How Derby winners have performed in Preakness since '89

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Some of those other closers had pretty good positional speed.

Fu Peg was never more than 3.5 lengths back in the Wood Memorial and Never more than 1 length back in the San Felipe and he dominated both races.

FuPeg also lost to a fresh horse in the Preakness.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

FuPeg also lost to a fresh horse in the Preakness.

One of the admirable things about Orb is his hardiness and ability to gradually improve a little with each start.

Animal Kingdom won his Derby with a looping wide move into the teeth of a slow early pace. It was the kind of analytically exciting performance that Orb has never come remotely close to delivering.

Animal Kingdom is a sissy though. He runs killer races and does historic things on all 3 surfaces ... his race in the BC Mile off that kind of layoff was unreal, winning a Dubai World Cup on Tapeta in that fashion ... just awesome.

But, he doesn't exactly campaign like Kelso or Spectacular Bid. He gives one great performance on the big race he's primed for, and either regresses or is put in mothballs.

Fu Peg wasn't the hardiest horse either.

I'll bet against it ... but Orb's best cards right now might be his hardiness and his lack of decent competition from within this crop.

I've Struck a Nerve came into the Risen Star Stakes with a 1-for-8 record, and he won it at odds of 135/1. Code West, who got humiliated in a workout by the filly Midnight Lucky finished 2nd. He couldn't even win an N1X allowance race on the Derby undercard.

And who was behind 135/1 shot I've Struck a Nerve and fading Baffert Code West in the Risen Star:

Golden Soul (Derby 2nd place finisher)
Normandy Invasion (Derby 4th place finisher)
Mylute (Derby 5th place finisher)
Oxbow (Derby 6th place finisher)
Palace Malice (Derby near record setting pace setter)

All of them in the wake of I've Struck A Nerve and Code West. The two big excuse horses that day (Oxbow and Normandy Invasion both had horrid trips in the Risen Star) both seem like the best chances in the Preakness.

[asudevil]

Douglas,

Always great stuff!

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by asudevil

Douglas,

Always great stuff!

It will probably prove trivial if all of this deep fried speed goes (Titletown Five, Goldencents, Vyjack, Gov Charlie, Itsmyluckyday, Oxbow, etc)

If Normandy Invasion stays away and six speed horses show up off of a fading running line ... this race is a pass and I wouldn't bet 2-cents against Orb ... who won't be underlayed because of the big crowd a/effect that led to Wise Dan paying $3.20 against Lukas and some rats...when he would have paid $2.40 max almost any other day.

[miraja2]

Obviously a lot could change between now and post time but at the moment it seems to me that backwheeling Orb in exactas and tris will probably provide the best value. There will be enough speed entered and he's a consistent enough horse that an off-the-board finish by him seems extremely unlikely. On the other hand, he'll be seriously overbet on top in the exotics and given the way the Derby was run, as DrugS pointed out, the only value in the race will be in trying to beat him.

[tywizard]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

One of the admirable things about Orb is his hardiness and ability to gradually improve a little with each start.

Animal Kingdom won his Derby with a looping wide move into the teeth of a slow early pace. It was the kind of analytically exciting performance that Orb has never come remotely close to delivering.

Animal Kingdom is a sissy though. He runs killer races and does historic things on all 3 surfaces ... his race in the BC Mile off that kind of layoff was unreal, winning a Dubai World Cup on Tapeta in that fashion ... just awesome.

But, he doesn't exactly campaign like Kelso or Spectacular Bid. He gives one great performance on the big race he's primed for, and either regresses or is put in mothballs.

Fu Peg wasn't the hardiest horse either.

I'll bet against it ... but Orb's best cards right now might be his hardiness and his lack of decent competition from within this crop.

I've Struck a Nerve came into the Risen Star Stakes with a 1-for-8 record, and he won it at odds of 135/1. Code West, who got humiliated in a workout by the filly Midnight Lucky finished 2nd. He couldn't even win an N1X allowance race on the Derby undercard.

And who was behind 135/1 shot I've Struck a Nerve and fading Baffert Code West in the Risen Star:

Golden Soul (Derby 2nd place finisher)
Normandy Invasion (Derby 4th place finisher)
Mylute (Derby 5th place finisher)
Oxbow (Derby 6th place finisher)
Palace Malice (Derby near record setting pace setter)

All of them in the wake of I've Struck A Nerve and Code West. The two big excuse horses that day (Oxbow and Normandy Invasion both had horrid trips in the Risen Star) both seem like the best chances in the Preakness.

As always, I enjoy reading your analysis. I will say however that I don't fully understand the relevance of the risen star. If these are developing 3YOs then it stands to reason that earlier races may not be the best measure of current form and ability. Even if you look at the more recent Louisiana Derby, the top four have all returned to have solid next out performances (which I think also indicates that BSF were wrong about that race).


There continues to be a ton of Golden Soul bashing....There is an equal amount of excuse being given to Normandy Invasion. If you erase identifiers and look at the pre derby PPs of Golden Soul and Normandy Invasion you will see a lot of similarities in my opinion. The biggest difference was that the former was five times the price. Will the have similar tracks post Derby? I'm not sure, just trying to understand how Normandy backers tossed Golden Soul (if they did).

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by tywizard

however that I don't fully understand the relevance of the risen star.

