Oaks Day -- the other Stakes

[herkhorse]

I'm having a hard time with the Alysheba, I keep landing on the Pletcher

[3kings]

Not a stakes race but I love the #2 in R1.

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by herkhorse

I'm having a hard time with the Alysheba, I keep landing on the Pletcher

Not me. I think Successful Dan's affinity for CD is the deciding edge. Why is Nate's Mineshaft 5-1 after that last? Been a monster for Smith.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

Not me. I think Successful Dan's affinity for CD is the deciding edge. Why is Nate's Mineshaft 5-1 after that last? Been a monster for Smith.

I really dont think MB looks at Beyers when making a morning line.
Beyers are probably the single biggest factor in determining how a race will be bet.

[tywizard]

Will anyone be using Nate's Mineshaft?

I'm taking a stand against....

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by tywizard

Will anyone be using Nate's Mineshaft?

I'm taking a stand against....

Why stand against 5-1 as the 4th choice with only 5 real contenders?

[tywizard]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

Why stand against 5-1 as the 4th choice with only 5 real contenders?

Because the race isn't at FG.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by tywizard

Will anyone be using Nate's Mineshaft?

I'm taking a stand against....

He's the only horse I am using. I can go 6 deep and end up with MMM. I understand the beyer# will affect NM's odds in a negative way but there are plenty of good horses in here and enough question marks to keep the odds fair. Fort Larned is listed at 10-1 and anyone thinking they'll get that is dreaming.
I see 6 horses under 10-1 and 4 horses over 20-1. Single and spread elsewhere for me.

[tywizard]

I guess my thought is that you have two classy horses with proven success at the track that are in very good form (MMM/SD).....I will cover with Fort Larned before NM.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by tywizard

I guess my thought is that you have two classy horses with proven success at the track that are in very good form (MMM/SD).....I will cover with Fort Larned before NM.

If the M/L is anywhere close to the final odds FL would be the value. They both are all or nothing types. I prefer horses who have proven surface form but NM is working so well I'll take my chances.
I can't understand why Borel isn't on FL instead of a jockey the trainer has used only twice in two years. Maybe it means nothing but I prefer someone who has ridden the horse at least once before.