He probably doesn't 'deserve' a spot because he was third in one graded stakes race either.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Exactly right...which is why the system is dysfunctional. Congratulations for Delta for having a $1 million race, but it must be stripped of its graded status if the system stays like this. The WinStar Derby has no grade, neither the Southwest and those races have had more Derby contenders than the Delta Jackpot.

NT

I favor the system of grade 1 money is counted 100%, grade 2 is counted 75%, Grade 3 is counted 50% and listed stakes $ counts for 25%

[Linny]

I agree Cannon, a "sliding scale" using more points for G1's. Maybe give partial points for sprints vs routes etc.

Matz knew he was putting all his eggs in one basket with Chelokee. Last summer at Saratoga, I knew who this horse was but most folks didn't. Everyone was asking about him. Matz was high on him and Prado rode him for some works. Matz knew that he was not Babaro though. When he lost that allowance in KY last fall then had a slight setback he knew he would probably get in 1 graded prep.
Now he has to hope others drop out or change plans and run in something like the Lexington. He gambled and may have missed the big pot. Of course in the long run his horse may benefit.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Linny

.

Of course in the long run his horse may benefit.

yes he will