It's simply not a good crop of 3-year-olds colts.

The group that ran in the Breeders Cup Juvenile last year wasn't much, Southern California only getting one horse to the Derby ...and a bunch of the underneath Derby horses losing to I've Struck A Nerve are three ways you could try illustrating it.

[GenuineRisk]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

It's simply not a good crop of 3-year-olds colts.

The group that ran in the Breeders Cup Juvenile last year wasn't much, Southern California only getting one horse to the Derby ...and a bunch of the underneath Derby horses losing to I've Struck A Nerve are three ways you could try illustrating it.

Which, sadly, may be the only circumstances under which we ever see a Triple Crown winner again- one 3-year-old who is just better than a mediocre rest of the crop during the 5 weeks of the Triple Crown.

Not saying that's Orb, though as a fan of racing of course I wish it to be.

I rewatched the Sunday Silence/Easy Goer Preakness recently and thought about how if either of them had been born in a different year, the other would have been a TC winner.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by GenuineRisk

Which, sadly, may be the only circumstances under which we ever see a Triple Crown winner again- one 3-year-old who is just better than a mediocre rest of the crop during the 5 weeks of the Triple Crown.

Yeah. Mine That Bird made a respectable bid at it.

Had Rachel Alexandra not run in the Preakness, he'd have nailed down the first two legs of the triple crown and looked a sure winner on the far turn of the Belmont Stakes.

Real Quiet, while very much a fine horse, almost had it. But he was no superstar. He had a couple of defeats at Santa Fe Downs on his 2yo form, he bombed in a race at Golden Gate at age 3, and wasn't exactly a killer older horse.

Meanwhile, Skip Away and Holy Bull both came into the triple crown as top figure in their final prep races ... and they didn't manage to win a single race in the series between them.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Yeah. Mine That Bird made a respectable bid at it.

Had Rachel Alexandra not run in the Preakness, he'd have nailed down the first two legs of the triple crown and looked a sure winner on the far turn of the Belmont Stakes.

Real Quiet, while very much a fine horse, almost had it. But he was no superstar. He had a couple of defeats at Santa Fe Downs on his 2yo form, he bombed in a race at Golden Gate at age 3, and wasn't exactly a killer older horse.

Meanwhile, Skip Away and Holy Bull both came into the triple crown as top figure in their final prep races ... and they didn't manage to win a single race in the series between them.

Mine that Birds Derby was much better than people thought, here is the paceline

CD 05/02/2009 11 98 90 86 Mine That Bird

So it was a +12, and only a 98 on the front end, hardly anything crazy, so he started flying by horses who were not exactly stopping, the final time is also solid in compared to other derbys the past decade.

[GenuineRisk]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Meanwhile, Skip Away and Holy Bull both came into the triple crown as top figure in their final prep races ... and they didn't manage to win a single race in the series between them.

Jay Cronley's column on the ESPN site this week says that- not about Skip Away and Holy Bull specifically, but that the Derby winners in recent years have not had the highest number going in. Though sometimes he's so rambling he makes me wonder if he tipped back a few before sitting down at the keyboard, I always enjoy Cronley's columns. I thought this week was particularly good.

http://espn.go.com/horse-racing/stor...rby-mind-games

[Conrad]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Yeah. Mine That Bird made a respectable bid at it.

Had Rachel Alexandra not run in the Preakness, he'd have nailed down the first two legs of the triple crown and looked a sure winner on the far turn of the Belmont Stakes.

Just imagine if Afleet Alex had stumbled worse or gone down in the Preakness - Scrappy T would have been taken down and Giacomo (who finished 3rd) would have been trying for all the marbles in the Belmont.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

It's simply not a good crop of 3-year-olds colts.

The group that ran in the Breeders Cup Juvenile last year wasn't much, Southern California only getting one horse to the Derby ...and a bunch of the underneath Derby horses losing to I've Struck A Nerve are three ways you could try illustrating it.

I'll take this crop all day long compared to '11, '10, '09 (less Rachel), '08 (less Big Brown).

[Calzone Lord]

Time will tell where this crop belongs when compared to other 3-year-old crops.

The big 2-year-old races:

Breeders Cup Juvenile: All starters in this race are a combined 0-for-16 in Graded Stakes races since.

Kentucky Jockey Club: The top 5 finishers are a combined 0-for-17 since after Uncaptured was beaten as the 2-5 favorite in the Wando Stakes.

The Cash Call Futurity: Violence won - he's hurt. Fury Kapcori was 2nd. He hasn't run back. Den Legacy was 3rd, he stinks.

The Remsen, the best 2yo race last year (1:50.27 at 9f) has been overshadowed by a slow maiden race (1:38.73) run a few races earlier. That maiden race was won by Orb. Revolutionary finished 3rd.

[GenuineRisk]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

I'll take this crop all day long compared to '11, '10, '09 (less Rachel), '08 (less Big Brown).

The class of '11 had some who turned into pretty nice horses. One of them won some big race overseas back in March, I hear.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by GenuineRisk

The class of '11 had some who turned into pretty nice horses. One of them won some big race overseas back in March, I hear.

My apologies to Animal Kingdom and Shackleford.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

FuPeg also lost to a fresh horse in the Preakness.

He also didn't handle the track.