Can he do it?

[Thunder Gulch]

Sure he can, but I think he is much less likely than I had rated the likes of I'll Have Another, Smarty Jones, Big Brown and others. To me this is more like a Funny Cide or War Emblem type attempt. A very good horse at the right time, but it doesn't feel like a great one to me.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

Sure he can, but I think he is much less likely than I had rated the likes of I'll Have Another, Smarty Jones, Big Brown and others. To me this is more like a Funny Cide or War Emblem type attempt. A very good horse at the right time, but it doesn't feel like a great one to me.

See, I actually rate him above most of them. He did well out west, won better races then, say, the Ill. Derby. Seems far more tractable than war emblem and funny cide. Didn't care for the folks surrounding big brown, and to a degree, I'll have another. The only one of those you mention that I thought really had a shot was smarty...and I think cc has a much better rider than sj had.

But, like I said, I've seen some damn good horsesncome this far and not do it. I wouldn't bet a plugged nickel that chrome will. It I'd like to see it happen.

Great story, small time owners, trainer who has worked in the industry for decades, and isn't a super trainer...a humble dam, a cheap stud fee...its something all of us on here dream of doing, finding that special horse...and playing the game at a top level without having to be rich as Croesus.

[casp0555]

Originally Posted by Danzig

See, I actually rate him above most of them. He did well out west, won better races then, say, the Ill. Derby. Seems far more tractable than war emblem and funny cide. Didn't care for the folks surrounding big brown, and to a degree, I'll have another. The only one of those you mention that I thought really had a shot was smarty...and I think cc has a much better rider than sj had.

But, like I said, I've seen some damn good horsesncome this far and not do it. I wouldn't bet a plugged nickel that chrome will. It I'd like to see it happen.

Great story, small time owners, trainer who has worked in the industry for decades, and isn't a super trainer...a humble dam, a cheap stud fee...its something all of us on here dream of doing, finding that special horse...and playing the game at a top level without having to be rich as Croesus.

It will be good for the game.....I have people at work , neighbors asking me who I like, If the Cali horse will win the TC.....it would be good for the game

Can the horse do it? Yes I think he can. The question is will the jockey who is not a regular rider at Belmont ask him too early or too late? It would benefit Victor Espinoza to have a few mounts that week at Belmont to get him use to the configuration.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Anything is possible but I do not expect him to win. As I have said before, I think when a horse wins the first two legs he is usually pretty knocked out for the Belmont. Not only that, I think the distance is a little long for CC. I'm a big fan of CC. I liked him in the Derby and Preakness but I don't like him in the Belmont at all. There will be plenty of fresh faces in there: Tonality, Bay of Plenty, possibly Candy Boy, and Commanding Curve to name a few.

Going 1 1/8 miles to 1 1/4 miles when he's fresh, I obviously think CC is the best horse. But going 1 1/2 miles when he's not fresh, I'll take my chances going against him. I will actually be surprised if he wins. To say it is difficult to win the TC is a huge understatement.

[Benny]

Originally Posted by helicopter11

Can the horse do it? Yes I think he can. The question is will the jockey who is not a regular rider at Belmont ask him too early or too late? It would benefit Victor Espinoza to have a few mounts that week at Belmont to get him use to the configuration.

Agree that he needs to get a feel for the unique Belmont strip a few days before, BUT, I think his brother can be very helpful tohim in preparation as he has many years on it.

That said CC has had two great trips on the TC trail. All it takes is a bad break from the gate or a bad trip as he will be targeted by freshened shooters. Victor admitted to the mental presssures he felt as the race didnot go as he thought it would, good thing he is so experienced.

[Calzone Lord]

In a crop hit hard by injuries and setbacks to promising route horses like Shared Belief, New Year's Day, and Honor Code...

California Chrome has certainly been a great thing for racing. Let's pretend he wrenched an ankle after the Santa Anita Derby.

That leaves Commanding Curve as your Kentucky Derby winner:



Instead of wearing a blanket of roses and etched in history as a Kentucky Derby winner, Commanding Curve still has his N1X allowance condition.


Ride On Curlin, a horse who is 0-for-8 lifetime in stakes races, would be a Preakness winner by a lopsided margin:




These two horses are a combined 1-for-15 lifetime in races beyond the distance of 6 furlongs. The lone win coming in a Maiden Special Weight race.


California Chrome hasn't exactly had to beat anywhere near the level of competition that some other horses have, to get to the Belmont with a shot at the Triple Crown.

However, he'll get a very tough test in the Belmont. He's not as well suited to the distance as some of his rivals, and a third race in five weeks, at a third different race track, is a test in it's own right.

He doesn't exactly have an Easy Goer or a Coastal set to oppose him, but he's in for a very challenging test and he'll surely get the best male competition this crop has to offer at the moment...and most of them won't be making their 3rd start in five weeks, at their third different track.

[GenuineRisk]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

California Chrome hasn't exactly had to beat anywhere near the level of competition that some other horses have, to get to the Belmont with a shot at the Triple Crown.

However, he'll get a very tough test in the Belmont. He's not as well suited to the distance as some of his rivals, and a third race in five weeks, at a third different race track, is a test in it's own right.

He doesn't exactly have an Easy Goer or a Coastal set to oppose him, but he's in for a very challenging test and he'll surely get the best male competition this crop has to offer at the moment...and most of them won't be making their 3rd start in five weeks, at their third different track.

Now, see, this post just makes me disappointed all over again about the 2004 Belmont.

[joeydb]

Originally Posted by casp0555

It will be good for the game.....I have people at work , neighbors asking me who I like, If the Cali horse will win the TC.....it would be good for the game

No question about it - would be great for the game. A real shot in the arm on the public relations side.