CBO: Fiscal Cliff Could Trigger a Recession

[Cannon Shell]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...ostpop_emailed

[Danzig]

'4% fall in defense spending'

what, and no attack yet?

'Note, however, that federal spending remains at a new plateau of about $3.54 trillion, or some $800 billion more than the last pre-recession year of 2007. One way to think about this is that most of the $830 billion stimulus of 2009 has now become part of the federal budget baseline. The "emergency" spending of the stimulus has now become permanent, as we predicted it would.'

like i said, temporary is always anything but.

[OldDog]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...ostpop_emailed

Facts are damn pesky things.

[Rudeboyelvis]

So much for the middle class not bearing the brunt of the "Fiscal Cliff"

WASHINGTON (AP) - Everyone who pays income tax - and some who don't -will feel it.

So will doctors who accept Medicare, people who get unemployment aid, defense contractors, air traffic controllers, national park rangers and companies that do research and development.

The package of tax increases and spending cuts known as the "fiscal cliff" takes effect in January unless Congress passes a budget deal by then. The economy would be hit so hard that it would likely sink into recession in the first half of 2013, economists say.

And no matter who you are, it will be all but impossible to avoid the pain.

Middle income families would have to pay an average of about $2,000 more next year, the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center has calculated.

Up to 3.4 million jobs would be lost, the Congressional Budget Office estimates. The unemployment rate would reach 9.1 percent from the current 7.9 percent. Stocks could plunge. The nonpartisan CBO estimates the total cost of the cliff in 2013 at $671 billion.

Collectively, the tax increases would be the steepest to hit Americans in 60 years when measured as a percentage of the economy.

"There would be a huge shock effect to the U.S. economy," says Mark Vitner, an economist at Wells Fargo.

Most of the damage - roughly two-thirds - would come from the tax increases. But the spending cuts would cause pain, too.

The bleak scenario could push the White House and Congress to reach a deal before year's end. On Tuesday, Congress returns for a post-election session that could last through Dec. 31. At a minimum, analysts say some temporary compromise might be reached, allowing a final deal to be cut early next year.

Still, uncertainty about a final deal could cause many companies to further delay hiring and spend less. Already, many U.S. companies say anxiety about the fiscal cliff has led them to put off plans to expand or hire.

A breakdown in negotiations could also ignite turmoil in financial markets, Vitner said. It could resemble the 700-point fall in the Dow Jones industrial average in 2008 after the House initially rejected the $700 billion bailout of major banks.

Since President Barack Obama's re-election, nervous investors have sold stocks. The Standard & Poor's 500 index sank 2.3 percent last week, its worst weekly drop since June. The sell-off resulted in part from anxiety over higher tax rates on investment gains once the fiscal cliff kicks in.



http://www.myfoxtampabay.com/story/2...e-fiscal-cliff

[Danzig]

i have no doubt that a bandaid will be applied before years end.
that way, the departing congress can leave the mess to the new one coming in.
you know, like always.