The hype on Top Billing has gone overboard

[LITF]

I am just a minor player, once a month at most. I played today and, unfortunately, got crushed so I'm not sure my opinion means anything. But I thought the bias was clearly evident. I also thought there were two horses going forward that I wanted to play on the derby trail after today at Gulfstream. They were Mexikoma and Top Billing. I have never been a fan of Mexikoma but he closed into moderate fractions (24.31, 47.71, 1.11.03) and did so against the bias. With where he was positioned in the race coupled with how the track was playing I think that pretty much eliminated him from win contention. All that said, I thought he ran lights out and will be looking forward to playing him back next time, depending, of course, on where he shows up. Top Billing had faster fractions to close into (23.03, 46.25, 1.10.13) but he had much better horses to close down and had every right to tire with his trip. I thought he was a winner with an eighth of a mile to run so it was disappointing to see him not be able to close it down but I think this was the perfect prep and so long as the Gulfstream strip is not a speedway come Florida Derby day I will be playing him. If people think he is the Derby frontrunner I don't see why they should back off of that after today. The only knock I can find is the way East Hall ran. The Pletcher horses, on the other hand, looked dreadful.

Being a novice I am interested if others saw these races the same as I did or if I am just someone who doesn't know the horses! I appreciate any feedback. As for the Risen Star, I think those horses are not even worth discussing. Thanks in advance. I need all the help I can get.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by LITF

I am just a minor player, once a month at most. I played today and, unfortunately, got crushed so I'm not sure my opinion means anything. But I thought the bias was clearly evident. I also thought there were two horses going forward that I wanted to play on the derby trail after today at Gulfstream. They were Mexikoma and Top Billing. I have never been a fan of Mexikoma but he closed into moderate fractions (24.31, 47.71, 1.11.03) and did so against the bias. With where he was positioned in the race coupled with how the track was playing I think that pretty much eliminated him from win contention. All that said, I thought he ran lights out and will be looking forward to playing him back next time, depending, of course, on where he shows up. Top Billing had faster fractions to close into (23.03, 46.25, 1.10.13) but he had much better horses to close down and had every right to tire with his trip. I thought he was a winner with an eighth of a mile to run so it was disappointing to see him not be able to close it down but I think this was the perfect prep and so long as the Gulfstream strip is not a speedway come Florida Derby day I will be playing him. If people think he is the Derby frontrunner I don't see why they should back off of that after today. The only knock I can find is the way East Hall ran. The Pletcher horses, on the other hand, looked dreadful.

Being a novice I am interested if others saw these races the same as I did or if I am just someone who doesn't know the horses! I appreciate any feedback. As for the Risen Star, I think those horses are not even worth discussing. Thanks in advance. I need all the help I can get.

I thought Mexicoma ran a solid race too.

But...

Rick Mettee?????

I'd just as soon have Randy Bradshaw or Alex Hassinger train a horse.

[pmayjr]

Originally Posted by LITF

As for the Risen Star, I think those horses are not even worth discussing. Thanks in advance. I need all the help I can get.

I think there needs to be some discussion about the top finishers in the Fairgrounds race. Do I think any of the horses I saw in the Risen Star could beat Cairo Prince? No. But, I'm not convinced what was running in the Fountain of Youth was any better than what was at FG. At least as far as Derby potential is concerned. At a mile and sixteenth, Wildcat Red and General Arod can carry their speed that far. But much further? Speed bias or not, I have serious questions about that.

With the way Gulfstream was playing today, Intense Holiday probably wouldn't have won the Fountain of Youth. But on paper was he really all that much worse than the others in the FoY?

[pmayjr]

by the way, does anyone have link to view the AOC race at Gulfstream today? The 6th?

[robfla]

Originally Posted by pmayjr

by the way, does anyone have link to view the AOC race at Gulfstream today? The 6th?

http://tnetwork.trakus.com/tnet/t_Gu...TBRED&Venue=20

[LITF]

I think that race will prove to be unproductive. I think Vicar's In Trouble's race was best but it was just okay. There isn't a lot to be excited about moving forward on the derby trail from here. Maybe Hopppertunity and Commanding Curve will run better with more distance but I don't think there fast enough to factor in the later prep races. However, I will be rooting for them.

I love Bayern. I think he's the real deal and if he can get to Churchill he will have a big shot. I also like Tamarando...maybe because I have had too much to drink but that's okay! Let's hope he doesn't see dirt until the Derby.

There was a huge speed bias today at Gulfstream. Front runners had a conveyer belt and there are 3 horses that are on my Watch list for next out

Mexikoma
East Hall
Top Billing