4/6: Aqueduct ($73k C/O); Santa Anita ($42k C/O)

[Kasept]

Highly anticipated Gulfstream meet-ender finished a bit maddeningly as one of the only poor weather days of the entire season took half the Rainbow 6 sequence off the turf while steady rain wrought sealed slop for the skein. The $4k+ reward for successful tickets was more than adequate for the tricky reads which required carefully constructed small budget tickets or liberal bankroll application. More than 1,400 winnings plays were cashed, a good re-allocation of the reserves. While the dust hasn't settled on the widely discussed concept, the 'unique ticket' jackpot bet has certainly taken root and seems to have more positives attached to it than negatives. Hope everyone enjoyed the Gulfstream season.

Aqueduct and Santa Anita take center stage Saturday with the Wood Memorial and SA Derby the eagerly awaited features and both venues offering P6 carryovers (NY-$73k; CA-$42k) as bonus attractions.


AQUEDUCT


PRE-SCRATCHES


7th: NY-OC/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Pleased to have Dee Tee's Toy Cannon healthy and back in NY after a very solid 4yo debut/prep at Gulfstream. He arrived late behind Romans' Master Wesley there and that one came back in his return to win a good S/ALW on the FL Derby undercard. The big gelding reunites with Alvarado and looks to have pace to attack here. James Jingle gets back to the lawn and will be a good price. Classy Gimme Credit is a seasoned, accomplished pro that still gets it done. Impatient Investor stretches out and moves to the grass. He has plenty of relatives that have been successful on the sod..

Most Likely: #10 Toy Cannon 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #4 James Jingle 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 Gimme Credit 3-1 WON ($10.60)
Exotics Use: #3 Impatient Investor 8-1 6th


8th: 118th Gazelle (G2), 3yo-F, 9f (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Walkwithapurpose 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Let Me Entertain U 10-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Close Hatches 8-5 WON ($4.50)
Exotics Use: #6 Princess of Sylmar 9-5 2nd


9th: 53rd Bay Shore (G3), 3yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Maniacally confounding group. Only 30-1 Silver Morgan looks impossible..

Most Likely: #4 Salutos Amigos 5-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Honorable Dillon 4-1 5th
Best Value: #3 Retrieve 20-1 7th
Exotics Use: #8 Clearly Now 5-2 2nd


10th: 113th Carter H. (G1), 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Sahara Sky 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Discreet Dancer 8-5 3rd
Best Value: #2 Fort Loudon 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Brigand 10-1 6th


11th: 89th Wood Memorial (G1), 3yo, 9f (DD)

Since you're going to have to use the top three anyway in your multis, why not reach for a jump candidate? Elnaawi is a striking, strapping colt that out-performed expectations in the Gotham while spotting experience and has progressed since. $500k Shadwell colt by Street Sense is half to To Honor and Serve who won just happened to win the Nashua, Remsen and Cigar Mile on this course. Fired best of 68 bullet (:59.2) preparing, is within striking range of the favorites and could ignite the day..

Best Value: #4 Elnaawi 12-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Normandy Invasion 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Verrazano 4-5 WON ($3.60)
Super Add: #5 Vyjack 4-1 3rd


<$50 P4 Play:

8: 1-2-4-6
9: 4-6
10: 2-4-5-7
11: 2-4-8

4x2x4x3 = 96 x .50 = $48


12th: CLM, 4+, 1m

Most Likely: #6 Pleasant Prince 5-2 4th
Next Best: #5 Diamond District 4-1 10th
Best Value: #11 Willy Pay 12-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Minescape 3-1 8th


<$200 P6 Play:

7: 3-4-9-10
8: 1-2-4-6
9: 4-6
10: 4
11: 2-4-8
12: 6

4x4x2x1x3x1 = 96 x $2 = $192


<$75 P4 Play:

9: 3-4-6-8
10: 1-4-5-7
11: 2-4-8
12: 5-6-11

4x4x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72



SANTA ANITA PARK


PRE-SCRATCHES


5th: 74th Santa Anita Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Beholder, while highly likely, faces some improving fillies here and the challenges could come in waves..

Most Likely: #6 Beholder 3-5 WON ($2.60)
Next Best: #4 Fiftyshadesofhay 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Could Be Trouble 8-1 5th


6th: 8th Thunder Road, 4+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Wilkinson 4-1 5th
Best Value: #4 Tigah 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Fed Biz 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Willyconker 9-2 8th


7th: 31st Potrero Grande (G2), 4+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Superbly matched group of seasoned sprinters young and old including Malibu winner Jimmy Creed making his 4yo bow. Kurt Hoover noted on ATR that Italian Rules would be dangerous if Spawr chose to run, but he has SCR'd. Haverhill too. Their departures make Comma to the Top lone speed unless Unbridled's Note or hot-working Apriority attack early..

