6/8 (BEL) 145th Belmont Stakes: Field at 14 as 'Tiz' passes

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Orb is obviously going to be the post time favorite in the Kentucky Derby, and he just ran 11 lengths slower than Dreaming of Julia on the same day and same distance.

She's excluded from entering in favor of Fear The Kitten, now that Tiz A Minsiter is out after his 3rd place finish in the Cal Bred stake last weekend.

You know, because she didn't "earn" her way in like they did.

I'm not defending the points system, but simply pointing out that yearly changes are going to make the bottom amount needed for entry fluctuate.

The exclusion of races for fillies, the Illinois Derby hilarity, and the BC Juvenile not being an auto entry seem to be the three biggest flaws with the system. The 1st and 3rd have simple fixes. The 2nd depends on if CDI is still in a pissing match with Hawthorne.

I think the GP Oaks-FG Oaks-Gazelle-Ashland and Fantasy should be in the 50 pt range, so should the Juvenile.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I'm not defending the points system, but simply pointing out that yearly changes are going to make the bottom amount needed for entry fluctuate.

The exclusion of races for fillies, the Illinois Derby hilarity, and the BC Juvenile not being an auto entry seem to be the three biggest flaws with the system. The 1st and 3rd have simple fixes. The 2nd depends on if CDI is still in a pissing match with Hawthorne.

I think the GP Oaks-FG Oaks-Gazelle-Ashland and Fantasy should be in the 50 pt range, so should the Juvenile.

Don't agree. Why should a race Restricted to Fillies have any bearing on entry into an Open race? If the Fillies want to compete then step up and enter the preps.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by jms62

Don't agree. Why should a race Restricted to Fillies have any bearing on entry into an Open race? If the Fillies want to compete then step up and enter the preps.

why should a top horse be barred from entry?

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Danzig

why should a top horse be barred from entry?

Why should North Dakota State be barred from BCS championship? The path to the derby is clearly defined as is the path to the BCS. The races are Open and fillies are not barred. A Todd Pletcher horse that freaked at Gulfstream vs 5 other horses in what turned out to be a glorified workout and now eveyone is screaming that the system is broke. Funny I don't remember a single post expressing any outrage that Restricted Filly races were omitted prior to Dreaming of Julia's race. This is my last post on the subject as I need to spend my time handicapping these races good Luck to everyone and especially to those experts that deem anyones opinion but their own as "stupid".

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by jms62

Why should North Dakota State be barred from BCS championship? The path to the derby is clearly defined as is the path to the BCS. The races are Open and fillies are not barred. A Todd Pletcher horse that freaked at Gulfstream vs 5 other horses in what turned out to be a glorified workout and now eveyone is screaming that the system is broke. Funny I don't remember a single post expressing any outrage that Restricted Filly races were omitted prior to Dreaming of Julia's race. This is my last post on the subject as I need to spend my time handicapping these races good Luck to everyone and especially to those "experts" that deem anyones opinion but their own as "stupid".

I agree with you. Its actually pretty clear cut. The system was set as is, nothing was said until after her 114 beyer. Funny thing about her, for me, is that every other race in her career just makes her a contender. It would be different if Todd didn't have a track record with this stuff. Now Im fully aware a few of his horses have carried the Gulfstream form to Belmont, but Im still dubious with this filly on Friday.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by jms62

Why should North Dakota State be barred from BCS championship?

That might be the most idiotic analogy I've ever heard in my life.

A race horse is not a sports team...it's a single individual entity.

North Dakota is a TEAM of individual players. 11 are on the field at all times. Race horses are individuals. They don't race together as a team in units of eleven. Got that?

Jerry Rice was voted the #1 NFL player of all-time...he played at Mississippi Valley State...which is barred from the BCS. Walter Payton played at Jackson State and he was a top 5 player all-time.

The 1st pick in the NFL draft just came from the Central Michigan Chippewas.

Comparing football players to race horses is dopey enough ... but you want to compare entire football teams with a 52-man roster to race horses?

Tears, Jerry, tears.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

That might be the most idiotic analogy I've ever heard in my life.

A race horse is not a sports team...it's a single individual entity.

North Dakota is a TEAM of individual players. 11 are on the field at all times. Race horses are individuals. They don't race together as a team in units of eleven. Got that?

Jerry Rice was voted the #1 NFL player of all-time...he played at Mississippi Valley State...which is barred from the BCS. Walter Payton played at Jackson State and he was a top 5 player all-time.

