DRF Derby: Points standings v. Graded Earnings

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Points v. Graded Earnings Chart

Still have the 100-40-20-10 races to run yet, but right now, not a big schism between the scenarios..

Largest "$ Earners" that have minimal points currently? He's Had Enough, Capo Bastone, Fortify... 2yo successes.

This is interesting. As the large fields in final preps have come and gone, the chatter about the point system is waning. For a first try at a new system, I think CD did a pretty decent job. If 2YO "stars" like He's Had Enough, Capo Bastone and Overanalyze end up excluded because they haven't done bupkis in 2013, then I'm fine with it.

[Port Conway Lane]

After all is said and done the only disparity in the comparable chart this year (if one was to compare only 3YO graded earnings vs. points) will be the winner of the Illinois Derby. Over time if the current system stays intact the Illinois Derby could lose graded status, eliminating any future disparity. Kind of sad for them.

[cmorioles]

The Illinois Derby thing was the only problem I saw with it. That race alone isn't a big deal, but it sets a terrible precedent. What if next they decide to eliminate NY races? Or force horses to prep in Kentucky?

I know those are a huge stretch, but the fact they can use one race to screw over another tracks marquis even just doesn't seem right to me.

[Rudeboyelvis]

So if Shanghai Bobby, heaven forbid, gets a saddle slip or throws a shoe and yet runs his heart out to hold 5th - he kisses Chruchill Downs goodbye. Unless 20 points can save him, then they rush him back in the Lexington and completely take away any chance of a TC campaign.

I'm not a fan at all of this. At the very least, the 2yo BC champion should get an auto-bid.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

So if Shanghai Bobby, heaven forbid, gets a saddle slip or throws a shoe and yet runs his heart out to hold 5th - he kisses Chruchill Downs goodbye. Unless 20 points can save him, then they rush him back in the Lexington and completely take away any chance of a TC campaign.

I'm not a fan at all of this. At the very least, the 2yo BC champion should get an auto-bid.

They should award points according to graded stakes 3X for G1, 2X for G2 and 1X for G3. This should start with the Breeders Cup Juve and all graded stakes after. Market the Juve winner as the first in the Gate for the Derby. Then NBC Sports Network has a reality show showing all the preps leading up to the Derby. Keep the interest alive all winter.

[rpncaine]

That's a damn fine idea!

[Port Conway Lane]

Looking ahead it's probable that 14 horses will be locked in from the seven 100/40/20 point races. Add in the current 50+ point leaders and there will be 21 horses with at least 40 points. That places Oxbow (currently #8 with 36 points) and every horse below him behind at least 14 horses and possibly behind 21 others.

It's likely that a good percentage of the current leaders will make up a portion of the 1/2 finishers in the 100 point races and possibly every current leader could run 1/2 in the next set of preps.

So as reasonable as the list appears now (Graded earnings vs. points) where only a handful of horses with high earnings/low points are outside looking in there are at least 13 horses in the current top 20 that could be bypassed by any horse who currently has zero graded earnings/zero points and can manage a 2nd place finish in the 100 point races.

Wasn't it a few years ago that a horse who just broke his maiden finished
2nd in the Arkansas Derby, missed the earnings cut in Kentucky and turned out to be one of the leaders of the crop? Can't recall his name.Edit Summer Bird. 3rd in the Ark. Derby and to my surprise he ran in Kentucky.

Anyway it may be that the 2nd place points for the next set of preps are disproportionate with points given to the winners of the early 3YO preps and the 2nd place finishers in the 1st leg of the championship series.

I may retract my earlier statement that only the Illinois Derby winner would make a case in the earnings/points debate.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by jms62

They should award points according to graded stakes 3X for G1, 2X for G2 and 1X for G3. This should start with the Breeders Cup Juve and all graded stakes after. Market the Juve winner as the first in the Gate for the Derby. Then NBC Sports Network has a reality show showing all the preps leading up to the Derby. Keep the interest alive all winter.

This would be a good idea if graded sprints were excluded. Make it an 8 or 8.5 furlong minimum.

--Dunbar

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

This would be a good idea if graded sprints were excluded. Make it an 8 or 8.5 furlong minimum.

--Dunbar

I don't see any value at all in discrediting horses that run a decent 2yo campaign. the top runners in the Champagne traditionally do not embarrass themselves in the KY Derby, etc., so I don't really know what the point of all of this was, except to eliminate the Delta Jackpot winner from punching his ticket in November. Which could have been addressed by the Graded Stakes Committee, or by basically eliminating the race from contention (ala IL derby this year)

People can't bitch about how lightly raced horses are these days, and then celebrate a selection process that encourages precisely that.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

So if Shanghai Bobby, heaven forbid, gets a saddle slip or throws a shoe and yet runs his heart out to hold 5th - he kisses Chruchill Downs goodbye. Unless 20 points can save him, then they rush him back in the Lexington and completely take away any chance of a TC campaign.