Most Likely: #2 Comma to the Top 9-5 4th
Best Value: #7 Apriority 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Jimmy Creed 2-1 WON ($4.40)
Exotics Use: #6 Unbridled's Note 3-1 2nd


8th: 33rd Providencia (G3), 3yo-F, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Scarlet Strike was never overmatched on dirt against top competition but this is her more likely aptitiude..

Most Likely: #6 Scarlet Strike 7-2 WON ($6.00)
Next Best: #8 Flashy Ways 6-1 4th
Best Value: #1 Kyriaki 12-1 6th
Exotics Use: #7 Magnificent Shirl 4-1 7th


9th: 76th Santa Anita Derby (G1), 3yo, 9f (P3, DD)

Hollendorfer's bad Derby luck raised it's head again with Hear the Ghost suffering a setback that pauses his season, but this event still has plenty of intrigue. Baffert/West pair of Flashback and Power Broker shoulder to shoulder from the interior stalls leaving the gate and assume former finds forward position while allowing Summer Exclusive and overeager Goldencents. Super Ninety Nine, the third Baffert player, will surely try to sit into the backstretch and he and Flashback should have first run on the lead duo. These 4 naturally fast types make it feel like the potential is there for a spirited pace and Tiz a Minister should once again have an opportunity to make his late charge work..

Most Likely: #1 Flashback 6-5 2nd
Next Best: #6 Super Ninety Nine 9-2 3rd
Best Value: #3 Power Broker 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Tiz a Minister 5-1 4th


10th: OC/N1X, 4+, 6.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #4 Points Offthebench 7-2 WON ($6.40)
Next Best: #12 Gonna Fly Now 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Oliver's Tale 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #10 Wall Dance 6-1 4th


11th: S/ALW, 3+, 1m-T (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #4 East Sky 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #3 Square Dancer 5-1 WON ($8.60)
Next Best: #2 Bio Pro 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Russel's Run 3-1 7th
Super/Hi-5: #1 Affrettando 8-1 5th


<$150 P6 Play:

6: 2-4-7
7: 2-7
8: 6
9: 1-3-6
10: 4-12
11: 3-4

3x2x1x3x2x2 = 72 x $2 = $144


<$50 P4 Play:

8: 6
9: 1-3-4-5-6
10: 4-9-12
11: 2-3-4

1x5x3x3 = $45 ($22.50 for .50) $0.50 Pick 4 (6-5-4-3) Paid $559.30 ($279.65 for .50)


Good luck!
Steve

[Aly-Sheba]

Steve,
Do you give Sky Blazer any shot today in a tough allowance race @ Keenland?

Rob from the Az

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Aly-Sheba

Steve,

Do you give Sky Blazer any shot today in a tough allowance race @ Keenland?

Rob from the Az

Rob,

Mike Beer had a funny riff on ATR yesterday about being compelled to lose some more money on Sky Blazer. The race is pretty shapeless and he feels about 4th best in there on paper. Prado has won with him, loves the rail and will save all the ground. He's going to be a nice price and I suppose he could almost find himself in good position by default. Why not? G/L!

[zippyneedsawin]

Steve,

I feel the same way about the bay shore as you. I feel most have a chance and will play two tickets, one where I spread deep there and one where I single Honorable Dillon.

Good luck today.

[Kasept]

Dave Grening reports that Saturday's Charm is coming out of the Carter..

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin

Steve,

I feel the same way about the bay shore as you. I feel most have a chance and will play two tickets, one where I spread deep there and one where I single Honorable Dillon.

Good luck today.

Zip.. Makes sense. Think it very well may come down to Honorable Dillon closing into Salutos Amigos.. G/L today!

[ADJMK]

Good luck today with Toy Cannon.

[lazytom]

steve- nice run, congrats to you on a small ticket to boot-

[dagolfer33]

Good hit @ SA!!!!

[atolunch]

Nice job with Toy Cannon and great job on the P4 @ SA.

Congrats and thanks as always!!

[Kasept]

Thanks guys. Was a fun day at Aqueduct overall and appreciate all the support for Toy Cannon. Was a little disappointed running into the buzzsaw of Gimme Credit but mood brightened following the late action at SA on the way home. Hope everyone did well!

[Bogey]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Thanks guys. Was a fun day at Aqueduct overall and appreciate all the support for Toy Cannon. Was a little disappointed running into the buzzsaw of Gimme Credit but mood brightened following the late action at SA on the way home. Hope everyone did well!

Steve, nice work at SA, especially doubling up the PK4.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Bogey

Steve, nice work at SA, especially doubling up the PK4.

THX Gus.. Was 'clean up in Aisle 5' after the spillage at AQU. With your super action there and at KEE, listeners hopefully had a big day.