The 1st pick in the NFL draft just came from the Central Michigan Chippewas.

Comparing football players to race horses is dopey enough ... but you want to compare entire football teams with a 52-man roster to race horses?

Tears, Jerry, tears.

Wow you didnt or you didnt want too.Please let me explain. The path to both the Derby and BCS are CLEARLY defined ahead of time. If you choose for whatever reason not to follow the path then you dont get in really very elementary Dougie.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by jms62

Why should North Dakota State be barred from BCS championship? The path to the derby is clearly defined as is the path to the BCS. The races are Open and fillies are not barred. A Todd Pletcher horse that freaked at Gulfstream vs 5 other horses in what turned out to be a glorified workout and now eveyone is screaming that the system is broke. Funny I don't remember a single post expressing any outrage that Restricted Filly races were omitted prior to Dreaming of Julia's race. This is my last post on the subject as I need to spend my time handicapping these races good Luck to everyone and especially to those "experts" that deem anyones opinion but their own as "stupid".

one, i never said someone with a differing opinion was stupid, and two, it's been said for months now, ever since the points system was first trotted out, that it had flaws. omitting filly races is one of them, was always mentioned as an error of omission.
good luck 'capping.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Danzig

one, i never said someone with a differing opinion was stupid, and two, it's been said for months now, ever since the points system was first trotted out, that it had flaws. omitting filly races is one of them, was always mentioned as an error of omission.
good luck 'capping.

You too.

[lemoncrush]

Can't wait for the watch the post position draw online.

It's like watching a Cable Access TV production from 1988.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

It's a comically stupid point.

No one knew Dreaming of Julia was anywhere near that good until her last race. What kind of moronic trainer would have started her in the Florida Derby?

here is a list of every single filly to race in the Kentucky Derby since 1945:

2010 Devil May Care
2008 Eight Belles
1999 Excellent Meeting
1999 Three Ring
1995 Serena's Song
1988 Winning Colors
1984 Life's Magic
1984 Althea
1982 Cupecoy's Joy
1980 Genuine Risk
1959 Silver Spoon

That's a grand total of just 11 fillies. And 2 of them won it.

I think the last filly to enter the Preakness was Rachel Alexandra, she won.

I think the last filly to enter the Belmont is Rags to Riches, she won.

The simple solution was always to slap the 'win and you're in' label on the final major Kentucky Oaks preps.

Under the old system... thousands of fillies had the Graded Earnings to get into the Derby ... of those thousands, only 11 started. Even Rachel Alexandra and Rags To Riches ducked.

The 19th and 20th horses to get in on points are going to be garbage pales almost every year...if you haven't figured that out yet. And even top class fillies are going to avoid the Derby because of the conservative nature of horse trainers... if you haven't figured that out yet.

It's actually far from comically stupid. It's totally relevant.

[Clip-Clop]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

It's relevant if you don't have any idea what you're talking about.

Even D. Wayne Lukas wouldn't have run Dreaming of Julia in the Florida Derby. She wasn't even the morning line favorite in the race she plastered Live Lively and Emollient by 20+ lengths.

Luckily, Goldencents was born with a set of balls and a shaft. He has a MUCH better shot in the Derby than he would the Kentucky Oaks.

And 10-15 others too.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Clip-Clop

And 10-15 others too.

The Oaks is a pace melt-down waiting to happen. If I trained Dreaming of Julia she'd scratch and point for the triple tiara.

Let Midnight Lucky, Close Hatches, Beholder, and the four or five other quality speeds in there take each other apart.

There is a 0.00% chance I'd start her in the Oaks. The New York races are just as prestigious and the Breeders Cup Distaff is far more prestigious than the Oaks.

Pletcher is kid-gloving Dreaming of Julia into this race. Her final work was sundial slow under a full nelson. It looked more like a gallop than a work.

[Clip-Clop]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

The Oaks is a pace melt-down waiting to happen. If I trained Dreaming of Julia she'd scratch and point for the triple tiara.

Let Midnight Lucky, Close Hatches, Beholder, and the four or five other quality speeds in there take each other apart.

There is a 0.00% chance I'd start her in the Oaks. The New York races are just as prestigious and the Breeders Cup Distaff is far more prestigious than the Oaks.

Pletcher is kid-gloving Dreaming of Julia into this race. Her final work was sundial slow under a full nelson. It looked more like a gallop than a work.