I'm not a fan at all of this. At the very least, the 2yo BC champion should get an auto-bid.

i'd agree with this if you could point to a history of later success by the winner. but there doesn't seem to be a lot of correlation between being 2yo champion and success in later years.

you've had 27 winners (not including shanghai bobby) and of those 3 have placed in the derby. over he last 12 years you had street sense finally complete the double (he also won the tb derby and was 2nd in the bluegrass and would have qualified to start on those alone). but you also have 7 horses that didn't make the gate in may. 7 of the last 12.

if i were forced to draw some conclusion it would bend toward success at 2 means a greater likelyhood of physical problems at 3. there seems to be more evidence for that in the record of recent juvi winners than anything that would support a "bye" despite the lack of any 3yo success.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

So if Shanghai Bobby, heaven forbid, gets a saddle slip or throws a shoe and yet runs his heart out to hold 5th - he kisses Chruchill Downs goodbye. Unless 20 points can save him, then they rush him back in the Lexington and completely take away any chance of a TC campaign.

I'm not a fan at all of this. At the very least, the 2yo BC champion should get an auto-bid.

Heaven forbid the poor horse would actually have to run 3 times as a 3YO.

I agree that the BC Juvenile should be weighted so that the winner automatically makes the field. However, I will never weep for a Pletcher trainee who sat in his stall for two months while perfectly healthy.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Heaven forbid the poor horse would actually have to run 3 times as a 3YO.

I agree that the BC Juvenile should be weighted so that the winner automatically makes the field. However, I will never weep for a Pletcher trainee who sat in his stall for two months while perfectly healthy.

Can't really blame him for being gun shy these days. His horses drop like flies.

[jms62]

These would be the races Id choose from Breeders cup until last weekend. All routes and all Graded

Sunland Derby
Spiral
Rebel
San Felipe
Tampa Bay Derby
Gotham
Risen Star
Fountain Of Youth
Southwest
El Camino Real
Robert B. Lewis
Sam F. Davis
Withers
Holy Bull
LeComte
Sham
Jerome
Cashcall Futurity
Kentucky Jockey Club
Remsen
Delta Jackpot
Nashua
Breeders Cup Juvenile

[The Bart]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

So if Shanghai Bobby, heaven forbid, gets a saddle slip or throws a shoe and yet runs his heart out to hold 5th - he kisses Chruchill Downs goodbye. Unless 20 points can save him, then they rush him back in the Lexington and completely take away any chance of a TC campaign.

I'm not a fan at all of this. At the very least, the 2yo BC champion should get an auto-bid.

Why??????????

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by The Bart

Why??????????

Because maybe he is one of the 20 best horses and is a recognizable name?

Everyone acts like because a horse better suited as a sprinter ran in the Derby or a horse who was precocious as a 2 yo runs in the derby that it is some kind of crime.

[Danzig]

i disagree that the 2 yo bc winner should get an auto bid. i think the points system is doing a good job in ensuring that the best 3 yo's get in. if that doesn't include the juvie winner, it doesn't include him. it's up to the horse to earn a spot, and he's got as much time to do it as any other.

[Calzone Lord]

The fastest 3yo in America is already excluded.

Dreaming Of Julia is going to have a gigantic edge in highest last out speed figure, on everyones speed figures, going into the Derby.

She's a Pletcher going from Gulfstream to Churchill, so she's certainly unlikely to repeat that performance, but War Emblem and Charismatic both recently won the Kentucky Derby at huge odds with the highest last out speed figure going in.

The people who defended this point system said it would keep undeserving fillies out ... well ... using the graded earnings system, here is a list of every single filly to race in the Kentucky Derby since 1945:

2010 Devil May Care
2008 Eight Belles
1999 Excellent Meeting
1999 Three Ring
1995 Serena's Song
1988 Winning Colors
1984 Life's Magic
1984 Althea
1982 Cupecoy's Joy
1980 Genuine Risk
1959 Silver Spoon

That's a grand total of just 11 fillies. And 2 of them won it.

I think the last filly to enter the Preakness was Rachel Alexandra, she won.

I think the last filly to enter the Belmont is Rags to Riches, she won.

More importantly, think of the way Rachel Alexandra won the Preakness. She got into a speed duel with eventual wire-to-wire Breeders Cup Sprint winner Big Drama ... and she still held off the dream pace setup Derby winner.

More importantly, think of the way Rags To Riches won the Belmont. She stumbled badly at the start...and won a heroic stretch duel over a very respectable horse in 2-time Horse of the Year Curlin.

People don't foolishly enter fillies in classic races. Look at the last 70 years... it just doesn't happen, ever. Rachel Alexandra would have been the top figure horse going into the Derby, and she opted for the Oaks.

There are things in horse racing that are broke. The graded earnings system never was one of them.

It's a case of trying to fix what wasn't broke.