I fear she might be another GS freak from that barn. Will be wagering like it too.

[dino]

With the Oaks being at 1 1/8 I was wondering about the inside posts. Obviously they aren't as bad as they Derby but maybe someone can give me some insight on the inside posts...thanks

[tywizard]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

The Oaks is a pace melt-down waiting to happen. If I trained Dreaming of Julia she'd scratch and point for the triple tiara.

Let Midnight Lucky, Close Hatches, Beholder, and the four or five other quality speeds in there take each other apart.

There is a 0.00% chance I'd start her in the Oaks. The New York races are just as prestigious and the Breeders Cup Distaff is far more prestigious than the Oaks.

Pletcher is kid-gloving Dreaming of Julia into this race. Her final work was sundial slow under a full nelson. It looked more like a gallop than a work.

I agree with you and think a lot of other people do to...precisely why most think she fits in the Derby which appears to have a general lack of pace.

Nevertheless, does this mean you're endorsing Pure Fun in the Oaks?

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by tywizard

Nevertheless, does this mean you're endorsing Pure Fun in the Oaks?

I loved her race over the track last year. She's always stunk on true synthetic surfaces and turf.

She got sick for a few days right after her comeback race ... and that is something that derails the form of a lot of young horses. Every week that I've heard about a horse who was sick after a race this year, they've completely bombed in their next race and their form didn't quickly recover. Purple Egg stopped on a dime in that Tampa Derby 1st off being reportedly sick. My Name is Micheal had good Canadian poly form for a weak trainer, ran fine at Tampa for Mott, got sick, and completely bombed in the Spiral.

My father said it often threw his cheap horses for negative form reversals, and when you're talking about younger horses who do more training in between starts, it's really not a good sign IMO.

McPeek said Pure Fun was breathing very hard after the Lexington.

I have to use Pure Fun because of the pace dynamics and because I believe this is the surface she wants ... but I wish she came up to this race better. Her entry looks like a case of Oaks fever. It would be easier for me to draw a line threw her two weak Poly races this year if I didn't read and hear that she cameback sick for a few days out of her comeback.

[blackthroatedwind]

Steve is a little busy, but he wanted to be sure to beat Alan to the punch with the big news about Giant Finish supplanting Fear the Kitten as the worst the horse in this year's Derby....though Charming Kitten may take offense to that assertion.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

It's relevant if you don't have any idea what you're talking about.

Even D. Wayne Lukas wouldn't have run Dreaming of Julia in the Florida Derby. She wasn't even the morning line favorite in the race she plastered Live Lively and Emollient by 20+ lengths.

Luckily, Goldencents was born with a set of balls and a shaft. He has a MUCH better shot in the Derby than he would the Kentucky Oaks.

Right, becasue Derby Fever can hit owners of horses like Fear The Kitten, but it can't hit the owners of a filly that runs 3rd twice in races restricted to fillies. Or perhaps two fillies.

My point is that there is no fair way to fix this problem that you are saying exists. And you are somehow absolving the connections of the fillies of any blame at all.

[GenuineRisk]

I agree with you, Doug, that the filly races should have some weight toward the Derby since 3-year-olds are so lightly raced nowadays that, as you said, no one knew Dreaming of Julia was that good until her last race, but the list you offer up of the fillies that ran in the Derby doesn't help the argument. Of the list, the only one who hit the board and would have been excluded under the current system is Eight Belles.

2010 Devil May Care- 10th
2008 Eight Belles- 2nd
1999 Excellent Meeting- 5th
1999 Three Ring- 19th
1995 Serena's Song- 16th (won Jim Beam against males)
1988 Winning Colors- 1st (won Santa Anita Derby)
1984 Life's Magic- 8th (ran 5th in Santa Anita Derby)
1984 Althea- 19th (won Arkansas Derby)
1982 Cupecoy's Joy- 10th
1980 Genuine Risk- 1st (third in Wood)
1959 Silver Spoon- 5th (won Santa Anita Derby)

So over half of them raced against the boys prior to the Derby anyway. The Preakness and Belmont aren't relevant as nothing has changed with them.

Again, I agree with you that the Oaks prep races should count, because I agree filly owners don't run fillies unless they feel they have a real chance and it's good for the sport's profile when fillies run in the Derby. I just don't think that the fillies' record in the Derby helps the argument as the two winners would have made it in under the current system anyway, and Eight Belles is perhaps not the ideal poster child for good fillies who would have been excluded( RIP).